We look ahead to Thursday’s 2026 FIFA World Cup opening match with our Mexico vs South Africa prediction and preview. Can Javier Aguirre’s co-hosts start with victory at Estadio Azteca?
Mexico vs South Africa: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations saw co-hosts Mexico secure victory over South Africa in a massive 66.3% of pre-match simulations. Mexico are unbeaten in their last seven opening matches at a men’s World Cup. None of South Africa’s nine games in the men’s FIFA World Cup have ended goalless.The 2026 World Cup is finally here. Co-hosts Mexico welcome South Africa for the first game of FIFA’s global tournament on Thursday.
Mexico, along with the United States and Canada, bypassed a long qualification campaign for this expanded 48-team tournament, which will be the first World Cup hosted by three countries.
The world-renowned Estadio Azteca will stage the first of 104 matches, with the stadium hosting its 20th match in the competition – more than any other venue in history.
Javier Aguirre may fancy a strong start in Mexico City. His side are unbeaten in their seven matches in the World Cup at this ground (W5 D2), and an opening win could quickly put them in the driving seat of Group A.
Aguirre’s men will also face South Korea and Czechia in their pool, with Mexico ranked as favourites to top their group across the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament predictions.
A positive opening may be key to settling home nerves. El Tri have not lost an opening game at the men’s World Cup since defeat against Norway in 1994, going unbeaten in seven such games since (W5 D2).
This edition will be Mexico’s 18th appearance at the men’s World Cup, a record for any CONCACAF nation, but they have also played the most matches without ever lifting the trophy (60). In a positive omen, Mexico’s best finishes have come both times as hosts, reaching the quarter-finals in 1970 and 1986.
Aguirre – who returned for a third spell as Mexico boss in 2024 – will lead his country in the competition for a third time, after 2002 and 2010. Only France’s Didier Deschamps has managed at more World Cups with the same nation among this year’s head coaches.
The 67-year-old has playing experience on this stage as well. Aguirre started all five matches in 1986 and assisted Manuel Negrete’s volley against Bulgaria, before being sent off in the quarter-final loss to West Germany.
Much of the pre-tournament focus has been on how Oswin Appollis was directly involved in twice as many goals as any other South African player during the qualifiers for this tournament (6), scoring twice and providing four assists.
Appollis’ handy returns helped South Africa finish top of their group in CAF qualifying. Bafana Bafana trailed in only one qualifier, a 2-0 away defeat to Rwanda in November 2023, excluding their 3-0 awarded loss against Lesotho for fielding an ineligible player.
An impressive qualification campaign propelled Broos’ men to a fourth World Cup, and their first away from home since 2002. However, they have never progressed into the knockout stage before.
This will also be South Africa’s second World Cup match against a host nation, after their 3-0 defeat to France in 1998, and you’d expect chances to flow at both ends given their record at this tournament.
South Africa have played nine matches at the World Cup, but none have ended goalless. Their two wins in the competition came against France in 2010 and Slovenia in 2002, with the latter their only clean sheet (a 1-0 win).
Mexico vs South Africa Head-to-Head
Exactly 16 years ago to the date of this fixture on Thursday, South Africa hosted Mexico in the 2010 World Cup opener. Siphiwe Tshabalala opened the scoring before Rafael Marquez – now El Tri’s assistant coach – equalised in a 1-1 draw.
In fact, this will be the first time an opening fixture has ever been repeated from the 19 previous single-match World Cup openers.
That clash in 2010 was also the last time an opening match in this tournament ended in a draw.
However, the last two openers at the Azteca both ended level – Mexico and the Soviet Union shared a goalless draw in 1970 before Bulgaria and Italy drew 1-1 in 1986.
Mexico vs South Africa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer could not look past a victory for Mexico, who came out on top in a convincing 66.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
South Africa finished as winners across 14.3% of supercomputer simulations, with the draw rated as more likely in 19.4% of the same data-led sims.
Mexico vs South Africa Predicted Lineups
Mexico vs South Africa Squads
Mexico: Raúl Rangel, Carlos Acevedo, Guillermo Ochoa, Jorge Sánchez, César Montes, Johan Vásquez, Israel Reyes, Mateo Chávez, Jesús Gallardo, Edson Álvarez, Érik Lira, Luis Romo, Álvaro Fidalgo, Orbelín Pineda, Obed Vargas, Gilberto Mora, César Huerta, Luis Chávez, Brian Gutiérrez, Raúl Jiménez, Alexis Vega, Santiago Giménez, Armando González, Julián Quiñones, Guillermo Martínez, Roberto Alvarado.
South Africa: Ronwen Williams, Sipho Chaine, Ricardo Goss, Thabang Matuludi, Khulumani Ndamane, Aubrey Modiba, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Samukele Kabini, Nkosinathi Sibisi, Khuliso Mudau, Ime Okon, Olwethu Makhanya, Bradley Cross, Teboho Mokoena, Thalente Mbatha, Themba Zwane, Yaya Sithole, Jayden Adams, Kamogelo Sebelebele, Oswin Appollis, Tshepang Moremi, Lyle Foster, Relebohile Mofokeng, Thapelo Maseko, Iqraam Rayners, Evidence Makgopa.
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Mexico vs South Africa Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview Opta Analyst.
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