Group J at the 2026 FIFA World Cup features reigning champions Argentina alongside Algeria, Austria and Jordan. Who will qualify for the knockout phase?
Reigning champions Argentina will have plenty of eyes on them as they defend their title in North America at the 2026 World Cup.
Pre-tournament indications are they shouldn’t have too many issues getting through a Group J that also includes Algeria, Austria and Jordan.
Having said that, defending champions have made a habit of making early exits at World Cups since the turn of the century. France (2002), Italy (2010), Spain (2014) and Germany (2018) all failed to get out of their groups during title defences, while we also shouldn’t forget that Argentina started off poorly en route to success in 2022, losing their opener to Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, Argentina are fourth favourites with the Opta supercomputer to win the tournament, going all the way in 10.3% of the 10,000 simulations. Unsurprisingly, then, they are deemed overwhelming favourites for Group J.
World Cup Group J Predictions
Argentina are one of the hottest group favourites in the tournament, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 72.0% chance of topping Group J before a ball is kicked. Only Spain (98.5%) and Brazil (96.9%) better Argentina’s 96.7% chance of qualifying from their group across the 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations. Austria are the second likeliest team to progress from Group J, with a 67.4% likelihood of making the knockout phase. Algeria (57.1%) and Jordan (40.9%) follow.Only twice before have the World Cup champions retained the title and not since Brazil did so in 1962. Argentina would love to join their fiercest rivals in this exclusive club by following their triumph four years ago with another tournament win this summer.
With a successful manager and the greatest player of all time, they obviously have a chance. Lionel Scaloni is the only Argentina head coach to win both the World Cup (2022) and the Copa América (2021 and 2024). If omens count for anything, he is also the first to lead Argentina at two consecutive World Cups since Carlos Bilardo, who won the tournament in 1986 and finished as runner-up in 1990. They should go far.
With the greatest of respect to Scaloni, he is not the Lionel people think of when they consider La Albiceleste. A certain Lionel Messi holds the record for most World Cup appearances, with 26 matches played (and 21 goal contributions), and during Argentina’s victorious campaign in 2022, he scored or assisted 10 of Argentina’s 15 goals.
Messi also top-scored for his nation in qualifying for this tournament with eight goals. He also provided three assists, as did Exequiel Palacios. As much as Messi is considered the G.O.A.T, the quality across the rest of the squad ensures Argentina will have no issues in this section.
Austria have appeared in seven previous World Cups, but this is their first since 1998.
They qualified relatively easily this time around, with six wins and a draw from their eight matches. A big part of their success was the intensity of their pressing, which unsettled opponents.
Austria recorded a PPDA (opposition passes per defensive action) value of 7.1 in the UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers, the lowest among all nations. It means they allowed their opponents fewer passes than any other side before a defensive action. Repeating this in the fierce heat of summer in North America will not be easy, though.
Will it also be too hot for 37-year-old forward Mohammed Amoura was the top scorer in the CAF qualifiers, netting 10 goals in 10 matches. Overall, he was involved in 58% of Algeria’s 24 goals, scoring 10 and assisting four.
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