Group E at the 2026 FIFA World Cup pits Ivory Coast, Curaçao, Ecuador and Germany together. Who will qualify for the next phase of the competition?
The 23rd edition of the FIFA World Cup takes place between 11 June and 19 July in Canada, Mexico and the United States of America.
Germany kick things off in Group E with a match against debutants Curaçao in Houston on 14 June. There’s then a game between Ivory Coast and Ecuador that evening in Philadelphia which is likely to be critical in determining who probably finishes second behind the Europeans.
The Opta supercomputer has a clear second favourite in this section of the World Cup draw. We’d better look at the predictions to see who that will be.
World Cup Group E Predictions
It will be a seismic shock if Germany don’t make the knockout phase. Their chances of qualifying for the last 32 are rated at 96.1%. Germany also have a 59.9% probability of topping Group E based on the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations. The next likeliest qualifiers are Ecuador (86.9%), with Ivory Coast (64.2%) also having a strong chance. It will be quite the achievement if Curaçao (19.0%) manage to advance to the knockouts.Germany’s pedigree in this competition has few equals. They will be making their 21st FIFA World Cup appearance, more than any other European nation and second to just Brazil (23) overall. The South Americans are the only side to have won the tournament on more occasions too, with five victories to Germany’s four.
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2 weeks ago Matt FurnissRecent tournaments have not been so kind to Die Mannschaft, though. They failed to reach the knockout stages in 2018 and 2022 having been champions in 2014.
In fairness to Germany, they certainly created enough chances to advance four years ago. Their 3.4 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes were the highest of any nation, ahead of Brazil (2.20) and eventual champions Argentina (2.15).
Although Germany played only three matches, they tallied the fourth-highest xG of any team (10.1) in Qatar 2022, underachieving that xG total by 4.1 goals (6 goals scored). That saw Germany end the tournament as the biggest underperformers in front of goal across all 32 teams.
Where manager Hansi Flick failed in Qatar, Julian Nagelsmann will hope to succeed in the United States. He steered Germany through qualifying comfortably enough, with five wins from six matches.
Much of their success was down to Newcastle’s Leroy Sané and Enner Valencia. He has scored six of Ecuador’s last seven goals at the World Cup and bagged six with two assists in qualifying.
The other nation with a better-than-even chance of playing knockout football this summer is Ivory Coast, something they did not achieve in their first three appearances at the World Cup. As this is their first since 2014, a new generation of players could succeed where their predecessors failed.
Manager Emerse Faé was part of their 2006 squad but didn’t feature in Germany that year. Appointed in January 2024, midway through the Africa Cup of Nations, Faé led the team to victory in that tournament, before reaching the quarter-finals in the 2025 edition.
He has a team that is robust in defence and varied in attack. Ivory Coast did not concede a single goal in their 10 qualifying matches for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 15 different players scoring at the other end.
The key man is perhaps
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