Who Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions ...Middle East

Forty-eight teams will battle it out for glory in North America, but who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? We asked the Opta supercomputer for its predictions before the tournament kicks off on 11 June.

With one of the most dramatic club seasons in recent memory only just behind us, the stakes are about to get even higher, with the biggest prize in football up for grabs at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

For the first time, 48 nations will compete to lift the World Cup trophy in an expanded tournament, which will be jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada across 16 stadiums.

U.S. President Donald Trump and FIFA chief Gianni Infantino will present the winning country with the trophy in East Rutherford, New Jersey when the competition concludes with the World Cup final on 19 July.

Before reaching that point, soccer fans around the globe will be treated to more than five weeks of action from 11 June, with 104 matches taking place at a World Cup containing more teams, more rounds and (almost certainly) more goals than ever before.

Teams will battle it out to emerge from 12 different groups and reach a knockout stage that now features a round of 32 – a new addition at international football’s showpiece event.

It is Argentina who go into the World Cup as defending champions after Lionel Messi helped to guide La Albiceleste to a famous triumph in Qatar towards the end of 2022.

They are one of six participants from South America, along with five-time winners Brazil, who are now led by Carlo Ancelotti as the Seleção seek to end a barren run since claiming their last crown back in 2002.

A third of the nations (16 in total) are from Europe, including eight-time finalists Germany and 2018 winners France, although the UEFA contingent again does not contain Italy, who were the only one of eight former World Cup champions not to qualify this time around.

Nine sides emerged from the AFC’s Asian qualification, while New Zealand are the sole representatives for the OFC region and the lowest-ranked team to reach the finals.

Cape Verde have qualified for the first time and are among 10 countries from Africa, while the three co-hosts make up half of six teams from the CONCACAF region.

Along with Cape Verde, the presence of Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan means there are four World Cup debutants this year.

We haven’t even mentioned England yet – so how likely is it that the Three Lions will end their long wait for international glory? And what about the highly fancied current European champions Spain?

As such a wide range of countries with very different World Cup histories fight it out, the 23rd edition may well prove to be the most compelling. It may also be the most difficult yet to make predictions for.

Thankfully, we can turn to the Opta supercomputer to provide a comprehensive World Cup forecast that sets realistic expectations for supporters of all 48 nations.

As the tournament draws ever closer, getting stuck into the Opta supercomputer’s projections is the perfect way to whet your appetite while brushing up on some stimulating statistics.

We asked the supercomputer to simulate the 2026 World Cup 10,000 times, and it has produced some fascinating conclusions in its official pre-tournament predictions.

World Cup 2026 Predictions

Spain are the World Cup Favourites

The Opta supercomputer has picked Spain as its pre-tournament favorites to win the World Cup, with them doing so in 16.1% of its projections.In a huge field of 48 teams, there is a wide range of potential outcomes, and no team is going to achieve sky-high percentages.

But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time.

La Roja have a greater than one-in-three chance (39.0%) of reaching the semis and made the final 25.6% of the time.

The supercomputer believes Spain have a chance to ease into the tournament, as they topped Group H in a massive 75.3% of sims, with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde representing a reasonably kind draw.

That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.

Why are Spain seen as the team to beat?

The generational talent Yamal is of course part of that logic. He was in the squad that swept all before them to win Euro 2024 in such impressive style just two summers ago.

And Yamal goes into the tournament in fine form. Among La Liga players, only Kylian Mbappé (48) had more goal involvements in all competitions this season than the winger’s 41 (24 goals and 17 assists).

Since winning the Euros, Spain have kept up the momentum. They made it to the UEFA Nations League final – where it took a penalty shootout for Portugal to beat them – and eased through qualification, topping Türkiye to go unbeaten across six games.

Man City midfielder Rodri is fit again and set to captain the team, while Yamal’s team-mate, striker Ferran Torres, is coming off an impressive campaign for title winners Barça. Mikel Oyarzabal and Mikel Merino were among Spain’s star performers in qualifying.

So, is there any hope for the teams trying to stop them? Well, when it comes to major tournaments, Spain tend to perform better in the Euros than they do in World Cups.

Of course, they were famously crowned world champions in South Africa – but that 2010 success also represents the only time they have reached the semi-finals from their last 14 participations.

