A new report warns that Social Security recipients could see benefits cut by roughly $500 a month if the program's trust fund runs dry in 2032. Social Security insolvency would affect roughly 70 million Americans. What are the experts saying about how likely it is, and what would happen if it ran dry?
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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has warned in a new report that Social Security insolvency is likely in the next 7 years unless measures are taken to preserve it. USA Today Newsreports that, since 2010, Social Security has paid out more in benefits than it collects in payroll taxes, drawing down its reserve trust funds. The sheer size of the Baby Boomer population has put a significant strain on SS, leading to the insolvency crisis.
According to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the program’s finances haven’t been addressed since 1983, more than 40 years ago. The 1983 reforms were projected at the time to keep the program solvent through the mid-21st century, but demographic shifts have accelerated the timeline.
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Expert Opinions
Anil Suri, managing director, head of Asset Allocation & Portfolio Construction Analytics, Chief Investment Office, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank says in a post on the company’s website, “While a funding solution is likely to be found for this critical retirement program that’s supported millions of Americans since the 1930s, it’s not a bad idea for retirement savers to review their own retirement funding plans and stay aware of developments in Congress.”
The Brookings Institution, a public policy organization located in Washington, D.C., laid out a blueprint to keep the fund solvent and protect the Americans it serves. The plan’s main solutions are to increase taxes on the highest-earning Americans and corporations, raise the retirement age, reduce some benefits, and increase legal immigration (immigrants pay taxes but face stricter rules for collecting SSI).
Nuveen, a global investment management firm, writes that changes will have to happen to keep the fund from going broke, but that there are ways to save it, including:
Raising the payroll tax from 12.4% to 16.4%Remove payroll tax capsPhase out payroll tax exclusion of employer-sponsored group health insurance premiumsThis isn’t the extent of Nuveen’s proposal, but increasing revenue seems to be something that everyone working on the problem agrees will save Social Security.
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If the trust fund is depleted by 2032 and no action is taken, Social Security could only pay about 83% of scheduled benefits — a cut of roughly $500 a month for the average recipient. Fortunately for the millions of Americans who rely on the program and the millions more who have paid into it but haven’t accessed it, there are real solutions to ensure Social Security lasts far into the future.
What Congress Actually Needs to Do (With Sources)
There are currently several active legislative proposals. Here's what's on the table:
1. Raise or eliminate the payroll tax cap. The Social Security Expansion Act (S.770) would extend payroll taxes to income above $250,000 — compared to the current cap of $176,100.
2. A benefits cap on high earners. The CRFB proposed a "Six-Figure Limit" plan in March 2025 that would cap Social Security benefits at $100,000 per year for couples and $50,000 for individuals. This would affect less than 2% of recipients, but extend the program's solvency.
3. The math on what's required Restoring full solvency would require the equivalent of at least a 22% reduction in benefits for current and future beneficiaries, a 29% increase in payroll taxes, or some combination of the two.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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