The United States host Belgium in a FIFA World Cup last-16 tie in Seattle on Monday night. Can the United States overcome a familiar European opponent and reach the quarter-finals for the first time since 2002? We look at five subplots ahead of the match.
Thibaut Courtois stopped others to beat the United States in the round of 16 of the World Cup.
Those three players, and perhaps the memory of a nervy, relentless two hours of knockout football is all that remains. Much, much more has changed – particularly for a US side now steered by Mauricio Pochettino with players largely playing top-tier football in Europe’s biggest leagues.
The winners of Monday’s match between the United States and Belgium get the winners of Spain vs Portugal in the quarter-finals, but neither side is looking that far ahead. This is the closest match in the last 16, according to the Opta supercomputer with the US given a 37.2% chance to progress, Belgium 36.5% and a draw leading to penalties at 26.3%.
Here are five storylines to keep an eye on in Seattle.
What Would Another Early Lead Mean for the US Against Belgium?
It would hardly be surprising to see this match start favourably for the US. Home energy has been a thing for the United States as co-hosts, but there’s also the reality of how the tournament has gone for them and Belgium.
Early leads have been the United States’ thing at this tournament. They’ve scored three goals in the first 11 minutes of matches, while only the Netherlands have come close to that, scoring three goals in the opening 15 minutes.
The US scored early goals against Paraguay and Australia, and those felt like ideal scenarios to double down on how they seem set on playing early in matches at this tournament – on the front foot, attacking, taking on defenders and fluidly getting the ball into the box with effective runs and ambitious passes. A lead meant those opponents needed to at least consider opening up and attempting to attack rather than sit in a low block and patiently wait for their moment. It resulted in more attacking opportunities for the US with more space.
At the other end, they have conceded 14 or fewer successful passes in the final third in the first half in three of their four matches at this World Cup.
Belgium haven’t been great defensively, either. Their 5.52 xG against is the highest of the remaining teams, and that has come against Egypt, Iran, New Zealand and Senegal. Most of it came against Senegal, with Belgium’s 3.58 xG against standing as the highest conceded in a match by any team to reach the knockout stages in any of their matches. They also haven’t been strong starters at this tournament, so there’s every possibility for another early US goal.
But what that means against Belgium compared to the four opponents the US have had is likely a different story, both in terms of quality and the simple fact that Rudi Garcia’s side have not been particularly phased by going behind at this tournament.
Belgium went a goal down 20 minutes into their first match against Egypt, then equalised via a 66th-minute own goal. They didn’t trail against Iran (0-0) or New Zealand (5-1), but went 2-0 behind against Senegal before scoring twice to get to extra-time and win it from the penalty spot with the latest goal scored in World Cup history.
There have been extended periods of play during which Belgium have had more of the ball yet looked like a team that wasn’t going to create chances to stay in this tournament. See below when, for nearly 60 minutes against Senegal, it frankly looked like Belgium valued a summer vacation over World Cup glory. The same can be said about the first 30 or so against Egypt.
But when they need to attack, they’ve been capable of breaking teams down. They’ve done it in part by breaking lines. Coming into the last 16, Belgium’s 75 line-breaking passes leading to danger are equal with Spain and trailed only England (79) while 14 have resulted in chances created, which was joint most with France. They’re doing that by getting the ball into the box through the defensive line, with their 35 line-breaking passes into the penalty area the most in the tournament entering the last 16. They also led with 37 line-breaking passes that led to shots, and five of their nine goals have come from line-breaking passes.
Looks like the work of a certain number 7, doesn’t it? Kevin De Bruyne has played eight line-breaking passes into the penalty area, which is second at the tournament only to France’s Leandro Trossard. Entering the last 16, the Arsenal man had a tournament-leading 16 chances created from open play. He’s been moved around the pitch along with Doku, so it’ll be interesting to see how the US deal with the uncertainty of where the duo will be.
Alex Freeman has been a key difference for the US at this World Cup when compared to the last. At 21 years old and five months after his move from Orlando City to Villarreal, he’ll be a key element of a US defence that has gone largely untested at the tournament with their preferred XI on the pitch.
If Doku is on the left, it’s going to fall on Freeman to contain him with help from Chris Richards. It’ll be interesting to see what’s asked of Tim Ream, Richards, Freeman and Adams. Pochettino isn’t asking Dest to do everything, and it makes for a more comfortable defensive situation on that right side if the US get caught up – especially given the danger posed by the player coming down the Belgium left wing.
It was at this stage of the World Cup three and a half years ago in which a promising US side were exposed by a seasoned European team. The Netherlands scored three goals in space in which these Belgium players are more than capable of inflicting the same tournament-ending pain.
But the US haven’t been bad going forward either.
Can the Us Continue Their Impressive One-on-One Play Against Belgium, and Should They Be Getting on the End of More Crosses?
For all the feel-good talk in player interviews about the US being a collective unit that works well together rather than a team made up of individuals, it’s interesting to consider the quality of their one-on-one play. Both can be true at once.
The United States’ 49 successful take-ons through four matches were more than any of the remaining teams at the start of the last 16, and Morocco (51) and France (50) have just narrowly surpassed that mark in one more game. Their 45.8% success rate from take-ons is the best among remaining teams not named Belgium (48.9%).
The most promising aspect of what’s naturally seen as an individual’s data point is there’s not just one person doing it well. Dest (8/16) and Miles Robinson and
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