Still, the supercomputer is clear. If a team wants to win the World Cup this summer, they will likely have to overcome a formidable obstacle in Spain.

Contenders to Win the World Cup

According to the Opta supercomputer, there are six other teams who should go into the tournament with strong hopes of going all the way.

Within that sextet, three teams are seen as the biggest challengers to Spain and three others, while very much in the mix, might need a little more good fortune to go their way if they are to emerge triumphant.

Coming closest to Spain in the pre-tournament predictions are France (13.0%), who have contested the last two finals, long-suffering England (11.2%) and defending champions Argentina (10.4%).

France

France are seen as having the most difficult group of the leading teams, as they face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I.

Argentina (73.0%) and England (67.9%), by comparison, are far likelier to top their respective pools than Les Bleus (60.3%).

But if France make the quarter-finals (they did so in 47.9% of sims), they then start to fare increasingly better in our projections. Ultimately, they made the final 21.3% of the time and emerged as the second-likeliest victors.

Whatever happens, the 2026 World Cup will mark the end of an era in French football.

Didier Deschamps, who triumphed in 2018, is set to stand down as head coach after 14 years at the helm and will hope to go out with a bang to cement his legacy as France’s greatest boss.

Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998, and this World Cup will be the first for Mbappé as France skipper.

Mbappé was in free-scoring form for Real Madrid again this season and is already chasing Miroslav Klose’s all-time record of 16 World Cup goals, having superbly netted 12 times in just two editions of the tournament (four in 2018, eight in 2022).

France have reached the final in four of the last seven editions – twice as often as any other nation during that period – and it would be a surprise if they were not there or thereabouts once again.

England

After feeling able to leave out the likes of Cole Palmer, Morgan Gibbs-White and Phil Foden, Thomas Tuchel is clearly confident in the array of creative options he has in his squad.

Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award.

A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks.

The striker is already the record goalscorer for England and has remained a pivotal figure for Tuchel, under whom the early returns have been strong.

England finished with eight wins – and eight clean sheets – from as many matches in qualifying, becoming only the second team ever to win all their games in a UEFA campaign without conceding, after Yugoslavia in 1954.

Among all teams, England are the second-likeliest to feature in the quarter-finals (47.7%), and the Three Lions – who are packed with star quality as Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice prepare to play key roles – go into the tournament rated as third favourites to go all the way.

After coming so close to major tournament glory by reaching two consecutive Euros finals, could 2026 finally be England’s year to end their 60-year trophy drought, this time on the grandest stage of all?

Argentina

Holders Argentina are expected to make a fast start. Only one other nation – the outright favorites Spain – are likelier to win their pool than the reigning champions, with a favourable Group J draw pitting them against Austria, Algeria and Jordan.

While they are rated just below the leading European contenders in Spain, France and England overall, this section can be considered as a ‘big four’ – as La Albiceleste still made the final at a punchy rate of 18.1%.

History gives Argentina both reasons for hope and worry. In a potential good omen, seven of the eight World Cups held in the Americas have been won by a CONMEBOL nation.

However, Argentina are bidding to defend the World Cup, a feat that is notoriously tough to achieve and something that has not been achieved in the modern era.

Despite France getting incredibly close in Qatar, the last team retain the global crown was Argentina’s fierce rivals Brazil, way back in 1962.

More heroics from talisman Messi are likely needed to get Argentina over the line again.

Messi produced one of the greatest individual World Cup campaigns in Qatar, scoring seven goals and assisting three, while becoming the first player to ever net in the group stage, last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of a single edition.

And the 38-year-old has continued to post stunning MLS numbers for Inter Miami over recent seasons as he prepares to lead his nation. With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals.

Portugal, Brazil and Germany Pose Threat

In the next group of World Cup contenders, we have Portugal (7.0%), Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%).

All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final. The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer.

Despite sitting a little below the top four nations, these sides are also contenders. If any of them capture form and momentum at the right time, they will prove tough to stop.

Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his trophy cabinet.

Ronaldo and his great rival Messi will make history this summer when they appear, becoming the first players to participate in six separate World Cups.

After winning the Saudi Pro League with Al-Nassr, Ronaldo is eyeing the chance to bounce back from what was, by his extremely high standards, a poor major tournament at Euro 2024, an event he ended without a goal.

