Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership within a fortnight of the Makerfield by-election if he succeeds in his bid to return as an MP, The i Paper can reveal.
Cabinet ministers are braced for Burnham to launch a contest to try to succeed the Prime Minister by the end of June or early July.
Senior ministers are war-gaming how quickly Burnham will declare his candidacy for Labour leader. They are weighing up whether he needs a period to get to know colleagues in Parliament and establish a clear programme for government, while simultaneously convincing Starmer to retire quietly.
“I think there’s an expectation that if he wins, then things will move,” a Cabinet source said. “There’ll be some discussion about what the timescale is. Then, in exchange for a timescale, it’ll be: will Keir go graciously or not?”
“Andy hasn’t given up on the mayoralty in Manchester – where he can do things – to sit in the background. He also hasn’t stood there to be brought into the collective responsibility of the Cabinet, certainly not under its current stewardship. And he certainly isn’t going to let someone beat him to the job,” they added.
On Thursday, Burnham used a special BBC Question Time episode to go public with politics’ worst-kept secret: his plan to use the unsolicited by-election for a parliamentary comeback and challenge Starmer.
Voters in Makerfield go to the polls on June 18, meaning if the Cabinet predictions are correct, a formal challenge could even come before the end of the month. A snap Survation poll after the BBC debate put his support at 49 per cent, a clear ten-point lead ahead of the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon.
“I think [former health secretary] Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running, I would seek to join it. But I’d have to persuade members of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) to do the same,” Burnham said.
Starmer has been on the phone to allies this weekend telling them he will fight in any leadership election.
Under Labour rules, Burnham would need the support of 81 MPs to mount a challenge, but the Prime Minister automatically enters the ballot unless he withdraws.
However, Starmer would need the support of Labour MPs to continue through the initial rounds of the contest.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, who organised Starmer’s 2020 leadership campaign, told Sky News on Sunday that he would throw his support behind the PM in a leadership challenge. “He is the most resilient person I have ever met in my life,” Lammy said.
‘Writing is on the wall’ for Starmer
Supporters of Burnham hope the impetus of his win in Makerfield will bounce Starmer into seeing that “the writing is on the wall,” as one Labour MP put it. They also hope to convince would-be challengers, including Streeting, that there is no point in contesting Burnham.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if he [Burnham] moved extremely quickly, perhaps as soon as a fortnight,” a second Cabinet minister said. “Provided he wins the by-election, of course.”
A third member of the Cabinet and an ally of Starmer agreed events could move quickly, but disputed the idea of the Prime Minister going without a fight.
“If Andy wins the by-election, which I think he will, something will probably happen,” they said, but Starmer feels his achievement in winning the 2024 general election “is constantly underpriced.”
“There’s a view around that anybody could have done that. Anybody in a red sticker could have won. I’ve been around enough and been involved in enough election campaigns to believe that not to be true,” the Cabinet minister said.
“So, what that makes him feel now, when everybody says, ‘Well, you’re not doing very well, get out of the way,’ is ‘Hang on a minute. I take this mandate from winning a general election really seriously’.”
PM ‘won’t go without a fight’
A Labour source put it more succinctly. “What’s underestimated is how much Keir dislikes Andy. Why would he stand aside for him?”
A No 10 spokesperson said: “The Prime Minister will not walk away from the mandate he was given just two years ago to build a stronger, fairer Britain.”
In Makerfield, Labour strategists are taking nothing for granted, warning of a two-horse race between Burnham and Kenyon.
Even though Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain has made some inroads into the right-wing vote in the constituency near Wigan, they warned voters had made up their minds as the race kicked off three weeks ago. Unearthed social media posts from Kenyon have also dominated the campaign.
“I don’t know that it matters that much to the people voting Reform,” a Labour strategist said, of Kenyon’s historic remarks about Brexit, abortion and the broadcaster Carol Vorderman. “The movements all happened early on: Andy being the candidate, and everyone knowing Andy… it really is a two-horse race.”
But Burnham is likely to benefit from tactical anti-Reform voting. “You meet Tories who are voting for Andy to stop Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems – who are all on low figures anyway – but they’re all disappearing into the two columns, either Reform or Labour,” the Labour source said.
A Labour campaigner who has been out knocking doors with Burnham said: “He’s very good at absorbing the bile and listening to people who are sick of politics without forcing home the point. He tells them: ‘I understand politics isn’t working for you, that’s why I want to change Westminster’.”
Burnham ‘has got the numbers’
Back in Parliament, preparations are underway to challenge Starmer when Burnham is ready. “His supporters have already run the numbers, and he has 81 ready to go,” one Labour MP with knowledge of the discussions said, pointing to former Cabinet minister Louise Haigh as a key co-ordinator. Haigh denied she is organising any challenge to Starmer.
Meanwhile, MPs and senior Labour figures disagree on how quickly Burnham should move against the Prime Minister, with some arguing his fledgling team needs time to build up a nationwide policy platform.
“People need to look at the long term… look at how we manage that carefully over the next few months, particularly because Andy does need to think about more than liking football and getting to know people. It can’t just be a personality thing, it has to be a substance thing,” one of Labour’s regional mayors said.
A Labour MP elected in 2024 told Burnham to get to know the MPs elected after his 2017 parliamentary departure.
“There needs to be a groundswell for Andy, and he doesn’t know any of the ‘24 lot, not many of the ‘19 lot and the older crew have mixed feelings. He needs to spend the summer getting to know people,” the MP said.
Another Labour MP dismissed the idea that Burnham would waste time getting to know his colleagues. “He doesn’t need to do outreach, even though he doesn’t know that many people in the PLP. He has got the numbers. And the interesting question is whether we actually have a debate or whether Wes falls in behind.”
Streeting ‘won’t allow a Burnham coronation’
Streeting, meanwhile, has made it clear on multiple occasions he won’t allow a coronation of Burnham, although The i Paper understands the two men have not discussed the timing of a formal contest.
Freed from the restraints of collective responsibility, Streeting has spent time on a countrywide road trip listening to voters’ concerns and making policy suggestions. Newly released message exchanges with Peter Mandelson in which Streeting said raising concerns over Gaza in Government was like “hitting up against a brick wall” boosted his standing with the Labour membership.
When Streeting resigned his Cabinet position, he lost his ministerial office in the House of Commons. MPs are amused that his new room is next door to Haigh and down the corridor from left-wingers Bell Rebeiro-Addy and Diane Abbott. Streeting has taken to joking that he asked if he could join the Socialist Campaign Group, but Rebeiro-Addy rejected him on the grounds that he’s now too left-wing.
And while Streeting may be eager to move on from the phoney war to a real contest, some close to Burnham want to buy a little more time.
An ally of Burnham said: “He doesn’t need to move really quickly,” adding Labour MPs would like any transition to a new leader to be “orderly and planned” and for Burnham’s team to have “a clearer sense of what they’re doing.”
But MPs are an excitable bunch, and some would like a quick contest. “I don’t think he needs to rely on the relationships [with MPs]. I would ordinarily say that you have to, but ultimately, certain facts will just be compelling. It may be a Labour seat on paper, but we see it as him winning against the odds. Don’t discount the emotional feel-good bounce that comes from winning. MPs who consoled their local councillors who lost their seats in May will want to feel that winning feeling again. Andy would be wise to capitalise on that.”
Another Labour MP was more laconic. “I’d vote for Larry [the Downing Street cat] just to get this bloody contest over with,” they said.
Burnham’s spokesperson declined to comment.
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