If England were to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, who would they have to beat? We’ve had a go at mapping out their potential route to the World Cup final on 19 July in New Jersey.
England’s men’s team haven’t won a major international trophy since 1966. But what if the 2026 FIFA World Cup can end that run of six decades without success? Who would Thomas Tuchel’s side have to beat en route to a glorious victory?
We can’t predict the future, but with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we can at least give a probabilistic estimate of what could happen. Let’s establish the ‘what if’ scenarios and map out England’s route to the World Cup final.
So, here we go. How can England win the 2026 World Cup?
Group StageGroup L vs Croatia, Ghana and Panama
Let’s kick off with the group stage. England, as one of the 12 teams from Pot 1, were drawn as top seed into Group L, alongside Croatia, Ghana and Panama. On the face of it, it’s quite a kind draw, and the Opta supercomputer’s numbers reflect that.
Across its 10,000 tournament simulations, England made it through to the knockout stage 96.0% of the time and won Group L in 67.9% of the sims. They are the third-likeliest side to win their group at the 2026 World Cup behind only Spain (75.3%) and Argentina (73.0%).
The supercomputer is less certain about who joins England in qualifying for the knockouts from Group L, but Croatia are deemed the next-most likely (77.8%) ahead of Ghana (49.7%) and Panama (39.4%).
With eight teams able to qualify for the last 32 with a third-place finish in the group stage, there’s a strong chance only one team will be sent packing from Group L. In fact, this expanded World Cup will see just 12 of the 48 teams (33%) knocked out in the group phase.
If the Three Lions top Group L, they’ll face one of the eight teams to qualify as third-place finishers in the group stage. The winners of Group L (who the Opta supercomputer thinks will be England) will face a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K.
Last 32 (96.0% chance of making it this far)England vs DR Congo
According to the Opta supercomputer’s latest projections, the teams most likely to finish third in Groups E, H, I, J and K are Ivory Coast (Group E), Saudi Arabia (H), Senegal (I), Algeria (J) and DR Congo (K).
Predicting exactly who England will face in the last 32 if they get there is hard considering the 495 possible combinations, but the winners of Group L end up playing the third-placed team from Group K in 330 of them (66.7%). Therefore, England are most likely to come up against DR Congo on 1 July in Atlanta.
DR Congo have only appeared in one previous World Cup tournament, back in 1974 as Zaire, when they lost all three games, failed to score and conceded 14 times. Although this side enters the competition in entirely different circumstances, the omens for them in a duel with England wouldn’t be great.
England have played an African side on eight previous occasions at the World Cup and never lost (W5 D3), including a 3-0 win over Senegal at the last tournament in 2022.
Progression through this matchup, were it to occur, would see England play their last-16 tie in Mexico City on 5 July. Their opposition would be…
Last 16 (69.1% chance of making it this far)England vs Mexico
What a test this would be for England.
Mexico are deemed the likeliest side to top Group A with the Opta supercomputer (47.8%), and you would have to expect the co-hosts to defeat a third-place qualifier in the round of 32.That would mean England go up against Mexico at the Azteca in the capital. A partisan crowd is sure to await the Three Lions in sweltering heat.
England’s only previous World Cup meeting with Mexico came in similar circumstances, just with roles reversed. England were hosts at Wembley Stadium in the 1966 group stage, coming out 2-0 winners en route to winning their only World Cup title.
The Three Lions have faced a host nation on three previous occasions in World Cup history; they lost 2-1 to Italy in the 1990 third-place play-off but kept a clean sheet in group matches against Spain (0-0) in 1982 and Switzerland (2-0) in 1954.
Facing Mexico is far from a given, though. With no team from the world’s top 20 in it, Group A doesn’t look as strong as many of the other pools, but that may also mean it is one of the most open. Mexico might be the favourites to win that group, but there’s no ruling out South Africa, South Korea or Czechia coming up against England instead.
Quarter-Finals (47.7% chance of making it this far)England vs Brazil
According to the Opta supercomputer projections, England would most likely go on to face Brazil in the quarter-finals on 5 July at the Metlife Stadium, New Jersey.
Brazil, of course, have won the men’s World Cup more often than any other nation (five times) but are looking to be victorious for the first time in 24 years. That wait is still not as long as England’s 60 years since picking up their only title in 1966, though it’s significant in the context of their own successes.
At the time of publication, England reached the quarter-finals the third-most often of all teams across the 10,000 tournament simulations by the Opta supercomputer (47.7%), with Brazil doing so 38.2% of the time (sixth most).
If England are to progress to the semi-finals of this World Cup, there’s a strong chance they’ll have to beat Brazil for the first time ever at an international tournament.
England’s previous four meetings with Brazil have seen them draw once, in the 1958 group stage, and lose in 1962, 1970 and 2002. Two of those – 1962 and 2002 – were in quarter-final ties, with the last featuring Ronaldinho’s infamous lob over David Seaman from long range in Shizuoka, Japan.
A victory over the Brazilians – or whoever else they might meet in the quarter-finals – would see them qualify for the World Cup semi-finals for just the fourth time.
Semi-Finals (30.3% chance of making it this far)England vs Argentina
A win over Brazil could set up a semi-final clash with rivals Argentina on 11 July in Miami.
At the time of writing, the Opta supercomputer projects that both Argentina and England will be two of the four teams in the World Cup semi-finals 9.2% of the time. For that to happen, both would have to win their group and then progress through three knockout rounds.
Nearly all of England’s World Cup clashes with Argentina have been packed with incident and controversy.
This would be England’s first tournament match against Argentina since David Beckham scored a match-winning penalty in their 2002 group-stage clash in the Sapporo Dome. It was redemption for Beckham, having been sent off for kicking out at Diego Simeone in their 1998 last-16 clash, which Argentina eventually won via a penalty shootout.
In 1986, Diego Maradona’s famous ‘Hand of God’ goal was followed by a superb solo effort dubbed the ‘Goal of the Century’ to knock England out of the World Cup at the quarter-final stage. Twenty years earlier, England’s win over Argentina in the 1966 quarter-finals saw Argentina’s captain Antonio Rattín sent off before refusing to leave the pitch.
To continue their journey in this tournament, the Three Lions may have to do something that nobody else has managed in World Cup history: knock Argentina out at the semi-final stage.
Argentina’s five previous World Cup semi-finals have seen them progress to the final each time, in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022, when they eventually beat France in the final.
England have been eliminated in their last two World Cup semi-finals, losing to Croatia in 2018 and being defeated on penalties by West Germany in 1990. The only occasion they’ve made it through to the final of the World Cup, they won it…
Final (19.0% chance of making it this far)England vs Spain
So, could England end their 60 years of hurt and lift the men’s FIFA World Cup trophy for a second time?
Thomas Tuchel’s side reached the final in nearly a fifth of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament simulations (19.0%), going on to win it 11.2% of the time. The only two teams to win the World Cup more often across the sims were Spain (16.1%) and France (13.0%).
England faced Spain in the final in 4.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-tournament simulations. It would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 showpiece, when Spain prevailed 2-1 thanks to Mikel Oyarzabal’s 86th-minute winner.
The Three Lions have won just one of their last five meetings with Spain, that coming in a UEFA Nations League clash in October 2018. Then, England raced into a 3-0 lead inside 39 minutes in Seville before holding off a Spanish comeback to win 3-2.
Can England avenge their Euro 2024 final defeat and repeat the success of 1966? We’ll soon find out.
All prediction numbers correct as of 1 June 2026
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Mapping Out England’s Potential Route to 2026 World Cup Glory Opta Analyst.
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