California Republicans who flipped seats in 2024 are fighting to keep them ...Middle East

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By Yue Stella Yu, CalMatters

In 2024, California Republicans flipped three legislative seats amid a nationwide rightward shift that helped elect President Donald Trump. 

Now, they must play defense.

Two of the seats they flipped in the state Assembly are up for reelection. Republicans are also fending off challenges in a few other purple districts. 

Defending their seats will be a tall task: The president’s party almost always loses in downballot races during the midterms, and Trump’s approval rating has slipped.

Democratic challengers in those hot races are bashing GOP incumbents for failing to defend Californians from Trump’s actions. 

“California Republicans have spent a decade wrapping their arms around Donald Trump, so they can’t run away from the president’s record,” said California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks. 

For embattled Republicans, it’ll be crucial to keep Trump at arm’s length, GOP consultants and local party chairs agree. 

Assembly District 58

The dynamic is playing out in the rematch between Assemblymember Leticia Castillo, a Corona Republican, and Clarissa Cervantes, a Democrat and Riverside city councilmember who lost to Castillo by fewer than 600 votes in 2024. Republicans slammed Cervantes for her two drunk driving convictions, and Castillo won despite being heavily outspent: Her campaign raised just $78,000 compared to Cervantes’ $1 million.

This time, Cervantes, whose sister Sen. Sabrina Cervantes previously held this seat, is banking on voters who’ve grown frustrated with the high cost of living Trump promised to bring down. In a CalMatters interview, she pointed to the war in Iran that has sent gas prices skyrocketing, saying Castillo is complacent about Trump’s policies. Castillo has focused on “conspiracy theories and culture wars,” Cervantes argued, referring to a bill the Republican authored to keep transgender women out of locker rooms and restrooms.

“She’s not getting anything done for us,” Cervantes said.

Castillo did not make herself available to CalMatters for this story. In an early April interview, she blamed high gas prices on California regulations, which she said drove up refinery closures. 

Still, Castillo tried to separate herself from Trump. “I get people just want to continue to say, ‘Trump, Trump, Trump.’ At the end of the day, we’re in California, and Trump doesn’t rule here.”

Assembly District 36

Further inland, GOP Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez of Coachella, who shocked Capitol watchers by flipping the left-leaning Latino-majority district in 2024, faces three Democrats: Indio City Councilmember Oscar Ortiz, former El Centro Mayor Tomás Oliva, and Imperial City Councilmember Ida Obeso-Martinez.

None of the Democrats secured a party endorsement.

Gonzalez, a former Marine who joined the bipartisan legislative Problem Solvers Caucus that pledges to “put people over party,” has had to walk a fine line on immigration. He sought to justify Trump’s deployment of troops in Los Angeles last year as “stepping up.” He also signed a caucus letter to Congress last year advocating for a path for legal status for undocumented immigrants. 

That did not stop Democratic challengers from linking him to Trump’s immigration enforcement. “We … see him staying silent on some of the toughest issues that we have in our community,” Ortiz said. “Our children are rotting away in prison cells at the moment, and he doesn’t seem to be bothered by it.”

Gonzalez declined a CalMatters interview request, but said in a statement that he’s “focused on real results” and blamed both parties for using immigration as “a political chess piece.” 

“Our district made it clear they were tired of the status quo and wanted real change when it comes to leadership, and I have kept my promise to deliver just that,” he said.

Here are some other competitive legislative races we’re watching.

Vulnerable Republicans

AD 7

In this northeastern Sacramento County district, Republican incumbent Josh Hoover unseated then-Democratic Assemblymember Ken Cooley after the district shifted rightward in 2020. The district, which includes cities like Citrus Heights, Folsom and Rancho Cordova, has slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 2024, voters supported Kamala Harris for president but re-elected Hoover by 7%.

Candidates: Josh Hoover [R] – incumbent Republican; Amy Slavensky [D] – former Amador County USD superintendent; Vance Taylor [D] – chief of the Office of Access and Functional Needs at CalOES

AD47

This district, which includes both deep-blue Palm Springs and its conservative outskirts, is a target for Democrats. Republican incumbent Greg Wallis won by 85 votes in 2022, becoming the only Republican that year to win a legislative district that voted for Newsom. Wallis held onto his seat in 2024 even though the district voted Democratic in statewide contests. 

