We look ahead to Thursday’s Group K clash in Mexico City with our Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction and preview. Can the debutants make a winning start?
Uzbekistan vs Colombia: The Key Insights
Colombia have won five of their last six World Cup group matches (L1), and are Opta’s favourites for victory here at 62.4% Uzbekistan are aiming to become the first World Cup debutants since Slovakia in 2010 to reach the knockout stages Fabio Cannavaro (2006) and Néstor Lorenzo (1990) are two of the three head coaches at the 2026 tournament to have played in a World Cup final, along with France boss Didier Deschamps (1998)World Cup newcomers Uzbekistan look to mark their long-awaited tournament debut with victory over the returning Colombia in Mexico City.
After several near misses, the White Wolves will finally make their bow at the finals, having lost just one of 16 matches as they successfully navigated the AFC qualifying section.
Eldor Shomurodov played a starring role, with the former Roma striker – now plying his trade with Süper Lig side İstanbul Başakşehir – directly involved in a team-high nine goals (five goals, four assists).
Both Srečko Katanec and Timur Kapadze led Uzbekistan to second-place finishes behind Iran in their second and third-round groups, before World Cup experience was sought in former Italy captain Fabio Cannavaro, who skippered the Azzurri to glory in 2006.
Cannavaro was an ever-present in Germany in what was one of four World Cups he appeared in as a player, the joint-most by an Italian.
Although, his World Cup playing career ended on a disappointing note, as defending champions Italy crashed out in the group stage of the 2010 finals, following a 3-2 defeat by Slovakia.
Coincidentally, Slovakia’s subsequent progression to the knockout rounds represents the last time a tournament debutant achieved the feat, something Cannavaro is now aiming to emulate with Uzbekistan, while the last team from the AFC confederation to do so were Saudi Arabia in 1994.
Another coincidence is the fact Cannavaro’s counterpart also boasts World Cup final experience, with Colombia boss Néstor Lorenzo having been part of the Argentina side that were beaten by West Germany in the 1990 showpiece. Didier Deschamps is the only other head coach at the 2026 tournament to have played in a World Cup final; the outgoing France boss having captained Les Bleus to victory on home soil in 1998.
When Cannavaro lifted the World Cup trophy 20 years ago, Lorenzo was Argentina’s assistant coach under José Pékerman, who he then shadowed with Colombia as they reached the quarter-finals in 2014, before losing to England on penalties in the round of 16 four years later.
After Los Cafeteros were absent from Qatar in 2022, Lorenzo – now leading from the front – has steered them back to the finals following an impressive CONMBEOL qualifying campaign, in which they finished third behind reigning world champions Argentina and Ecuador.
Colombia’s attacking quality was highlighted by the fact they registered the most expected goals (28.8), shots on target (96) and headed goals (seven) in the section. Meanwhile, their tally of 28 goals was only bettered by Argentina (31) – the side who pipped them to the Copa América title two years ago, courtesy of Lautaro Martínez’s extra-time winner.
Lorenzo’s qualifying charge was led by top scorer Luis Díaz, whose seven goals were only bettered by a certain Lionel Messi (eight). Meanwhile, James Rodríguez – their star of the 2014 World Cup, at which his six goals earned the Golden Boot award – provided seven assists, three more than any other player.
Both men will likely be crucial to Colombia’s hopes of emulating their run to the last eight in Brazil. Los Cafeteros have hit their stride fairly quickly in their two most recent appearances at the finals, winning five of their six group matches in that span (L1), and they will target a similarly fast start in North America.
Uzbekistan vs Colombia Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever meeting between the two nations.
Uzbekistan’s only previous victory over a side from the CONEMBOL confederation came in March 2023.
The White Wolves defeated Bolivia 1-0 in a friendly in Saudi Arabia, with Eldor Shomurodov scoring the winner in the 36th minute.
Colombia, meanwhile, were beaten in their most recent World Cup match against an AFC opponent, losing 2-1 to Japan in their 2018 opener in Russia.
Nevertheless, Los Cafeteros recovered from that early setback to finish top of Group H, following victories over Poland and Senegal.
Uzbekistan vs Colombia Prediction
The Opta supercomputer favours a Colombia victory, with Los Cafeteros having won 62.4% of the 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Uzbekistan’s chances of marking their World Cup bow with a win are rated at 17.5%, with a draw at 20.1%.
History suggests we are unlikely to witness a stalemate at Mexico City Stadium.
None of Colombia’s 22 World Cup matches have ended in a goalless draw, with only Austria (29) playing more games at the tournament without ever recording a 0-0 result.
Uzbekistan vs Colombia Squads
Uzbekistan: Utkir Yusupov, Abduvokhid Nematov, Botirali Ergashev, Abdukodir Khusanov, Khojiakbar Alijonov, Farrukh Sayfiev, Rustam Ashurmatov, Sherzod Nasrullaev, Umar Eshmurodov, Bekhruz Karimov, Avazbek O’lmasaliev, Jakhongir Urozov, Akmal Mozgovoy, Otabek Shukurov, Jamshid Iskanderov, Odiljon Khamrobekov, Jaloliddin Masharipov, Oston Urunov, Dostonbek Khamdamov, Abdulla Abdullaev, Aziz G’aniev, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Sherzod Esanov, Eldor Shomurodov, Azizbek Amonov, Igor Sergeev.
Colombia: David Ospina, Camilo Vargas, Álvaro Montero, Daniel Muñoz, Jhon Lucumí, Santiago Arias, Yerry Mina, Johan Mojica, Willer Ditta, Deiver Machado, Davinson Sánchez, Kevin Castaño, Richard Ríos, Jorge Carrascal, James Rodríguez, Jhon Arias, Gustavo Puerta, Juan Portilla, Jefferson Lerma, Juan Fernando Quintero, Jaminton Campaz, Luis Díaz, Jhon Córdoba, Cucho Hernández, Luis Suárez, Andrés Gómez.
Uzbekistan vs Colombia Predicted Lineups
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Uzbekistan vs Colombia Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview Opta Analyst.
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