After an encouraging group-stage campaign, can Morocco spring an early upset and send the Dutch out of the 2026 World Cup? We look ahead to Tuesday’s World Cup clash with our Netherlands vs Morocco prediction and preview.
Netherlands vs Morocco: The Key Insights
The Netherlands are tagged as favourites here, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 47.6% win probability to Morocco’s 25.0%. Tuesday’s clash will mark just the second World Cup meeting between these two sides, after a group stage clash in Orlando in 1994 ended in the Dutch sealing a 2-1 victory. Ronald Koeman’s side have progressed from seven of their last 10 World Cup knockout ties since 2010, though three of their last five have gone down to a penalty shootout.The fourth round-of-32 match at this year’s World Cup will see the Netherlands face Morocco at the Estadio Monterrey in a meeting between two of the form sides across the group stage.
Morocco enjoyed a strong group-stage campaign, picking up an earnest 1-1 with Brazil before recording victories over Scotland (1-0) and Haiti (4-2) to finish as runners-up in Group C.
Mohamed Ouahbi’s side have already joined elite company, becoming just the third African nation to reach the knockout stages at consecutive World Cups, after Nigeria (1994 and 1998) and Ghana (2006 and 2010).
They wrote themselves into history in 2022 when they became the first African side to reach the semi-finals and Ouahbi will now be hoping to guide the Atlas Lions one step further.
But Morocco must first overcome a Netherlands side that has made an equally impressive start.
Ronald Koeman’s side opened with a hard-fought 2-2 draw against Japan, before blowing past Sweden (5-1) and Tunisia (3-1) to finish top of Group F with seven points.
The Oranje will be further boosted by their strong knockout record of late, having progressed from seven of their last 10 World Cup knockout matches since 2010.
Three of those last five ties, however, have been decided by penalty shootouts, the most recent of which ended in a dramatic 4-3 shootout defeat in the quarter-finals to eventual champions Argentina in 2022.
Koeman will surely be more confident this time around, with his side having displayed some tremendous form in the opening weeks of the tournament.
The Netherlands have already found the net 10 times across three matches, equalling their highest total at this stage of a World Cup (also 10 in 2014). Their tally is also the joint-highest of any side across the tournament so far, alongside Germany and France.
Above map excludes own goals, as they carry no xG valueMorocco, though, have shown they can be just as threatening in front of goal.
Ouahbi’s side scored six goals across the group stage and set a new national record with four goals in their victory over Haiti last Wednesday.
That was the first time Morocco had scored four goals in a World Cup match, taking their overall tournament tally to 26 and moving them past Nigeria’s record of 23 to become the highest-scoring African nation in World Cup history.
Much of that attacking threat has come through breakout star Cody Gakpo and
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