Premier League football awaits one of these two teams. We look ahead to Saturday’s Championship play-off final with our Hull City vs Middlesbrough prediction and preview.
Hull City vs Middlesbrough: The Key Stats
Middlesbrough overcame Hull City across 90 minutes in a convincing 51.3% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Hull are looking to become the first team to finish sixth and win promotion to the Premier League since Blackpool in 2009-10. The Championship play-off final will be contested by two managers in their first season in English football for the first time ever.Hull City and Middlesbrough will both hope their football does the talking at Wembley Stadium after a chaotic build-up to Saturday’s Championship play-off final.
Boro lost 2-1 on aggregate to Southampton in the semi-finals, but were reinstated into this showpiece after Tuesday’s verdict that will live long in EFL history. Saints were thrown out after admitting “unauthorised filming” of a Middlesbrough training session before a goalless draw in the first leg, having also confessed similar malpractice against Oxford United and Ipswich Town earlier this season.
Hull, at least, are used to dealing with their own chaos. Having avoided relegation on goal difference last season, and then being hit with a transfer embargo for the 2025-26 campaign, not many would have backed them to be one game away from the so-called promised land.
The Tigers’ shot at a Premier League return largely belongs to Oliver McBurnie as the man for the big stage. Only Zan Vipotnik (26) has been involved in more second-tier goals this season, including play-offs, than the Scottish striker’s 24 (17 goals, 7 assists).
But they will have to keep it tighter down the other end. Only bottom side Sheffield Wednesday (91.9) recorded a higher expected goals against total than Hull (80.2) in the regular Championship campaign.
Jakirović’s side also faced the third-most shots (681) and second-most shots on target (220) in the competition. That may be music to the ears of Boro’s attack, though they will be missing forward Tommy Conway after his ankle injury against Southampton.
Cody Drameh, Darko Gyabi’s winner at the Riverside saw Hull win for just a second time in their last eight meetings with Middlesbrough in all competitions (D1 L5) overall.
And in a strange quirk, this will be the first time ever that the second-tier play-off final has been contested by two managers in their first season in English football.
Hull City vs Middlesbrough Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backed a Middlesbrough victory across 90 minutes in a dominant 51.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Hull are afforded just a 24.3% chance of winning in regular time, with the draw – which would mean extra-time and possibly penalties – occurring in 24.4% of the data-led sims.
Hull City vs Middlesbrough Predicted Lineups
Hull City: Ivor Pandur, Semi Ajayi, John Egan, Charlie Hughes, Lewie Coyle, Ryan Giles, Regan Slater, Matt Crooks, Liam Millar, Joe Gelhardt, Oli McBurnie.
Head coach: Sergej Jakirovic
Middlesbrough: Sol Brynn, Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, Adilson Malanda, Callum Brittain, Aidan Morris, Riley McGree, Matt Targett, Morgan Whittaker, Sontje Hansen, David Strelec.
Head Coach: Kim Hellberg
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Hull City vs Middlesbrough: Opta Supercomputer Championship Play-Off Final Prediction Opta Analyst.
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