Prediction market analysts uncovered what looks like blatant insider trading within the U.S. military after a group of nine connected Polymarket accounts won more than $2.4 million by placing bets on Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of data analytics firm Bubblemaps, told CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday that across more than 80 bets, a series of nine anonymous accounts had a 98 percent win rate placing bets on pivotal moments of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman said. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
“We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps.“And now here's the crazy part: 98% win rate.”… pic.twitter.com/YQmRSn30UW
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 17, 2026Last month, federal prosecutors charged Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old active-duty Army soldier involved in the planning and capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with using confidential intel to win $400,000 on Polymarket predictions related to the raid.
“Deebs,” Bubblemap’s head of investigations, who is a former U.S. military officer, told 60 Minutes that military markets are particularly ripe for rigging, as there are many individuals involved in organizing a military operation.
“And that means there are, consequently, a lot of potential insiders,” Deebs said.
David Kovel, a former commodities trader-turned-lawyer representing victims of fraud, pointed to March 23 as a prime example of suspicious trading. That day, just 15 minutes before Trump posted claiming the White House and Iran had “very good and productive” conversations about ending fighting, more than $800 million was staked on the odds that oil prices would drop. Trump’s post sent oil prices plummeting more than 10 percent.
“We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” Kovel told 60 Minutes, adding that blaming insider trading was “a natural conclusion to draw.”
Federal investigators are reportedly probing the oil market trades, but Trump himself doesn’t seem too concerned about reports of insider trading. Instead, he lamented last month that “the whole world has become somewhat of a casino” while quietly planning to launch his own prediction market.
A report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed long shot wagers, meaning bets of more than $2,500 that have a less than 35 percent chance of winning, and found that 52 percent of bets on military and defense actions were successful, the highest rate of any political topic. “These were driven by highly successful wallets placing well-timed bets,” the report said.
The report pointed to the U.S. military’s surprise strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.
“Across day-specific markets that resolved ‘Yes’ after the strike, 19 longshot bets totalling $164,292 were placed in the hours immediately before the operation,” the report said. “Eight wallets walked away with $1.8 million in combined profit—one earning nearly $500,000—despite the strike relying on deception, decoy bombers, and stealth aircraft that left no public signal of timing.”
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