Never have the odds been stacked against England more, even just based purely on conditions and environment alone.
Taking on Mexico, in Mexico City, in the same stadium where the “Hand of God” cursed a nation for 40 years, is a daunting task in itself.
But when you consider they will play at over 7000ft above sea level, having had no time to acclimatise at all, taking on a team who have played their entire tournament at altitude, and are in resurgent form, there is not a single variable in Thomas Tuchel’s favour.
England have done what they can, in the circumstances, to be as ready as possible. The question is, will that be enough?
Altitude training
Given the group they were dealt, England were always likely to be headed for Mexico City. Even if they have made that journey more arduous than it should have been.
As a result, Tuchel and his team took advice from the British Olympic Association and Team GB to get tips and tricks for how they have acclimatised to high-altitude matches or events beforehand.
Much of the feedback was irrelevant. In reality, you need to be at altitude for weeks to be on a level playing field with the Mexicans. Yes, not all Mexico players ply their trade at home, but they have been here since before the start of the World Cup, so they will be getting all the oxygen they need into their red blood cells.
Kane’s winner against DR Congo (Photo: PA)Players have spent time utilising state-of-the-art training facilities back home, such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, but at their Kansas training facility, replicating such environments has not been possible. With the schedule and the effect such training could have had on group stage matches, there was no window of opportunity.
England cannot even arrive late in Mexico to avoid the worst effects of high altitude activity, given Fifa require them to host an opening training session in Mexico City the day before the match.
Instead, England face a difficult night ahead of the epic encounter, where sleep will be affected by a lack of oxygen.
It is not a case of them being underprepared; they have been powerless to train for anything like what they are about to encounter.
Mexican fans will target England
Here in the Mexican capital, there is a clamour for details of England’s hotel.
Mexican journalists are understood to be looking to gain information they can leak about the whereabouts of the team’s accommodation, so supporters can line the streets, bring their drums, pyro and dancing shoes to keep England up all night prior to the match.
The streets were full outside Ecuador’s hotel in the last round, and it worked. England are taking precautions, however. The players will be given earplugs, white noise machines and other noise-cancelling equipment to give them a better chance of getting some sleep.
There are plans to put up roadblocks outside the venue the FA are desperate to keep close to their chests. The football-mad population here are a determined bunch, so expect at least some disruption.
England’s other issues
Declan Rice is not injured, the player himself insists, but he is playing through pain.
He asked to come off during England’s win over DR Congo. Speaking with the Arsenal midfielder last week, he put a brave face on it, as he often does, but revealed it is a daily struggle to cope with lower back pain which has affected his hamstrings.
Tuchel believes Rice will be fit enough to face Mexico with the condition manageable. In such difficult circumstances, however, it would represent something of a risk to put Rice through the pain barrier when there is less oxygen in the air. Kobbie Mainoo is poised.
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Kat Lucas: Six reasons I fear for England against Mexico Pete Hall: Man Utd insiders ‘bewildered’ by Kobbie Mainoo’s lack of England minutesYou cannot have a discussion over England’s team selection without laser focus on who plays right-back. Reece James insisted he was “fine” as he walked through the mixed zone in Atlanta, but he won’t be fit enough to return in Mexico.
Jarell Quansah and Djed Spence will likely compete for a starting right-back berth, given the former should have recovered from the setback that kept him out of the Congo encounter. Ezra Konsa is another option to play there.
Anthony Gordon’s two assists off the bench gives Tuchel a selection headache on the left of England’s attack. While it is understood Bukayo Saka could come back on the right, replacing Noni Madueke.
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