After agreeing to free agency signings with Marvin Bagley III and Tyus Jones last week, the Denver Nuggets are expected to see more clarity on a number of free agency topics this week.
So far, the Nuggets have made four distinct additions (or re-signings) to their team: Bagley, Jones, and the selections of Trevon Brazile and Bryce Hopkins in the 2026 NBA Draft. Those four players are all expected to factor into Denver’s bench depth as the Nuggets sort out what happens with their starting unit. Tim Hardaway Jr. was also signed away from the Nuggets by the Miami Heat, so they did experience a free agency loss.
Nuggets fans who were hoping for more substantial changes should pay attention this week, as several events are expected to add clarity to Denver’s ongoing free agency decisions. Let’s lay them out in chronological order:
July 6th – The Moratorium and Peyton Watson
This is a small detail in free agency, but NBA contracts aren’t actually allowed to be finalized in the new year until after the six-day Moratorium period. It’s why the Miami Heat haven’t announced the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade or the Toronto Raptors reacting to the Kawhi Leonard trade.
The Moratorium period will end on Monday, and a flood of new signings and trades will be announced as a result, including Denver’s own acknowledgment of the Bagley and Jones signings.
Another important detail on why this matters is Peyton Watson and restricted free agency. The only restricted free agent to reportedly change teams so far is Walker Kessler, who was signed by the Utah Jazz and traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for draft pick compensation. That deal will also be finalized on July 6th, but it highlights the flaw of restricted free agency in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement:
Restricted Free Agents can agree to terms on a new deal with a different team at any point when free agency opens, but the two-day match period for the incumbent team doesn’t even start until after the Moratorium ends today. Said another way, the 48-hour clock doesn’t start ticking until July 6th, even if a new deal had been agreed to on July 2nd, because the league didn’t recognize the contract until after the Moratorium.
That’s probably one of the bigger holdups for teams trying to poach restricted free agents. The Lakers bypassed this process for Walker Kessler by offering two first round picks and two swaps to ensure that the Jazz wouldn’t match the contract and the Lakers would actually get their guy. For teams like the Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets that might have or still have interest in Watson, they probably didn’t feel the same pressure to approach the Nuggets with pick compensation in a trade. That might still happen though.
Will teams like the Clippers, Nets, or a wildcard team start courting Watson a bit more seriously and present him an actual offer sheet? Would it be aggressive enough for the Nuggets to not match? Under almost all circumstances, Denver should just match most Watson contracts. Still, if a team throws in some serious incentives or trade bonuses, a player option, and a high starting salary, that could throw Denver for a loop.
All of this to say, after the Moratorium lifts, the restricted free agent market begins in earnest.
July 8th – Jonas Valanciunas’ contract guarantee
Back in November, the Nuggets renegotiated with Valanciunas and gave him a partial guarantee of $2 million on his $10 million salary for 2026-27 in order to move the guarantee date from before free agency started on June 29th to after free agency fully got going. The new guarantee date is July 8th, and all indications are pointing toward the Nuggets making a move with Valanciunas before that guarantee date happens.
Denver signed Marvin Bagley, assumably, to be the backup center this next season. He’s on a minimum contract, but the big reason Bagley would agree to that deal so early is if he were promised some sort of role or opportunity.
With Denver’s cap crunch and a backup center already in place, as well as Valanciunas’ reported interested in heading back overseas, the Nuggets are very likely to do *something* with Valanciunas. They don’t want his $10 million on their books, but another team might. The Lakers have had reported interest in Valanciunas after trading for Walker Kessler and trading away Deandre Ayton.
If Denver were to add Valanciunas and get something back, that would be a solid move. If they send out Valanciunas and a second round pick to acquire Jake LaRavia and Bronny James, that will sound some serious alarm bells.
Before July 10th – Rookie Contracts
The Nuggets start Summer League in Las Vegas on Friday, and many Nuggets fans are excited to get their first look at Trevon Brazile and Bryce Hopkins in a Nuggets uniform. That’s always a right of passage and can hopefully be an enjoyable thing.
I’m interested in seeing what contracts those guys sign, specifically a full-time deal or a two-way contract.
Without factoring in Brazile or Hopkins, the Nuggets have 11 roster spots currently filled or projected to be filled. That includes Valanciunas and doesn’t include Watson, so let’s just keep that number at 11 assuming Valanciunas goes and Watson stays. It means Denver’s got four more roster spots to manage in some manner.
Denver’s own free agents beyond even Watson – Spencer Jones, Bruce Brown, Jalen Pickett, and even David Roddy – could factor into those spots. So too could Brazile and Hopkins though. I’m projecting Brazile signs a full-time deal and Hopkins signs a two-way, but both could get full-time deals or two-ways.
It’s up to the Nuggets to figure out what makes the most sense for their roster, but keep in mind, a second round pick can sign for a full-time spot and be paid less than the veteran minimum. That almost assuredly appeals to a Nuggets roster in a cap crunch.
Unknown – LeBron James’ Decision
The Nuggets feel like they’re in the race for LeBron James, or at least that’s what they’re projecting outwardly. James’ free agency fit appears to be down to about six teams: Cleveland, Golden State, Miami, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Denver.
All of those teams offer different things basketball wise and personally for LeBron, but the Nuggets’ fit is likely the cleanest on the court. LeBron’s ability to adapt his game to the situation makes him a perfect pairing for Denver’s offense surrounding the NBA’s most reactive player in Nikola Jokic. Those two would make music on the court together, and James would be able to stand out in Denver without having to carry a significant regular season burden.
Of course, when James makes his decision is a complete unknown to all but those in his closest circle. In previous years, he’s decided around 10 to 14 days into free agency. That would imply it likely doesn’t happen this week, but that’s pure speculation.
If James were to decide Denver is the place for him, that gives the Nuggets a completely different perspective on how they can operate for the rest of free agency. Starting spots would shift, trades would likely occur, and new avenues for team building would emerge.
If James decides to finish his career somewhere else, the far more likely scenario, then Denver will have to move on and approach things in a different way. They might be a bit more insistent on changes, or they might be insistent on keeping the group together to maximize talent.
Either way, Denver’s going to understand a lot more about their 2026-27 plans once LeBron decides if he will be part of them or not.
The next steps for Denver Nuggets as Free Agency wears on Mile High Sports.
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