Only 16 teams remain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but who are the most likely team to win the trophy on 19 July? We check in on the latest Opta supercomputer projections.
We’re now down to the final 16 teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the seemingly never-ending tournament schedule sees the round of 16 begin just a day after the final batch of the last 32 ties were completed.
Eighty-eight games have been played so far, but the final 16 will matter more than any that have taken place already (… okay, maybe not the third/fourth play-off game, but you get what we’re trying to say).
Ahead of the eight ties in the round of 16, we look at what the Opta supercomputer is now projecting after the group stage and last 32 games have all been played.
Before a ball was kicked at the 2026 World Cup, the Opta supercomputer was backing Spain for glory in North America, with Luis de la Fuente’s side winning the competition across 16.1% of the 25,000 pre-tournament simulations.
Spain are no longer the favourites to win the World Cup, and their chances of glory have decreased to 13.0%. They opened their campaign with an unexpected 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, which may have given the supercomputer the jitters, but they also have the issue of being in the same half of the draw as an exceptional France side.
Admittedly, it’s hardly a shock that France and Spain are in the same half of the knockout bracket, and it was always expected that both would win their respective groups. But the Opta supercomputer perhaps underestimated how great France would perform in their first four games at the tournament. There’s also the fact that Germany were expected to be France’s opponents in the last 16, but their shock penalty shootout defeat to Paraguay in the round of 32 has opened up France’s route to the final a bit more.
Didier Deschamps has led his French side to two successive World Cup finals, first beating Croatia in 2018 before losing on penalties to Argentina in 2022. They are being given the highest chance of reach the final again across the 16 remaining sides (44.7%) and are unsurprisingly now the favourites to win the World Cup (28.9%).
They are over 12 percentage points above second favourites Argentina in the latest projections, with the reigning champions winning the World Cup again across 16.3% of the current 25,000 supercomputer simulations.
No team have won back-to-back men’s World Cup titles since Brazil in 1962, but the form of
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