After being held to a shock draw by Cape Verde, can Uruguay bounce back against Spain and seal their spot in the knockouts? We look ahead to Saturday’s clash of titans with our Uruguay vs Spain prediction and preview.
Uruguay vs Spain: The Key Insights
Spain are heavy favourites to win this one, with the Opta supercomputer giving Luis de la Fuente’s side a dominant 62.2% chance of winning to Uruguay’s 15.8%. Saturday’s contest will mark the third World Cup meeting between Uruguay and Spain, and their first since a goalless draw in Udine in the group stages of Italia ‘90. La Celeste have won just one of their last nine World Cup matches played in Mexico (D3 L5) – a 1-0 extra-time win over the USSR in the quarter-finals in 1970.Ahead of the first matchday at this year’s World Cup, few would have expected Group H to unfold as it has, with Uruguay facing Spain in Guadalajara on Friday in the heavyweight clash of the group.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side have flattered to deceive this summer, being held to draws by Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde in matches they could have, and in all likelihood, should have won.
Their opening draw with Saudi Arabia appeared an early blip but La Celeste were then held to a shock draw by debutants Cape Verde in their second game, with Kevin Pina’s spectacular free-kick stealing the headlines before Helio Varela cancelled out Agustin Canobbio’s strike.
Uruguay will be desperate to avoid another similar result, only once before drawing three consecutive games at the World Cup, between 2002 and 2010.
While they were eliminated in the group stage in 2022, they have never failed to reach the knockout rounds in consecutive World Cup campaigns, leaving Bielsa’s side with plenty of work to do.
The Opta supercomputer currently gives them a 38.2% of progressing to the next round, a stark contrast to Spain who have already secured qualification and are given an 83.7% chance of topping Group H.
Making matters tougher for Uruguay is their record in Mexico. They have won just one of their last nine World Cup matches there (D3 L5) – a 1-0 extra-time victory over the USSR in the 1970 quarter finals.
Spain, meanwhile, scraped off the rust in some fashion in their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia.
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