Ecuador conceded only five times during qualification and spent fewer than 100 minutes trailing across 18 matches. Their defensive discipline and ability to threaten on the break could make them one of the World Cup‘s surprise packages.
Having progressed beyond the group stage just once in their World Cup history – a run to the Round of 16 in 2006 – Ecuador arrive in North America on the back of arguably the finest qualification campaign they have ever produced.
La Tri conceded just five goals across 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers and kept 13 clean sheets, with no South American nation boasting a stronger defensive record.
Those foundations have transformed Sebastián Beccacece’s side into one of the continent’s toughest opponents and could prove crucial in a fascinating Group E featuring Germany, Ivory Coast and Curaçao.
They’re also undefeated in four friendlies after their World Cup qualification campaign, including getting a draw away at the Netherlands in March, and come into this tournament on the back of a 15-game unbeaten run.
Group E Predictions:
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5 days ago Andrew BeasleyDefensive Stability
Let’s reiterate those numbers again. No South American side conceded fewer goals or kept more clean sheets during CONMEBOL qualification than Ecuador. They conceded just five goals, half the tally of the next-best team, reigning World Cup champions Argentina.
Under Beccacece, they have developed into a disciplined defensive unit built to utilise their speed and attacking efficiency on the break.
But while those ideals remain consistent, Beccacece has shown he’s very willing to be flexible with the way his team sets up. The Argentine head coach used seven different formations across Ecuador’s qualifying campaign; variations of a back four were deployed in 10 matches, while a back three featured in the remaining eight.
That tactical adaptability could become a major asset during tournament football, where different opponents and different game states can require constant tactical tweaks.
Regardless of their shape, Ecuador consistently deny their opponents space in dangerous areas.
Only Argentina and Brazil conceded chances worth a lower expected goals (xG) total than Ecuador’s 13.3 xG against during qualification.
A look at their opponents’ combined shot map below shows how well they protected central spaces close to their own goal, limiting chances to wide areas in the box or from long rage.
It stands to reason that when you concede just five goals across 18 matches, you don’t find yourself behind on the scoresheet very often.
Ecuador spent only 97 minutes behind across all 18 qualifying matches for these finals, accounting for just 5.5% of their total match time.
No other South American nation came close. Uruguay ranked second, but still spent significantly more time behind (243 minutes).
Given Ecuador rarely had to chase games, they could instead lean heavily on their counter-attacking threat. Beccacece’s side scored three goals directly from counters during qualification, second only to Colombia’s six.
They also managed 23 direct attacks in total – defined as when a team wins the ball in their own half, has at least 50% of its possession move directly towards the opposition’s goal and their move ends in a shot or a touch in the opposition box. That was just one fewer than three teams (Venezuela, Uruguay, Brazil all 24). Colombia were way out in front on 38.
The trade-off, however, has been attacking fluency. Among the CONMEBOL nations that qualified for this World Cup, no side scored fewer than Ecuador’s 14 goals. They drew four consecutive games 0-0 during qualification. That lack of cutting edge has drawn criticism from sections of the national media and fanbase.
That will soon be forgotten, though, if Ecuador can escape from Group E. Their pragmatic approach should be very well suited to tournament football at the highest level, especially if they can reach the knockout rounds where they can frustrate their opponents.
A Spine of Genuine Quality
With high-level talent running through the centre of the team, Ecuador’s rise to 24th in the latest FIFA World Rankings is no surprise.
Their spine starts with Enner Valencia, Ecuador’s record scorer and one of their greatest ever players at the international level. He will lead the line for the third time at the World Cup.
Only three players scored more than Valencia’s six strikes across CONMEBOL qualifying. He also ranked joint-first for shots on target (21), second for expected goals (7.1 xG) and third for total shots (42), underlining how heavily Ecuador’s attack still depends on their veteran forward.
Realistically, Ecuador are unlikely to be lifting the trophy on 19 July. But with one of the strongest defensive setups in the tournament and a talented spine running through the team, they are more than capable of troubling higher-profile opponents.
If Beccacece’s side can combine their defensive strength with just enough attacking output going the other way, a deep run may not be beyond them. They could yet achieve the best World Cup finish in the nation’s history.
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The Perfect Tournament Team? Ecuador’s Defensive Steel Could Make Them the World Cup’s Surprise Package Opta Analyst.
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