How on earth did it come to this? Those words must be ringing in the ears of more sensible heads in the Trump administration right now.
Late on Monday, Donald Trump warned reporters that the ceasefire between the US and Iran was on “massive life support” and “unbelievably weak”, having rejected Tehran’s counter-proposal for ending the war as “piece of garbage”.
Shortly afterwards, CNN reported that the frustrated President was “now more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations than he has in recent weeks.” The report said that people around Trump, including in the Pentagon, have suggested targeted strikes that significantly weaken Iran could force them into accepting a deal that benefits the US.
Trump may be losing patience, but it goes without saying that this would be an incredibly risky move by the US President, who has already seen his best laid plans go awry: 10 weeks on, the Iranian regime is still in place and has near-total control of the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, it seems Trump has only two options in front of him if he’s sincere about breaking the deadlock: backing down while making dubious claims of victory, or military escalation. If Trump chooses to escalate, we already know what the most likely targets will be: bridges and power plants. He’s already repeatedly threatened such attacks – going so far as saying he’d destroy every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran”.
It is worth noting that there are roughly 300,000 bridges and around 400 power plants at last count. Not all of those bridges are strategically critical to the Iranian regime, and almost all of those power plants have nothing to do with Tehran’s nuclear programme. That would mean the US targeting civilian infrastructure on an unimaginable scale and possibly committing war crimes.
If we are to take Trump’s previous threats with a pinch of salt and assume what he really means is the targeting of strategically critical bridges and nuclear facilities, it would still be a gargantuan task, expending significant US resources, causing possible US military casualties, and in all likelihood leaving Trump pretty much where he already is.
South Korea said the cargo ship HMM Namu was hit in the Strait of Hormuz six days ago by unidentified aircraft (Photo: Handout / South Korean Foreign Ministry / AFP via Getty Images)Last summer, after carrying out airstrikes on Iran in Operation Midnight Hammer, Trump claimed “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” A leaked US intelligence report disputed this, saying “the US set them [Iran’s nuclear plans] back maybe a few months, tops”.
What should be clear to Trump and his inner circle by now is that the Iranian regime can absorb far more firepower and damage than he initially believed. Many of its key strategic facilities are underground, like the Natanz nuclear facilities – which is also believed to have been further fortified since the 2025 attacks. Iran is thought to have thousands of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles still in secret locations, a small stockpile of cruise missiles and the potential to buy Russian drones.
The regime has also shown a willingness to expose civilians to danger for strategic effect. Last month, Iranian citizens formed human chains around potential targets, raising the prospect of mass civilian casualties had US strikes gone ahead. Any such attack would have triggered international outrage while handing Tehran a propaganda victory.
It is undeniable that Trump’s actions so far have weakened Iran, but it is equally true that the regime knows where its strengths lie – and how to best utilise them. That it will not go down without a fight is abundantly clear when you see that even at this late stage, it hasn’t budged on Trump’s nuclear demands, nor ceding control over the Strait of Hormuz. It is hard to see how this current deadlock ends without the US committing troops to the ground or entering into a bloody showdown.
Which brings us to option two: Trump finds an off ramp and claims victory.
Donald Trump is discussing military action with aides as he calls the ceasefire with Iran ‘weak’ (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)It is reasonable to assume that this is the most attractive option for the mercurial President. His escalating threats and rhetoric pull Iran to the table and force a deal that is largely beneficial to the White House. It is, in a sense, classic Art of the Deal brinksmanship stuff.
What’s harder to imagine is how both sides actually get there. From Tehran’s perspective, Trump has effectively thrown his best punch and it is still standing. The longer this conflict goes on, the harder it becomes diplomatically for Trump. His traditional allies are already backing away from the US and want no part of the fallout. Neither can Trump rely on his apparent great friendships with Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, both of whom have deep and lasting ties to Iran, having bonded over their mutual disdain for the US-led West.
There is a third option, which is the continuation of the status quo. We all know the acronym Taco: Trump Always Chickens Out. In the past few weeks, Wall Street traders have replaced this with Nacho: Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
The longer that goes on, the more soft power and international goodwill America throws away. Every Trump tantrum will be viewed less seriously by allies and adversaries alike. Energy prices will remain high, causing inflation and making people poorer, for which they will no doubt blame the US. Trump’s erratic behaviour will become baked into international diplomacy, as countries find ways to move beyond a US-led world order.
Trump’s failures in Iran have left the world in a considerably more dangerous and unstable place. He has proven that nations he deems weaker than America can still hold the US President over a barrel and leave the leader of the free world with no good options. For a man so obsessed with winning peace prizes and being remembered as a global saviour, it is beyond desperate that he doesn’t understand the damage he is causing.
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