Among the many Blue Jays starters currently on the injured list, José Berríos‘ health situation might be the most perplexing at the moment. Berríos suffered a stress fracture in his throwing elbow during intake physicals for the World Baseball Classic, and that injury flared up again during a minor league rehab stint. Although an update was expected yesterday on Berríos’ condition, there was no clear answer on the current severity of the stress fracture.
If anything, the picture is even murkier now. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet relays comments from manager John Schneider, who says that “surgery is on the table” for Berríos. Schneider doesn’t believe there is any ligament damage, but there may be “loose bodies” in Berríos’ elbow in addition to the stress fracture, according to Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. The latter injury comes with a range of outcomes for recovery. The Braves’ Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both underwent surgery to remove loose bodies in the spring. Schwellenbach is on the 60-day injured list and hasn’t thrown yet, while Waldrep avoided the 60-day IL. In the last month, Tarik Skubal and Edwin Díaz have also undergone surgery for loose bodies, and they’re expected to miss two to three months.
It’s difficult to predict a timeline for Berríos from that range of outcomes. Given his long layoff and the lingering stress fracture, the Jays will understandably proceed with caution. At the moment, that leaves a four-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, and Patrick Corbin. That obviously won’t hold up long-term, and it’s further complicated by the Jays’ hectic schedule in the next two weeks. The team does not have an off day until June 1st, with 17 games between now and then, including tonight. Schneider has said the club will use a spot starter tomorrow, leaving three additional turns through the rotation that need to be covered by a spot starter or bullpen games.
As hectic as their rotation seems, the Jays’ offense got some positive injury updates today. Alejandro Kirk is progressing in his rehab and has responded well to catching, per Nicholson-Smith. According to MLB.com’s injury report, Kirk will catch injured starter Shane Bieber‘s next bullpen session. That bodes well for the health of Kirk’s left thumb, which fractured on April 3rd on a foul tip and necessitated surgery a few days later. At the time, he was projected for a six-week recovery timeline. It remains to be seen how Kirk will fare against live pitching, but for now, the signs point to him being back within or not too far beyond that time frame.
In Kirk’s absence, Toronto’s offense has been a bottom 10 unit in the Majors. Entering play today, the team ranks 23rd with a 93 wRC+. Kazuma Okamoto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are hitting 15-20% better than average by wRC+. However, Andrés Giménez, Davis Schneider, and George Springer are all hitting at least 11% below average. Meanwhile, Kirk has a 110 career wRC+ and an 11.5% career strikeout rate. His eventual return will add a tough out to the lineup and lengthen the group overall. If the Blue Jays elect to keep Brandon Valenzuela on as Kirk’s backup catcher, that could also benefit the offense by limiting playing time for the weak-hitting Tyler Heineman.
Nicholson-Smith also provides an update on Addison Barger. Schneider feels that Barger is “doing better” and will ideally be hitting and throwing by next week. If all goes well, Barger could be back “pretty soon” after that. This current IL placement is Barger’s second of the year, as he previously missed a month due to an ankle sprain. He played one game before injuring his elbow on May 11th and landing back on the IL.
The Jays may understandably be concerned after that succession of injuries, though it’s perhaps a good sign that Barger can be back pretty soon after hitting and throwing drills. Barger has only had 28 plate appearances this year, but he had a 107 wRC+ in 502 plate appearances last year. His underlying metrics suggest that performance is sustainable. Barger’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were in the 86th and 91st percentiles, respectively. Assuming he stays healthy this time, Barger would add depth to Toronto’s lineup, albeit not as impactfully as Kirk.
Photo courtesy of Brian Fluharty, Imagn Images
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