Who will claim second place in Group D? We look ahead to Friday’s clash in San Francisco with our Paraguay vs Australia prediction and preview.
Paraguay vs Australia: The Key Insights
Paraguay are unbeaten in their previous six FIFA World Cup group games played on matchday three (W3 D3), and are Opta’s favourites to extend that streak with victory here at 38.0%. Australia are unbeaten in their five meetings with Paraguay in all competitions (W2 D3). However, the Socceroos have never beaten a CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup (D1 L4).Paraguay and Australia do battle for second place in Group D, with both sides looking to join USA in the World Cup knockout stages.
The two teams arrive for the winner-takes-all clash in San Francisco having recorded a victory and defeat in their opening two matches.
A draw would be enough for Australia, who have the edge on goal difference, to secure a top-two finish. All would not be lost for whoever has to settle for third place, but they would have to wait on results from elsewhere before planning for the round of 32.
Paraguay responded to their heavy 4-1 defeat against USA by somehow holding out for a narrow 1-0 win over Türkiye, whose elimination was subsequently confirmed with a game to spare.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side did so despite playing over half the game with 10 men, after Miguel Almirón received the first red for covering his mouth during a confrontation at the finals.
Matías Galarza’s goal after just 64 seconds – the earliest winner in a World Cup match – proved enough for La Albirroja, who faced the most shots in a single game while keeping a clean sheet (32) at the finals since North Korea during their shock defeat of Italy in 1966 (also 32).
Having also set up Maurício’s consolation against USA, Julio Enciso became only the third Paraguay player to provide an assist in multiple World Cup matches – after Francisco Arce (three) and Roque Santa Cruz (two) – and the youngest to do so at 22 years and 148 days old.
The former Brighton and Ipswich Town forward could now become the first player to assist goals in all three group games at the finals since Michael Ballack for Germany in 2002.
Enciso’s attacking creativity and threat will be crucial – even more so with Almirón serving a one-match suspension – as Paraguay look to record two group-stage victories at the World Cup for the very first time.
Australia, meanwhile, are hoping to bounce back from their 2-0 defeat against USA, as they bid to reach the knockout stages in successive World Cups for the first time.
After taking down Türkiye by the same scoreline in their opener, the Socceroos were beaten by a Cameron Burgess own-goal and Alex Freeman strike later in the first half in Seattle.
Burgess’ own-goal was the third that Australia have conceded at the World Cup (matching the tallies of Bulgaria, Morocco and Switzerland), with only Mexico (four) recording more.
Although, it is at the other end of the field that head coach Tony Popovic will be slightly concerned. Having averaged 13.2 shots per game across four World Cups between 2006 and 2018, Australia are averaging just 6.7 per game across the last two editions of the tournament – including just five against the co-hosts last time out.
While a point will be enough for them to secure the runner-up spot in Group D, the Socceroos know there must be a significant improvement in their attacking output if they are to advance in the tournament, and stand any chance of potentially reaching the quarter-finals for the first time in their history.
Paraguay vs Australia Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever competitive meeting between the nations.
Australia have never lost to Paraguay, remaining unbeaten in all five previous encounters (W2 D3). Crucially, though, they were all international friendlies played on home soil – with current head coach Popovic playing in three of them.
History also suggests replicating that on a global stage will be more difficult for the Socceroos. Indeed, they have never beaten a CONMEBOL nation in five attempts at the World Cup (D1 L4), with their last such game seeing them lose 2-1 to eventual champions Argentina in the round of 16 in Qatar.
By contrast, Paraguay are unbeaten in their two previous World Cup games against sides from the AFC. After beating Iraq in the 1986 group stages, they edged out Japan on penalties following a goalless draw in their last-16 clash 24 years later.
Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
The Opta supercomputer marginally favours a Paraguay victory, with Alfaro’s side having won 38.0% of the 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Australia’s chances of claiming three points are rated at 23.4%, with a draw – which would also secure second place in Group D – at 38.6%.
Those percentages and the recent form book make this a tough one to call.
Australia have won three of their last four World Cup group games (L1) – more victories than in their previous 16 combined (W2 D4 L10).
Paraguay, meanwhile, are unbeaten across their previous six group-stage fixtures played on matchday three (W3 D3).
Paraguay vs Australia Squads
Paraguay: Roberto Fernández, Orlando Gill, Gastón Olveira, Gustavo Velázquez, Omar Alderete, Juan José Cáceres, Fabián Balbuena, Júnior Alonso, José Canale, Gustavo Gómez, Alexandro Maidana, Diego Gómez, Mauricio, Andrés Cubas, Damián Bobadilla, Alejandro Romero, Julio Enciso, Braian Ojeda, Matías Galarza, Ramón Sosa, Antonio Sanabria, Miguel Almirón, Álex Arce, Gabriel Ávalos, Gustavo Caballero, Isidro Pitta.
Australia: Mathew Ryan, Paul Izzo, Patrick Beach, Milos Degenek, Alessandro Circati, Jacob Italiano, Jordan Bos, Jason Geria, Kai Trewin, Aziz Behich, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Lucas Herrington, Connor Metcalfe, Ajdin Hrustic, Awer Mabil, Aiden O’Neill, Cameron Devlin, Cristian Volpato, Jackson Irvine, Paul Okon-Engstler, Mathew Leckie, Mohamed Touré, Nestory Irankunda, Nishan Velupillay, Tete Yengi.
Paraguay vs Australia Predicted Lineups
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Paraguay vs Australia Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview Opta Analyst.
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