US President Donald Trump has renewed strikes on Iran, hoping to pressure the Islamic Republic into accepting a deal suitable for Washington. But experts warn this will have the opposite effect.
Trump said on Wednesday the US will resume attacks on Iran “very hard” after insufficient progress in negotiations to end the war. Fresh US attacks – and retaliatory strikes from Tehran – then followed.
“The reality is that more pressure can lead to even less – not more – flexibility on the Iranian side,” Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN.
Iran’s current leadership believes that “surviving” the US’ most intense attacks allows them to maintain some form of diplomatic leverage, he said, adding that the Islamic Republic leadership relies heavily on “a hardline, ideologically oriented constituency that views any sign of softness as capitulation.”
Ali Ahmadi, a fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy and Middle East Institute Switzerland, said that having survived 39 days of war, the Iranian leadership now has more confidence in the country’s resilience.
They are convinced that “only hardline resistance and aggressive retaliation can even conceivably create deterrence,” Ahmadi told CNN.
The Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they carried out retaliatory strikes targeting US bases in the region after the US military struck Iran overnight. A senior Iranian military official later warned that Iran could turn the Middle East region “into hell” if the Strait of Hormuz is made insecure – which it proceeded to say was now closed.
“Under these circumstances, US military moves only complicate any potential concessions that the Iranian leadership may already have been prepared to make,” Azizi said.
Can Iran be bombed into submission? Experts say it can’t Egypt Independent.
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