Andy Burnham must decide whether he wants to be a “Churchillian” figure willing to fund what the UK military needs to prepare for war, a former Army chief has told The i Paper.
Military insiders are on edge over what will happen to defence spending to ready Britain’s Armed Forces for conflict if the new Labour MP for Makerfield succeeds Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
The former Manchester mayor has so far refused to say whether he would spend more than the £13.5bn currently on the table from Starmer and Rachel Reeves to fund the Defence Investment Plan (DIP), claiming only that he is “not squeamish” about cutting the welfare bill to fund defence.
Lord Dannatt, who was head of the British Army between 2006 and 2009, said if he became prime minister Burnham would be “foolish in the extreme” if he tried to assert that the UK is safe with the existing funding settlement.
Lord Dannatt told The i Paper: “Assuming Andy Burnham finds his way into No 10 sooner or later, he will not be able to duck confronting the calls for increased defence spending.”
Starmer has refused to commit more than £13.5bn to the DIP, despite the resignations of John Healey and Al Carns from the Ministry of Defence and warnings from the defence sector and Whitehall chiefs that £18bn is needed to equip the UK for possible war with Russia.
New Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis was forced to attend a Nato meeting with counterparts this week without the blueprint. No 10 says it will be published before the full Nato summit of leaders on 7 July.
If delayed again, Jarvis would have to go to the summit having to endure criticism from the US and European Nato members who have already upped their spending, Lord Dannatt said.
‘Burnham has a choice’
“With every week that passes more time is lost before a meaningful rearmament programme can begin and the risks to the security of this country increase,” he continued.
“The defence lobby, however, will keep up the pressure on the Government and the realisation of our precarious situation will gain wider understanding.
“He [Burnham] has a choice – to either order the Treasury to come up with the money to get us to 3 per cent by 2029, or to call out the defence lobby and assert that the UK is safe despite the findings of the Strategic Defence Review.
“He would be wise to follow the former course and foolish in the extreme to follow the latter. Given that he wants to bring change and hope across the country and the economy, he needs to bite the defence bullet and get that lobby off his back. Is he going to be a Churchill or a Starmer?”
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s first two years in office have been dominated by foreign affairs (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty)Others within the industry are jittery because they have heard little from Burnham on any defence policy if he were to become PM.
He also warned earlier this month that all public procurement, including buying new military kit, would need to have a “social value”.
One industry figure said: “Few in the defence industry have any real sense of Burnham, what he stands for, and how he’d prioritise national security.”
UK must prepare to deter conflict with Russia by 2030
Another industry insider said that whoever becomes prime minister must make the procurement of new kit faster and more efficient if they are to match the Russian threat.
“Ukraine has shown that warfare is driven by rapidly evolving software and AI,” they said. “The UK’s deterrent posture and national resilience now depend on embracing innovative start-ups and emerging technologies. Whether Starmer stays, or Burnham takes the keys to Downing Street, there must be change.”
However, others are more hopeful that Burnham would rise to the challenge.
“Whether it’s Wes [Streeting, another leadership contender] coming out in favour of war bonds and a multinational defence bank or Burnham proposing to cut welfare to fund defence, we’re finally beginning to have a real national conversation about how we must prepare to deter conflict with Russia by 2030,” a defence source said.
Another defence industry insider said they hoped a Burnham premiership would provide more certainty and funding for the sector. They said: “The only way is up from what we have now, surely. Things can only get better.”
A senior Labour source and Burnham ally said that his inexperience internationally and on defence should not be held against him.
His strength, they said, is not in transport reform but in his ability to identify needs and find creative, effective solutions.
The source said: “Did Tony Blair or Keir Starmer have any meaningful foreign or defence experience before becoming PM? Is being leader of the opposition, which is largely ceremonial, better prep than being a mayor with a proper budget and running things?”
Analysis: Burnham must prove himself on the world stage
By Molly Blackall, Global Affairs Correspondent
Ask voters what Andy Burnham is known for, and the answers will be much the same; transport, urban regeneration, northern leadership in the Covid pandemic.
What you won’t hear is the military, relations with the White House, or the threat from Russia. But should Burnham grasp the keys to No 10, these issues are set to dominate his in-tray.
Critics of Burnham cite his lack of experience in international affairs as a weakness; he re-enters Westminster from the mayorship of Greater Manchester, and his previous stints in government have been predominantly in health, culture and finance.
This concern is especially salient at a moment of immense geopolitical turbulence – with war in Ukraine, an increasingly aggressive Russia and an America wavering in its support for Europe.
Whether Burnham likes it or not, defence and geopolitics are set to play a key role if he takes over from Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, thanks to both pressures abroad and political sagas at home.
Just as Starmer’s first two years in office have been dominated by the world stage, Burnham is also likely to have his time taken up grappling with foreign affairs.
Ben Judah, a former Foreign Office special advisor who is now a visiting fellow at Chatham House, said: “Andy Burnham, if he becomes prime minister, will be a prime minister defined by foreign policy. Geopolitics keeps on being the top story.”
A series of “bear traps” lie ahead this summer for whoever resides in No 10, according to Judah. Already looming are Nato and EU summits in July, followed by the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in November and the G20 in Miami in December.
“First impressions of a prime minister are very important, and none more so than first impressions of a prime minister on the world stage,” Judah said.
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