Nigel Farage thinks he is anti-Establishment. I have news for him ...Middle East

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Nigel Farage thinks he is anti-Establishment. I have news for him

This wasn’t an election in the traditional sense of the word. It was an arson attack. On the whole system. This wasn’t a delicate decision – between crisp flavours or pub specials. This was the moment the tablecloth was pulled from the bench, leaving the crockery crashing to the ground, smashed up pieces of what used to be our fairly robust political hardware.

It turns out that if you ask people across the country what’s wrong with their lives, they tell you. Big time. And the list is long. Moreover they will tell you they blame anyone who is in power, who has been in power. Who has been close to power. There is now no dirtier word in the English language than “Establishment”. Fairly or unfairly it has been stretched to accommodate the old rules of politics, new scandals, corruption, Jimmy Savile, nepotism, education, experience and the centre ground. It is a word that political neophytes and populists will swing around like an axe. Trying to remove themselves from the arc of its blows.

    This week, the electorate have come in larger numbers than at last year’s local elections to punish the party of government – as well as the Conservatives who had previously been there for so long. They sought out the newcomers and the outsiders – or more accurately those who could pretend they were. They voted for the devil they didn’t know, over the one they did. Believing, essentially, that a “burn it down” approach to politics would get more done than any traditional party endorsement.

    Today marked the obituary – More in Common’s Luke Tryl declared – of the two-party system. As he sat in our studio this lunchtime I glanced down to see his customary odd socks. One red, one blue, now looking like an anachronism of a gentler time. As Labour and Conservative leaders came before the cameras today they could do little more than acknowledge the pain these results have caused their councillors and foot soldiers.

    They have had to recognise the freight train that is Reform UK barging through red and blue “safe areas” with the high-octane abandon of a seaside stag do. They have turned Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform turquoise. They’ve taken their first London borough, Havering, from the Conservatives – wiping them out of the council entirely. And in the North West the Labour heartlands of Wigan and Tameside have turned their back on Labour.

    In Wales, Labour’s leader has lost her seat. In Scotland, Labour’s backwards progress will keep the SNP in power, with the threat of a looming referendum to boot.

    Keir Starmer’s party has lost votes to Reform, Plaid, the SNP and the Greens.

    But curiously, this political anarchy may make his own position less vulnerable.

    For now at least. He has resisted calls to go, and insisted he will fight the next election as the Prime Minister. And whatever the Cabinet are thinking privately, they appear to acknowledge that the change of personnel may not be the answer to what is essentially a break down of trust in an entire system. If no one likes you because you’re in power. Then the problem is not a personal one. It’s utterly, depressingly systemic.

    But there’s another reason why Starmer may not budge. And it’s for entirely practical reasons. When Liz Truss took over from Boris Johnson, Starmer and Labour repeatedly called for a general election. Their message – like their moral high ground – had clarity. They argued the Conservatives no longer had a democratic mandate because the public had voted for the Tory party under Johnson in 2019, not Truss.

    After her mini-Budget those calls got even louder – and with her resignation the demand for a general election was deafening.

    If Starmer repeats that process, that line will be played on a loop by all party leaders – declared a hypocrite and hounded until Labour takes the country to the polls. Or risks further loss of trust. Does a party that has only ever put four other leaders into power in an election really want to take that risk? Particularly in a new world of five-party politics where a general election could be won on a mere 25 per cent share of the national vote?

    Starmer knows he’s unpopular. But he may just try and wait it out. The Reform tally looks impressive – but behind the headlines there is a more curious pattern at work.

    Peter Kellner, the doyen of polling and former YouGov CEO, observes that the 41 per cent share of the English seats they scored in May last year had slipped back to 33 per cent this year. He thinks that party may have peaked.

    So here’s an idea. Instead of defenestration, why not let people discover what many know deep down: that Reform and Farage have been part of British politics for years. Farage has been at this game for longer than Kemi, Keir and Davey put together. He’s not anti-establishment. He is the establishment. Changing a name and a party colour doesn’t change the facts.

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