The U.S. president has indicated that he’s done negotiating with Tehran, that the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. is over, and that the public can expect more strikes to be exchanged between the two nations—a decision that is bound to rack up some monumental costs.
A new analysis of U.S. expenses through the four-month war thus far by Popular Information’s Stephen Semler found that Trump officials have dramatically lowballed Congress on the real cost of the conflict (Semler also co-founded the U.S. foreign policy think tank Security Policy Reform Institute).
Last week, Director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought told the House Appropriations Committee that the U.S. had spent $30 billion on the Iran War. According to Semler’s estimates, the true cost is closer to $103 billion.
Semler argued that Vought himself must have been aware of the figure’s inaccuracy. Days before his House testimony, Vought wrote and signed a formal request “on behalf of the president” for $88 billion in supplemental funding from Congress, including a $72 billion increase for the war effort.
But even that $72 billion figure doesn’t offer a complete image of the war’s total price tag. Semler noted that Popular Information had previously calculated the war cost nearly that much—about $71.8 billion—during the first 60 days. The Trump administration is expected to ask for even more money to fund the conflict through upcoming reconciliation bills.
In order to build an independent analysis of the Pentagon’s expenditures, Semler analyzed procurement info, operating and support data, open-source intelligence, statements from U.S. officials, and media reports.
Over the first 120 days of the conflict, Semler tallied $28.5 billion in mobilization, administrative, and immediate combat costs; $46.7 billion spent on missiles, interceptors, and bombs; $20.3 billion on damaged or destroyed military assets; $2.9 billion spent on Israel’s bombs and interceptors; and an additional $4.8 billion on war costs to nonmilitary U.S. agencies.
Yet no one in charge of the government—from the White House to top congressional Republicans—has posited exactly how the U.S. will pay for the war. Whereas taxes were raised in previous wars (such as World War I, World War II, and the Korean War) in order to fund conflict, the current administration has so far offered no such solution.
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