If I’d told you a few months ago that the Chicago Cubs would have two 2025 drafted outfielders reach top-100 prospect lists by June, I have to assume you would’ve guessed first rounder Ethan Conrad was one of them. Unfortunately, he still has yet to make his pro debut (back issues, about which we’ve heard very little after the initial estimate of a month-ish absence – obviously it’s been much more than that).
Instead, sixth rounder Josiah Hartshorn has been on a rocket ship ascent, and now second rounder Kane Kepley joins him in the top-100 at Baseball America at number 98.
(Note: Baseball America’s most recent update to its Top 100 prospect list is more of a mini-update than a re-ranking – they did the full thing last week – but as graduations clear out the bottom of the list, new guys slide on. So, for now, it’s more like “Kane Kepley is a top-100 prospect,” rather than “Kane Kepley is PRECISELY the number 98 prospect.”)
The BA writeup is essentially the scouting consensus you’d expect, and it’s something we’ve heard before. Kepley is “one of the most advanced hitters in the Cubs system” on the strength of his swing decisions and contact, but the upside is capped by his size and a lack of power. The scouting grades reflect that – a 60-grade hit tool, 60-grade speed, 70-grade defense in center, but a 40 on the power. The Cubs knew this was his profile when they drafted him, but have made the bet that Kepley will add just enough power, and the rest of the profile will play. So far, so good.
That is to say, the season-to-date numbers at High-A South Bend mostly back up the expected profile and the hopes he’ll hit for just enough power. Kepley is hitting .261/.440/.383/128 wRC+. The OBP is obviously ridiculous, and the walk rate has actually ticked UP from his Low-A debut (21.7% versus 19.1%). The strikeout rate is up just slightly (13.5% from 11.5%), but he’s still putting the ball in play at the same elite clip – his contact rate is essentially unchanged at around 86%.
1 2 3 × Top 100 (Finally) Baseball America slotted Kepley at #98 in its latest mini-update. With graduations clearing the bottom of the list, the more accurate read is “Kepley is a top-100 prospect” rather than precisely the 98th. He joins Josiah Hartshorn (64), Pedro Ramirez (73), and Jefferson Rojas (94) on BA’s Cubs contingent. × 60 / 60 / 70 — and a 40 BA calls Kepley “one of the most advanced hitters in the Cubs system” on the strength of his swing decisions and contact. The grades reflect both the upside and the ceiling: 60 hit, 60 speed, 70 defense in center — and a 40 on power. The Cubs drafted him knowing that profile and are betting he adds just enough pop for the rest of the game to play. × The Line, and the Wrinkle At High-A South Bend: .261/.440/.383, 128 wRC+. The walk rate has actually climbed to 21.7% (from 19.1% at Low-A), the K rate is still elite at 13.5%, and contact sits near 86%. The wrinkle: groundball rate has jumped from 34.6% to 46.3%, fly balls down to 29.9% — something to watch for a hitter whose ceiling is gated by power. Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn ImagesWhat I keep eyeing, as I've said before, is the batted ball profile, because, for a guy whose ceiling is gated by power, there are still some things you'd like to see improve. Kepley's groundball rate has jumped from 34.6% at Low-A to 46.3% at High-A, while his fly ball rate has dropped from 38.3% to 29.9%. His HR/FB ratio is down from 6.5% to 4.5%, and the ISO is down a tick, too. He is pulling the ball more often (44.7% from 36.6%), which is at least the kind of intent shift that could eventually translate to more lift in games (he'll probably have to be opportunistic like that to pull side if he's going to have a good bit more in-game power).
At 22 and in his first full pro season, I think there's still plenty reason to be patient on the power development with Kane Kepley. And, again, he doesn't need to be a "power hitter" to be a valuable player - he just needs enough power to let the rest of his offensive ability play against better pitching and better defenses down the line. Clearly, Baseball America can see at least some of that coming, otherwise he probably wouldn't be a top-100 prospect.
Kepley joins Hartshorn (64), Pedro Ramirez (73), and Jefferson Rojas (94) on the top-100 at BA.
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