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Lauren Gambino
Some of the most crucial races to flip are now set for November, with massive spending expected in contests seen as toss-ups, but even in those rated to lean toward Republicans given the national headwinds against the party in power.
In New Jersey, Democrats nominated former healthcare executive and US navy veteran Rebecca Bennett after a crowded primary to take on Republican congressman Tom Kean Jr, who ran unopposed, in a suburban swing district that Trump carried narrowly last year. The race took on a renewed importance in recent months, as constituents – and colleagues – question his whereabouts amid a mysterious three-month absence from Congress.
In Iowa, where Democrats are expected to spend big, rematches were set in districts that two years ago produced some of the closest House races in the country. And a more moderate challenger running on a “prairie populism” message gave Democrats hope they could win the US Senate seat that is open after incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run.
Josh Turek, who represents a Trump-friendly legislative district in the state legislature beat out state senator Zach Wahls, who was running a more anti-establishment campaign, and will face former broadcaster Ashley Hinson this fall.
After Turek’s win, Cook Political Report moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican”, noting that Turek’s life story (he was born with spina bifida from his father’s exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam, uses a wheelchair and is a Paralymic gold medalist) and moderate appeal could grab voters in a dismal environment for Republicans.
In a statement after his win, Turek said: “I will be a real fighter for Iowans, the middle class and our working families. So from now until November, I welcome all Iowans – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike – to join our team.”
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California’s crowded primary for governor remains up in the air after three leading candidates tested voters’ appetites for an experienced politician or promises of sweeping change.
Though votes were still being counted, Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton started looking to November, laying out their visions for leading the nation’s most populous state and one of the world’s largest economies.
It followed Tuesday’s primary votes, that could see critical districts flip in both the House and Senate, setting up a series of high-stakes general election contests in a midterm year expected to favor Democrats.
Among the most watched races are: a New Jersey Democrat who could oust a Republican incumbent absent with a mystery medical issue for months, several Iowa Democrats hoping to flip their red-leaning state, as well as California’s redrawn maps that have given Democrats an advantage in the heavily blue state.
In the golden state’s governor race, only two will advance to the general election, however, and the Associated Press has not yet called the primary for any candidate but Hilton and Becerra were leading so far, with Steyer running slightly further back.
“Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue,” Hilton told supporters after polls closed, reflecting his campaign message that the state needs a dramatic reset after more than 15 years of Democratic rule.
Steyer also campaigned on change and declared Tuesday that he would prevail over monied interests that strived to defeat him.
Becerra pitched himself as the steady hand who can lead the state against intrusions from the Trump administration. “The underdog stayed in the fight,” Becerra said to applause.
In other developments:
Karen Bass came out ahead in Tuesday’s heated primary for Los Angeles mayor, but with less than 50% of the vote will have to defend her seat in November’s general election. She’ll likely run against either Spencer Pratt, a former reality TV star, or city council member Nithya Raman.
Iowa state representative Josh Turek won the Democratic nomination for the state’s open US Senate seat – setting him up to face off against Ashley Hinson in the November general election. A former television anchor turned state senator, Hinson was endorsed by Donald Trump and retiring senator Joni Ernst.
Adam Hamawy won the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 12th congressional district, teeing the army doctor and political newcomer up to face off against Republican Gregg Mele in November’s general election. Hamawy decided to run for office after returning from a medical mission in Gaza in 2024 and meeting congresswoman Bonnie Watson Coleman, who announced her retirement in November 2025.
Deb Haaland won the Democratic nomination for governor in New Mexico. If elected in the November general election, Haaland would become the first Native American woman governor elected in the country.
Christina Bohannan won the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s 1st congressional district. She will compete against incumbent Republican congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the November general election
Zach Lahn narrowly won the Republican nomination for governor, and will face off against Democrat Rob Sand in Iowa’s general election this November. Five Republicans competed for the nomination to replace retiring Republican governor Kim Reynolds.
Former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Benett won the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, and will challenge Republican congressman Tom Kean Jr. in the general election. Kean, who’s been absent from Congress, citing a health issue, since March shared a statement on social media saying he’s “more energized than ever” and will “be completely transparent as to the nature of my medical condition” when he returns to work in “a matter of weeks”.
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