Moises Ballesteros caught again last night, which is as notable as his start behind the plate a couple weeks ago (and his two mid-game substitutions). Any moments where the Cubs get Ballesteros behind the plate in real game action can be valuable for his development, but those moments also communicate two important things: (1) the Cubs feel like Moises Ballesteros is a good enough catcher at present that he’s not going to bury them behind the plate, and (2) the Cubs want Ballesteros’s bat in the lineup as much as possible.
In turn, that second one is notable thanks to the resurgence of Michael Conforto this season. We’ll see how long it lasts, but in a world where both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are healthy and playing well, then you can have only one of Conforto or Ballesteros in your typical lineup on any given day. If Ballesteros can catch periodically, though, then Craig Counsell doesn’t have to choose. Instead, he just gives his two primary catchers an extra day of rest, and optimizes for a lefty-heavy lineup.
As happy as I was to see that last night, I do think it’s worth lingering for a bit on the urgency of keeping Ballesteros’s bat in the lineup. You no doubt have noticed his slump, which has been relatively short-term for Ballesteros, but extraordinarily deep. He hasn’t recorded a hit in 10 days, and you can go all the way back to April 28 and get this almost impossibly ugly line: .051/.136/.128/-23 wRC+. (Yes, negative 23.)
The primary driving force behind that line? No, he’s not striking out a bunch. Instead, it’s the .033 BABIP. That’d be pretty hard to do over 44 plate appearances even if you were trying! It’s even harder to do when you’re posting a 12.9% barrel rate in that time, and a 35.5% hard contact rate. Even the groundball rate is 51.6%, which is definitely way higher than he’ll want it, but doesn’t entirely explain the numbers.
Instead, you get that kind of production (and BABIP) when you have a combination of a small sample, some bad luck, AND some poorer-quality contact.
Are we worried? Eh. This is a young hitter going through the normal ups and downs of adjustment in the league, and he’ll have to learn how to stay true to what makes him good (despite the results) while tweaking at the margins the areas where pitchers are taking advantage.
Without making any big proclamations about two weeks of baseball, there are some things I’ve noticed.
For example, Moises Ballesteros has been seeing fewer fastballs in this stretch, and the ones he has been seeing have been of a much higher relative quality (velo and movement) than the ones he saw before April 28. Unsurprisingly, he has really struggled against the fastballs during these two weeks (though that’s been true of pretty much every pitch type).
Another fairly obvious thing: pitchers have learned that they don’t need to throw him a first-pitch strike (because he’ll take advantage), and they have also learned they can afford to nibble a whole lot more. Hence, his first pitch strike percentage these last two weeks is markedly down (from 69.6% down to 59.1%), and his chase rate is way up (from 33.8% to 40.4%).
Additionally, there’s been a pretty clear move to elevate the fastball on Ballesteros, while working him down and away with the breaking and off-speed stuff (he was getting a LOT of meatballs early on). That’s a very traditional way to attack hitters, so there’s nothing revelatory in it, but I suppose it’s a reminder that, over the course of an MLB season, you might face long stretches of pitchers who are very capable of executing that strategy. Far better than in the minor leagues, for sure.
It would be very unsurprising if the “book” on Ballesteros was challenge him up with good fastballs (you can see with his swing how that might be an area to attack) and to play around the margins with breaking and off-speed stuff (use his superlative contact ability against him). We were always kind of expecting these things, so I anticipate that both Moises Ballesteros and the Cubs were prepared for it. But, in order to succeed against those league adjustments, Ballesteros is just going to need time and reps. See it more, develop out that discipline just a little better, and then the results will return.
While we’re here on Ballesteros, a fun one-on-one interview that shows off a bit more of his personality (and his excellent English):
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