Ronaldo is the only player to score in five different World Cups and he will be supplied chances by Bruno Fernandes, who is fresh off a sensational season for Manchester United, where he set a new Premier League record for assists (21) in a single campaign.

Portugal go into the World Cup with momentum after winning the Nations League under Roberto Martínez. They made it to the last four at a healthy rate of 23.9%.

Five-time winners Brazil are the only side to qualify for every edition of the World Cup, though the Seleção cut things a little too fine this time around, finishing fifth in CONMEBOL’s qualifiers.

It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994.

But, of course, that previous World Cup dry spell ended with victory in a tournament hosted by the United States.

Brazil usually hit the ground running. They have topped their first-round pool in every World Cup since 1982 and have a 60.4% chance of winning Group C.

Ancelotti is armed with attacking talent, having opted to select record goalscorer Neymar in addition to stars like Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Matheus Cunha. His squad have a 22.1% hope of making the last four, at which stage few would want to face them.

As for Germany, they will make their 21st World Cup appearance – which is more than any other European nation.

It is never wise to rule Germany out, though it is 12 years since they played in a World Cup knockout game (when they beat Argentina in the 2014 final), and Julian Nagelsmann’s side have now appeared at four consecutive major tournaments without reaching a semi-final.

Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich provide the experience, but Germany may need a big tournament from Liverpool star Florian Wirtz if they are to improve their recent fortunes.

Germany are overdue a strong result, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance of achieving that, as they were finalists in 10.6% of sims.

The Best of the Rest

We have covered the seven teams who are most likely to win the tournament, but there are also a few other potential winners.

Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia and Morocco should all realistically target a long run and are dark horses to go the distance.

Netherlands (3.6%) and Norway (3.5%) rank highest in terms of possible World Cup winners. The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final.

For example, if Netherlands finish second in Group F – not inconceivable as they face decent opposition in Japan, Sweden and Tunisia – they would then have to play the winners of Group C – most likely Brazil – in the round of 32.

However, if Netherlands and Norway do reach the last 16, they are then seen as extremely dangerous.

Netherlands have reached the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), while Norway are flying having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with 37 goals – the most of any team. 

Erling Haaland struck 16 times in just eight games, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign.

Remarkably, Haaland’s total did not include a single penalty, and it featured a record five-goal haul in Norway’s 11-1 home win against Moldova.

Arsenal’s Martin Ødegaard had seven assists, four of which were for Haaland, and all eyes will be on how those two Premier League stars fare in their first World Cup.

An interesting counter example is Belgium. They are deemed likelier than Netherlands and Norway to top their pool given they take on Egypt, Iran and New Zealand in a weaker Group G, but then are less likely to win outright at 2.4%.

It’s not a big surprise to see leading European nations join traditional World Cup heavyweights Argentina and Brazil as the top 10 teams tipped to challenge this summer.

But if you are looking for sides outside of those usual powerhouses, then it’s worth checking out Colombia (2.1%) and Morocco (1.9%).

Colombia were not even at the last World Cup but are a team to watch out for this time. They were Copa America runners-up on U.S. soil in 2024, only losing the final to Argentina in extra-time, and they also finished third in CONMEBOL qualifying.

Morocco, meanwhile, are the highest-rated African team after they were superbly shock semi-finalists in Qatar.

They won’t have the same surprise factor this time around but still made it to what proved to be a chaotic AFCON final this year and started the month of June sitting a lofty eighth in the FIFA world rankings.

The supercomputer expects Morocco to pose a real threat and their opener against Brazil on 13 June is perhaps the standout fixture in the first week of the tournament.

There are two other potentially pivotal group clashes to circle on your calendar by the time we reach MD3, as France take on Norway in Foxborough on 26 June, while Colombia battle Portugal in Miami a day later.

What Chance Do the Co-Hosts Have?

The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments.

France became the sixth team to win as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then.

If there is to be a shock host success, then our model is most optimistic about USA.

Given they are playing in the tournament’s most competitive pool, Mauricio Pochettino needs his team to start strongly. They are narrow favourites (32.8%) to top Group D, with their opponents being Paraguay, Türkiye and Australia.

