Benjamin Netanyahu has traded heavily on his alliance with Donald Trump in recent years, deploying billboards across Israeli cities during election campaigns showing the two leaders together.
That partnership is no longer such a valuable asset for a prime minister fighting for his political future, as Trump pursues a deal with Iran that is hugely unpopular in Israel, and blasts his ally with increasingly harsh criticism.
The US President branded Netanyahu a “very small partner” this week, after previously calling him “f**king crazy” and suggesting that Israel was committing war crimes in Lebanon by destroying whole apartment buildings with civilians inside.
His Deputy President, JD Vance, went further on Thursday with a sharp warning that Trump is “the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time.”
Tensions are likely to rise further after fighting intensified overnight between Israel and Iran-allied Lebanese militia Hezbollah – despite Trump’s deal with Iran stating that the ceasefire must cover Lebanon. Israeli bombardment killed at least 18 and wounded dozens, while a Hezbollah rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers.
The schism leaves the Israeli leader in a vulnerable position ahead of an election that must be held by 27 October.
Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst and specialist on Israeli politics at Chatham House, said that Netanyahu – now in his sixth term as prime minister over 19 years – is known for his survival skills. But the septuagenarian Israeli leader is “weaker than ever” after his “damaging” fallout with Trump.
A European diplomatic source suggested that Netanyahu could be “running out of road” after his “demonstrable failure to achieve war aims, and a serious rift with the US President”.
Netanyahu has yet to deliver the “total victory” he promised in wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. He faces enduring public anger over security failures around the Hamas attacks of 7 October, 2023. Opinion polls consistently show a lead for a coalition of opposition parties.
The domestic backlash in Israel to leaked details of Trump’s deal with Iran has increased the pressure.
US officials say the agreement includes provisions for sanctions relief and reconstruction funds that could net the Islamic Republic more than $300bn (£224bn), as well as an end to Israel’s campaign against Iranian ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. From Iran, there are few notable commitments to curbing its nuclear or ballistic missile programmes in the long term, or its support for allied militias across the region – all central demands for Israel.
Netanyahu’s coalition partners and even cabinet members have denounced the “bad deal”, and have called for the government not to abide by its terms. Israeli military officials have briefed that the deal squanders battlefield gains and could force the army to retreat in Lebanon.
Opposition leaders, meanwhile, have condemned Netanyahu’s failure to prevent a “disaster” deal or exert any influence on negotiations, amid reports that the White House has refused to share details with Israel.
Haaretz’s military correspondent, Amos Harel, wrote that the “Iran affair is emerging as the second worst fiasco in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long history”, after only the 7 October attacks.
Israel’s destructive campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has resulted in scores of civilian casualties, earning the ire of the US President (Photo: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters)Nimrod Novik, an Israeli former senior diplomat now at the the Israel Policy Forum think-tank, said Netanyahu’s government was facing public anger over appearing to squander peoples’ sacrifices during the war with Iran.
“Israelis were willing to run to the shelters two or three times a night with babies in their hands, and during the day, no school and no work, and missiles were falling and casualties were taken… but only for results,” he told The i Paper.
In the face of this growing frustration, Netanyahu has sought to put a more positive spin on the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. “We caused enormous damage… some estimate it at even close to $1trn,” he said in a speech this week.
But privately, the Prime Minister’s team are reckoning with the failure to achieve the ambitious goal that the war was sold on – to bring down the Iranian regime.
Netanyahu believed that such a historic accomplishment would mollify public anger over the 7 October attacks, which prompted the resignations of most of his top military and intelligence officials, sources close to the him told the The Times of Israel. He continues to resist calls for a public enquiry into the failures that led to the massacre.
Netanyahu is still facing public anger over security failures around the Hamas attacks of 7 October, 2023 (Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty)Mekelberg likened Netanyahu’s pattern of escalation in Israel’s conflicts since 7 October to a gambler chasing losses, ending in his long-shot bet on bringing down the Iranian regime.
“It’s Las Vegas politics,” he said. “You know you lost money, but instead of cutting your losses, you keep throwing money at it until you lose everything.”
Analysts are not yet writing off another revival, noting Netanyahu’s past comebacks, such as reclaiming Israel’s top office after losing an election in 2021. Some believe he could revive his fortunes by pivoting from Trump loyalist to the man protecting Israeli interests against the US President, campaigning against the latest Iran deal as he did with Barack Obama’s in 2015.
But this would be a difficult switch, said Novik, noting Netanyahu’s repeated statement that Trump was “the greatest friend Israel ever had in the White House”. The Prime Minister has previously pointed to Trump moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognising Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in occupied Syria and bombing Iran’s nuclear sites.
And he may fear a further deterioration of relations, Novik added. “I think one of his nightmares is to wake up one day before the election with a Trump Truth Social post indicating ‘I like this opposition guy. I look forward to working with him.’”
Israelis sheltering in an underground car park in Tel Aviv during an Iranian strike in April. Netanyahu’s government is facing public anger over appearing to squander peoples’ sacrifices during the war with Iran (Photo: Mostafa Alkharouf/Getty)Netanyahu could still be saved by the caution of Israel’s opposition parties. The coalition led by centrist Yair Lapid and right-wing Naftali Bennett has yet to articulate a compelling alternative vision for the country, and has broadly supported Netanyahu’s foreign policies – while claiming they would have achieved better results.
But with time running out, Netanyahu is hoping for “rabbits from hats” that could alter his fortunes, Mekelberg said. One hope is that the Iran deal could fall apart.
But if there is no saving grace, an election defeat at the age of 76 could be final for Netanyahu, leaving him vulnerable to an ongoing corruption case that he’s been able to delay while in office.
“I think a combination of his age and legal predicament would make a comeback even more astonishing than the last one,” said Novik.
The enduring survivor of Israeli politics could finally be undone by his “great friend” Trump.
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