The very difficult decision being made by the Prime Minister at his Chequers retreat this weekend is whether he can re-assert his authority and re-energise his government. This despite knowing that if Burnham wins in Makerfield he will be evicted – or whether he would bring more stability to government by announcing a timetable for a leadership election and his own departure.
That is what his ministers tell me, though they concede that on either course government will lose momentum, at least till it’s known whether Burnham is the new PM or not.
For what it’s worth, some of the cabinet believe it would be less chaotic if he sets the date for his exit, and he could use his time-limited period to shape a positive legacy for himself.
For this contingent, like trade union leaders, the die is already cast that he will have to resign in coming months, whether Burnham is elected an MP or not. And the PM should acknowledge that reality, they say.
Other ministers want him to stay, pointing out that there would be mayhem if Burnham were to lose and it would be preferable in those circumstances for the party to draw breath rather than charge headlong into a leadership election.
Many of those insisting he shouldn’t quit are also those who will be out of a job if Burnham or another candidate replaces him.
One minister insists the choice is not so binary and there are other options that could keep the government show on the road.
This minister said, however, that whatever Starmer decides he will have to spell this out explicitly and in detail to all of us.
The big personal judgment for Starmer is whether he becomes more or less of a lame duck by taking control of the time and manner of his departure, rather than leaving it in the lap of the election gods.
His colleagues don’t know what he will decide.
This article first appeared at itv.com/robertpeston
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