If they get out of that tight group, further progress in the knockouts is possible.

In terms of winning the tournament, USA’s chances are more remote but still respectable at 1.2%. That puts them close to Switzerland, two-time winners Uruguay and Ecuador in our overall projections.

Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims. They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia.

They are more likely than not (52.0%) to get as far as the last 16 and have a healthy 24.2% chance of making the last eight.

But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal.

Canada also just make it into the top half of the 48 teams (they rank joint 22nd, level with Paraguay and Austria).

Jesse Marsch has a 42.7% chance of leading his team to the last 16, which would represent a magnificent performance. They are expected to challenge Switzerland for top spot in Group B.

World Cup Outsiders and Debutants

Croatia rank just above co-hosts USA and place 15th overall in terms of potential winners with a 1.6% chance.

That may come as a surprise given Croatia were runners-up in 2018 and then came third in 2022, but with many of their stars now past their prime, they go into the latest edition as outsiders, not particularly fancied by the supercomputer.

Ecuador (1.4%) are potentially tricky opponents who the top teams will want to avoid. They impressively finished second in South American qualifying and conceded just five goals in 18 matches.

They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16.

We have mentioned the teams in the top 24, but what of the sides who feature in the bottom half of our projections?

The first takeaway is we should rule little out. For example, Australia won the World Cup 28 times in our pre-tournament sims and Scotland prevailed on 22 occasions – so fans have permission to dream.

In a five-week knockout competition there is massive variance. Just one shock exit from a tournament favourite can cause other dominos to fall and the draw can suddenly open up for an unexpected team to challenge.

With that in mind, there are not many outcomes which can be completely dismissed. But there is one scenario our supercomputer is willing to rule out, as the only team who never won the tournament in any of our 10,000 simulations was Curaçao. So, yes, Haiti unbelievably won the 2026 World Cup once in our 10,000 simulations.

While 47 countries won the tournament at least once in our sims overall, for the teams rated 25-48, a successful tournament would realistically constitute emerging from their groups.

The last time a new team reached the knockout stage was Slovakia in 2010, but what are the chances of one of the four 2026 debutants doing the same?

Unfortunately, Cape Verde and Curaçao are expected to struggle.

Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%).

The supercomputer is a bit kinder to Uzbekistan (0.1%) and Jordan (0.1%), but both teams will still be doing well to get out of their groups. Their chances are 41.4% and 40.8% respectively.

Elsewhere, the presence of departing Liverpool great Mohamed Salah means Egypt (0.4%) are among the biggest threats from the bottom half of our projections. They have a 30.6% chance of getting into the last 16.

Australia (0.3%) might punch above their weight too. They are in an evenly matched pool, and while seen as the least likely team to win Group D, they still have a decent 17.9% hope of topping the table. The Socceroos are more likely than not to progress to the knockouts (59.2%) and have a 26.3% chance of reaching the last 16 to match their best-ever performance.

Of the teams in the bottom quarter of our projections, there are a few standout nations who the system thinks could spring a surprise.

South Africa (0.1%) are the joint 37th likeliest winners of the World Cup but still have a healthy 49.3% chance of making the knockouts, helped by being in a group where co-hosts Mexico are the top seeds.

Scotland (0.2%) are rated just ahead of South Africa. Steve Clarke’s side have an incredibly tough group given they face Brazil and Morocco, but the presence of Haiti – who our system sees as the weakest country involved – gives them real hope.

Before a ball has been kicked, Scotland’s likeliest result is seen as elimination in the round of 32. They made it out of their group two-thirds of the time (66.1%), and a last-16 berth is a realistic objective, as this was achieved at a rate of 24.4%.

New Zealand, meanwhile, have a 47.8% hope of finding a way out of Group G. That’s another tight pool, as Belgium are favourites, but Egypt and Iran are also expected to compete.

Back to Haiti, Cape Verde and Curaçao. While our percentages have not proven overly kind to them, we should be clear that just reaching the tournament is a spectacular accomplishment.

Curaçao are the smallest nation by both area and population to ever get this far and following their progress is one of many fascinating subplots to look out for in a World Cup that is not to be missed.

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Who Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The Opta Supercomputer Predictions Opta Analyst.

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