There hasn’t been a whole lot to write home about during the Cubs’ nine-game losing streak, and this stretch where they’ve lost 13 of 15.
One thing that’s been unflappably good throughout, though? Ben Brown as a starting pitcher.
After breaking camp in the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever, circumstances foisted Brown into the rotation, where he made his first start of the year May 8 in Texas. He threw 4.0 innings of no-hit ball (he was on a pitch count at that point, stretching out), and the Cubs won the game to stretch their winning streak to 10 games. Since that moment, well, you know.
But again, Brown has been great throughout, and he did it again yesterday, allowing just one run over his 6.0 innings of work, with four hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts.
Sure, there were a few warts on contact that COULD have done a lot more damage. But that’s the point of getting a whopping 37% CSW (i.e., 37% of his pitches were either a called strike or a whiff), seven strikeouts, and a groundball rate near 60%(!!!). You do those things, and the opportunities to really hurt you with quality contact deep in the outfield is necessarily going to be reduced.
Ben Brown has a 1.89 ERA over his four starts, and an even better 1.76 FIP. The strikeout rate is almost 30%, the walk rate is under 8%, and the groundball rate is nearly 60%. Those numbers are basically the platonic ideal of an elite starting pitcher, which is what Brown has been so far this year.
Lingering on that groundball rate for just a moment, because it’s the part that stands out the most and I want to give it some context: if he kept his 57.8% groundball rate as a starting pitcher up the rest of the way, he’d be only barely behind Cristopher Sanchez for the HIGHEST starter groundball rate in baseball. Is that really who Ben Brown is as a starting pitcher? A super-duper elite groundball guy? Kinda wild.
Now, to be fair, those starts comprise just 19.0 innings, so we’ll see what we see as the season goes on. Let’s not forget that Brown flashed brief brilliance for a bit back in 2024 before a neck issue sidelined him.
Still, two very big things are different between now and then.
First, Brown isn’t just succeeding for these 19.0 innings. He’s had nearly two years of development time to get more exposure and improve overall, yielding 44.2 innings of dominance this year between the rotation the bullpen. He was outstanding before he moved into the rotation, and it’s not like that doesn’t count for something when projecting him forward.
Second, and much more importantly, this pitcher is simply not the same two-pitch guy from 2024. Ben Brown has worked for years to develop a reliable third pitch, and he finally found it this past offseason in his sinker. No, it’s not an elite sinker by the traditional evaluative metrics, but it’s a usable, big-league-caliber pitch that he can throw with confidence (in and out of the strike zone) against righties, giving them a slightly different look than his four-seamer. Toss in a change-of-pace changeup against lefties that, again, is not a wipeout pitch but is just enough to get a strike or weak contact here and there, and you have a much more complete pitcher.
Something I want to try to better understand in the weeks ahead: although you would expect the addition of a sinker (and an improved changeup) to mean an increase in ground balls, Ben Brown’s groundball rate has EXPLODED in a way that transcends that one pitch. That is to say, even in addition to the other pitch-related groundball improvements, his four-seamer has a 50.0% groundball rate, too! That’s crazy high for a four-seamer that you tend to expect operates at the top of the zone and is more about whiffs and pop ups. The average launch angle on the four-seamer last year was 16 degrees. This year? 3 degrees!
What gives? Hard to say just yet. Although the induced vertical (the ride) has decreased on the pitch, it’s only a very slight decrease from 17.0″ to 16.3″. Ditto the increase in arm-side movement from 7.4″ to 8.1″. Traditionally, you’d want your four-seamer to get MORE ride and LESS arm-side movement – yet Brown’s has moved in the opposite direction (slightly) on both, and he’s seen the productivity on the pitch improve (slightly more whiffs, more chase, much worse contact quality for the batter). I’d chalk it up to improved deception with it bleeding together with the sinker (which is much more four-seamer-y than you’d typically want a sinker) … but he basically only throws the sinker against righties, and throws the four-seamer three times as often against lefties. So his four-seamer is getting much better results against lefties this year … batters who aren’t even seeing the sinker. So … wha?
That’s a good “wha?” by the way. Something is clearly working. I just don’t quite yet fully have my head around it. Hopefully Ben Brown continues doing what he’s been doing and we’ll have many, many more outstanding starts to study.
"A bright spot was Ben Brown going out there and doing his thing. The role he's had for us and the consistency he's had over the last few starts has been pretty amazing."Michael Busch on Ben Brown. pic.twitter.com/OsbueTHbrc
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