When US President Donald Trump visited China last week, there were warm words and well-orchestrated photo opportunities with his host Xi Jinping, a leader Trump described as a “pretty cool guy”.
But despite the pomp and ceremony, Trump left China without any concrete deals, and this week the Chinese president will be hosting a guest he knows well – and with whom he is building a relationship to challenge American dominance.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is flying to China for his own official state visit, the latest of more than 40 occasions when the two leaders have met.
For Xi – who has recently hosted leaders from the UK, France, Canada and Iran – experts say the talks are all about power, who has it and how they use it – and in that battle, Putin is beating Trump hands down.
Professor Steve Tsang, director of the School of Oriental and African Studies (Soas)’s China Institute, explained how China’s leader views the ways Trump and Putin have used their power on the global stage.
“America is unquestionably the most powerful country in the world. Even Xi Jinping acknowledges that,” he told The i Paper. “But how has Donald Trump used American power? Ineffectively, pointlessly, and counterproductively, if not, frankly, stupidly.”
“In contrast, how has Russia, which has an economy roughly the size of one of China’s provinces, used Russian power? Mightily, effectively, and powerfully.”
For Professor Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, China and Russia are very different powers that operate in different ways but have a shared interest in opposing US and Western dominance, particularly in areas the two nations see as their own backyards, and in strengthening economic ties.
But the balance of power between the two is not equal. “It is an asymmetrical relationship because China is way more powerful. China is a superpower and Russia is not anymore,” argues Brown.
“It’s a complex relationship because they have a massive, shared border and they really want to manage their relationship rather than having strife for the simple fact that their priorities are elsewhere.”
And those priorities for both are challenging the West.
Russia and China have been increasing co-operation across military, political and economic activities, with particularly strong ties over resources, where energy-rich Russia supplies oil, gas and other supplies to an energy-poor China.
Trade between the two powers has grown steadily over the last 10 years, especially since the start of Russia’s war with Ukraine, doubling between 2020 and 2024.
But for Tsang, when Putin and Xi meet in Beijing this week, it will be more about personal relationships than trade balances, and the way the two leaders treat each other is in stark contrast to the way they see Trump.
“Russia and China have the strongest partnership that China has with anybody and that is partly because of the personal relationship between Putin and Xi Jinping,” said Tsang.
“We know that Donald Trump admires Xi Jinping, but that feeling is not reciprocated.
“The positive feelings between Xi Jinping and Putin are mutual. Xi Jinping actually has respect for Putin in ways that he doesn’t with Trump.”
Donald Trump’s recent visit to China did not result in any substantial ‘wins’, according to experts (Photo: Kenny Holston/Reuters)Warm personal relations, shared economic and strategic interests and mutual distrust of the United States and Western power have been key in building closer ties between Russia and China.
But both countries are clear on their own national interests, and Trump – the disruptor-in-chief – has brought the two rivals together in ways that would have been unthinkable with previous administrations, and in a way that is challenging Western unity.
“I don’t think either Xi Jinping or Putin are naive to think that the other one is not going to be working for his interests. They work for their own individual interests, but their interests coincide over the United States,” said Tsang.
“Putin was doing a great job undermining Western unity until Donald Trump came along and does an even more effective job than Putin’s managed to do. But that’s not to say the Chinese do not appreciate what Russia has done.”
Tsang contrasts Trump’s approach with previous US presidents. “Donald Trump is the only American president that would go to China and do his negotiation directly with Xi Jinping, expecting that he will get a deal, but he left Beijing without a deal being firmly agreed and signed.
“[Barrack] Obama wouldn’t have done it. [Joe] Biden wouldn’t have done it. George W Bush wouldn’t have done it. Bill Clinton wouldn’t have done it.
“China is utilising Trump’s weaknesses and his own diplomatic shortfalls for their own purposes.”
The meeting this week between Xi and Putin may not have many public agreements, but the tone is likely to be different to Trump’s visit with issues of substance discussed privately.
“The meetings between China and Russia are always much friendlier, much more relaxed, with smiles all around and very warm language, which contrasts specifically to what happened with the United States last week,” explains Christian Le Miere, distinguished fellow in geopolitical strategy and China expert at the think-tank the Council on Geostrategy.
Behind the smiles both nations will have their own priorities focusing on trade and defence, according to Le Miere. “Russia is obviously very keen to deepen the trade relationship, to sell more oil and gas to China, and to see if it can gain more support in terms of its defence industry.
“On the Chinese side they want to buy cheap energy, and they’re willing to increase in support Russia’s defence industry but are cautions not to entangle themselves too much in the Ukraine conflict,” he said.
While with Trump it is all about the show, Tsang believes that the summit this week will be about what we don’t hear. “I suspect whatever is really important probably won’t be announced,” he said.
“China getting more energy from Russia because of the disruption in the Middle East, and China selling stuff to Russia to help them build drones better more cheaply and more efficiently.
“But the big issue really is the coming together of their strategic interest of challenging the Western alliance. On that they are really reinforcing each other quite well and effectively.”
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