Speaking at the G7 meeting on Tuesday in France, Donald Trump claimed that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon” under the agreement to end the conflict announced at the weekend.
But working out the technicalities will take some time and require trust on both sides.
The deal – which US officials said had been signed electronically by both sides – will be the start of complex discussions around Iran’s nuclear materials and how to verify that they are being used for peaceful purposes.
A formal signing ceremony is due to take place in Geneva later this week, with the details of the deal to be hammered out over the next 60 days.
What will happen to Iran’s nuclear programme?
Trump has made it the central part of his proposed deal that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, telling reporters at the summit: “The only thing that really matters to me is Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and it says it loud and clear.”
He added that, “all hell will rain down” on Iran if the Islamic Republic tried to build a nuclear bomb, saying the ceasefire deal would ensure the country “can’t have a nuclear weapon” or “they get blown up”.
Iranian officials have repeatedly claimed that Iran has no plans to develop nuclear weapons and its nuclear activities remain focused on peaceful civilian energy supplies.
The US-Iran peace deal forbids Tehran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, something it says it has never been engaged in (Photo: AFP)What does the deal mean for Israel and Lebanon?
The US President called the Israeli operation in southern Lebanon “a minor war” and “a little pinprick that raises its head”, saying the country’s actions were not an important issue for the deal.
But Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who has been one of the key mediators between the US and Iran, said on Sunday that “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” would be part of a deal, leading to strong criticism in Israeli media.
Iranian foreign affairs spokesperson Esmail Baghaei on Monday insisted that “Lebanon and the end of the war in Lebanon are an inseparable part of the agreement to end the war”.
The Iranians are likely to try to pressurise Trump into restraining Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Dr Neil Quilliam, associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
“What will really test the durability of the truce are Israeli strikes against targets beyond southern Lebanon and into Beirut,” Quilliam told The i Paper. “Iran will likely push US negotiators hard on this point and threaten to walk away in the hope that Trump reins in Netanyahu.”
Is Trump prepared to sideline Netanyahu to get what he desperately needs?
Omar Rahman, an expert at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, believes the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu will be critical in deciding if the deal will lead to lasting peace.
“Netanyahu and Israel see this agreement as being struck over their heads and against their interests,” said Rahman. “It’s all hinging on US pressure on Netanyahu to comply with the deal, but I think Trump for the first time is serious about forcing Israel to comply.”
Quilliam agreed that the importance of the deal to Trump personally has changed the dynamic of the relationship.
“Trump can hold Netanyahu accountable if he chooses to do so. It is never entirely clear how much latitude the US president affords the Israeli prime minister, but with so much now at stake, he is likely to keep Netanyahu on a tighter leash,” he argued.
The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu will be critical to the agreement, experts say (Photo: Firdous Nazir/Getty)What questions about the deal remain?
In short – many. The devil will be in the detail and some of the key issues will be the reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, the unfreezing of Iranian assets held by other nations and Iranian support for groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Sir Keir Starmer on Tuesday emphasised that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was “very, very important” as it affected “every house across the country”.
Middle East and defence expert Christian Le Miere told The i Paper that reopening the strait is dependent on two factors – Iranian policy and commercial shipping’s confidence about their security. “It may take some time for commercial shippers and insurers to trust that there will not be further disruption in the strait,” he said.
Mine clearing could start relatively quickly, according to Le Miere, but there would still be major risks for commercial vessels. “To effectively clear the strait with confidence would likely take weeks but smaller corridors could be cleared and patrolled within one week, depending on the assets deployed,” he said.
“Mine clearance is often not foolproof, though. During the Gulf War two American vessels were struck by naval mines despite clearance operations.”
Is this a deal Trump can sell to America?
Trump has made much of comparing this deal to the one struck under the Obama administration in 2015 known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
At the G7, Trump compared his deal to Barack Obama’s, saying: “This deal is a wall to a nuclear weapon. His deal was a road to a nuclear weapon.”
But US media have been reporting growing concerns within the US administration over the last 24 hours with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth raising concerns about Iran’s willingness to abide by a deal.
Quilliam says Trump will struggle to convince people his deal was better than Obama’s. “This looks like the JCPOA all over again – only subpar,” he said.
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