This week's mailbag gets into success rates for top-five prospects, the Rangers' woeful offense, Byron Buxton's willingness to accept a trade, and possible CJ Abrams suitors.
Don asks:
Of the Mariners' top drafted-or-or-traded for hitting prospects, three have been outright failures (Dustin Ackley, Jarred Kelenic, Jésus Montero) and only two (A-Rod and Junior) lived up to expectations. Is the M's experience typical of other teams, or do the M's simply have bad vibes?
I guess what I'm asking is what's the success record for, say, the top five prospects each year?
Let's assess the likelihood of success for a Baseball America preseason top five prospect! For this mini-study, I decided to end with the year 2019. That way, we're capturing players who have mostly had their chance to make a Major League impact, particularly within their six-year control period.
There is subjectivity to this process, but a sample of around 50 different players feels appropriate. To reach that total, I had to look at the time period of 2007-19, since many players are ranked top five in multiple years. For what it's worth, Ackley fell outside this sample because he topped out at #11, while Kelenic was omitted because his highest prospect ranking in 2021 at #4.
Jesus Montero is on here, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are not only because I didn't extend the study that far back.
My way of assessing this is to look at the player's FanGraphs WAR for his first six years of team control. Finding that window for each player requires some manual legwork, which is why I didn't make the sample larger. Check out my data here!
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