The expanded College Football Playoff means new teams each year will have an opportunity to debut in the event and compete for a national championship.
In 2025, we saw first-time appearances from Texas A&M, Miami, Ole Miss, Tulane, James Madison and Texas Tech. This story will identify 4 potential newcomers to the CFP ahead of what’s sure to be an exciting 2026 season.
Who will make the College Football Playoff for the first time in 2026?
Let’s dive in:
Florida
Florida turned over its program to Jon Sumrall this offseason, who brought in former Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to run the offense. That move is a significant source of optimism for the Gators to be good in Year 1 — and potentially have a chance to reach the CFP for the first time despite inexperience at the quarterback position. While Aaron Philo hasn’t played much, he is very familiar with Faulkner’s system and should be able to execute at a high level. It’s also worth noting that UF is No. 1 in the country in defensive returning production, per ESPN.
Florida’s path to the CFP would likely be similar to what Oklahoma pulled off a year ago. In 2025, the Sooners taught us that a truly elite defense and timely explosive plays on offense can sometimes be enough to go 10-2. Florida’s schedule lends itself to some high-end outcomes with CFP hopefuls like Ole Miss and Oklahoma being forced to go to Gainesville. The Gators do have their annual rivalry game with Georgia (in Atlanta this year) and a tough road game against Texas. Their median expected outcome is probably around 8 wins, but there’s certainly upside for more if Florida can catch some breaks.
Odds: Florida +375 to make the CFP (via BetMGM)
BYU
Last season, BYU had to scramble to replace quarterback Jake Retzlaff in the middle of the offseason and ended up with a solid outcome in Bear Bachmeier as both a passer (7.8 yards per attempt, 139 passer efficiency rating) and runner (527 yards, 11 touchdowns). Bachmeier now has a full offseason as the starter under his belt and should be able to take a step forward in 2026. Defensively, BYU ranks No. 6 in the country in returning production per ESPN).
Schedule-wise, BYU has a marquee nonconference game against Notre Dame in Provo. Beyond that matchup, the rivalry game against Utah will likely determine BYU’s place in the Big 12 standings. The Cougars avoid Texas Tech, which is crucial. There’s a reasonable path to BYU going 10-2 and playing the Red Raiders or Utes in the Big 12 Championship Game for a spot in the CFP.
Odds: BYU +400 to make the CFP (via bet365)
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Prediction Markets College Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026 Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Notre Dame 77% Oregon 76% Georgia 74% Miami (FL) 72% Texas Tech 69% Ohio St. 68% Indiana 67% Texas 61% LSU 43% Ole Miss 36% PredictUSC
Shockingly, USC has never made the College Football Playoff. The Trojans have been an abject failure for most of the 16 seasons since Pete Carroll departed. Lincoln Riley’s first year would have had the Trojans in an expanded CFP, but that’s as close as they’ve been in 4 years at the helm. The 2026 campaign may be different, though. USC showed significant progress on defense last season and it returns quarterback Jayden Maiava.
USC’s schedule is brutal. The Trojans draw the Big Ten’s 3 best teams — Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. However, 2 of those games are at home. USC also doesn’t face Notre Dame this season as that rivalry has been put on pause. Road games have been an issue under Riley, but USC’s are manageable this season outside of a trip to Bloomington (Rutgers, Penn State, Wisconsin, UCLA). Given this schedule, a 10-2 record would almost certainly be enough to get USC into the CFP.
Odds: USC +280 to make the CFP (via bet365)
Louisville
Louisville is coming off of back-to-back 8-4 regular seasons under Jeff Brohm, so there’s not a lot of pedigree on this roster. The Cardinals have a new quarterback in Lincoln Kienholz, who is a former Ohio State backup with a reputation for being an elite athlete. Kienzholz is unproven, but Brohm typically gets the most out of his quarterbacks and I expect this Cardinals’ offense to be good once again.
Schedule-wise, Louisville avoids Miami during the regular season. The Cardinals have a tough season-opener against Ole Miss in Nashville, but that strikes me as a potentially-winnable game. Road ACC games against NC State, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and North Carolina aren’t too scary. Even if Louisville drops the opener to Ole Miss, the schedule is favorable enough that the Cardinals could still get to the ACC Championship Game. If Louisville beats Ole Miss and takes care of business in ACC play, an at-large bid could be on the table.
Odds: Louisville +550 to make the CFP (via BetMGM)
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