Arsenal will look to deal a blow to Manchester City in the Premier League title race when they host Burnley. We look ahead to the match with our Arsenal vs Burnley preview and prediction.
Arsenal vs Burnley: The Key Stats
Arsenal are massive favourites for this game with Burnley, with the Opta supercomputer giving them an 86.9% win probability. The Gunners have only lost their final home league game in one of the last 28 seasons (W23 D4) and are unbeaten in 14 since a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa in 2010-11 (W12 D2). Arsenal have won all 10 of their Premier League games against sides already relegated that season – the best 100% record in the competition.Arsenal will look to take a massive step towards claiming the Premier League title when they entertain Burnley at Emirates Stadium on Monday.
The stage is set for an enthralling finale, with the Gunners holding a two-point lead over Manchester City at the top of the table with just two games remaining this season.
Should Arsenal increase their advantage to five by overcoming already-relegated Burnley, anything other than a win for City at Bournemouth on Tuesday would see them crowned as champions for the first time in 22 years.
The situation could have been very different for Arsenal had relegation-threatened West Ham not been denied a stoppage-time equaliser following a contentious VAR review at the London Stadium last weekend.
That decision meant Leandro Trossard’s goal was enough for a 1-0 victory and three valuable points.
This time out, Arsenal will be hoping Jurriën Timber (groin) and Hannibal Mejbri would feature after being taken off as a precaution against Villa.
Arsenal vs Burnley Head-to-Head
Arsenal have lost just one of their 19 Premier League games against Burnley (W14 D4), going down 1-0 at home in December 2020 after Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s own goal.
Burnley have never scored more than once in any of their 19 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (9 goals in total).
The Clarets seem unlikely to end that run with the Gunners having won 16 games with a clean sheet this season, only doing so on more occasions in 2023-24 (17).
Seven of those 16 victories this term have been 1-0, with Arsenal last winning more matches by that scoreline in 1998-99 (9).
Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 44 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W39 D5) – a run that stretches all the way back to a 1-0 loss against Newcastle United in November 2010.
The Opta supercomputer‘s 10,000 pre-match simulations suggest they are extremely likely to maintain that undefeated streak, with Burnley only triumphing in 4.5% of the projections.
The probability of a draw is 8.6%, while an Arsenal win is deemed to be the most likely outcome at 86.9%.
Arsenal vs Burnley Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Cristhian Mosquera, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Burnley: Max Weiss, Kyle Walker, Axel Tuanzebe, Maxime Estève, Lucas Pires, Florentino, Lesley Ugochukwu, Loum Tchaouna, Hannibal Mejbri, Jaidon Anthony, Zian Flemming.
Head coach: Mike Jackson
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction: Gunners Aim to Move to Brink of Premier League Glory Opta Analyst.
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