Candidates: Jason Byors [D] – computer programmer; Leila Namvar [D] – former local labor leader and city planner; Greg Wallis [R] – incumbent

AD74

This district contains Republican-leaning stretches of Orange and San Diego counties and liberal parts of San Diego County. While registered Republicans slightly outnumber Democrats, voters picked former President Joe Biden by 6.2% in 2020 and Harris by 1.9% in 2024. Republican incumbent Laurie Davies, who is seeking re-election, fended off a Democratic challenge by 1.7% in 2024.

Candidates: Laurie Davies [R] – incumbent; Sergio Farias [D] – former mayor and current councilmember of San Juan Capistrano

Vulnerable Democrats

SD 38

Republicans are seeking to unseat State Sen. Catherine Blakespear, an Encinitas Democrat who won the coastal seat by less than 5% in 2022. The district north of San Diego has historically been a toss-up, but has swung Democratic in recent years. Coastal development and preservation are a huge topic in this race.

Candidates: Laura Bassett [R] – professional fiduciary; Catherine Blakespear [D] – incumbent

Competitive open seats

SD 10

A crowd of Democrats in this South Bay Area-based district are seeking to succeed Sen. Aisha Wahab, a Fremont Democrat who is running for Congress. 

Candidates:

David Cohen [D] – San Jose city councilmember; Raymond Liu [D] – Fremont city councilmember; Carmen Montano [D] – mayor of Milpitas; Scott Sakakihara [D] – Union City councilmember

SD 14

This Central Valley district, which includes Fresno, Merced and other agriculture-dependent cities, has trended rightward in recent years and is a top GOP target. Still, Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria is considered the frontrunner.

Candidates:

Darin DuPont [R] – Merced city councilmember; Esmeralda Hurtado [D] – Sanger city councilmember; Esmeralda Soria [D] – State assemblymember

SD 24

In this heavily Democratic Southern California district covering cities including Malibu and Santa Monica, a mad dash is on to replace Sen. Ben Allen, who is running for insurance commissioner. Wildfire and homeowner insurance are hot topics in this district heavily impacted by the fires last year. 

Candidates:

Eric Alegria [D] – Palos Verdes Peninsula Unified School Board member; John Erickson [D] -West Hollywood city councilmember; Ellen Evans [D] – Bel Air-Beverly Crest Neighborhood Council member; Brian Goldsmith [D] – former Democratic Majority for Israel senior advisor; Michael Newhouse [D] – small businessperson; Sion Roy [D] – physician; Zennon Ulyate-Crow [D] – nonprofit executive director; Kristina Irwin [R] – Real estate agent; Glenn Marshall [R] – director at the California Taxpayers Action Network

SD 26

This is yet another deep-blue seat up for grabs after Sen. Maria Elena Durazo terms out at the end of the year. It includes several immigrant enclaves in downtown Los Angeles and the city of Vernon.

Candidates:

Juan Camacho [D] – Equality California Institute Board president; Wendy Carrillo [D] – former assemblymember and healthcare advocate; Sara Hernandez [D] – president of the L.A. Community College District Board of Trustees; Maebe Pudlo [D] – Silver Lake Neighborhood councilmember; Sarah Rascón [D] – Los Angeles Area Planning commissioner

SD 40 

This Inland San Diego County-based purple district is a top Democratic target, as Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, a moderate Republican from San Diego, terms out at the end of 2026. The district leans Republican but has become more Democratic over the years. Republicans are split on Jones’ successor: A San Marcos city councilmember Jones endorsed or a far-right firebrand. 

Candidates:

Kristie Bruce-Lane [R] – two-time candidate for state Assembly; Mara Elliott [D] – former San Diego city attorney; Ed Musgrove [R] – San Marcos city councilmember

AD 12

This Marin County district is a safe Democratic stronghold, and a five-way Democratic primary is on to succeed Assemblymember Damon Connolly, who is running for state Senate. No Democrat secured a party endorsement. 

Candidates:

Eli Beckman [D] – Corte Madera mayor; Eryn Cervantes [R]  – corrections official; Jackie Elward [D]  – Rohnert Park councilmember; Eric Lucan [D]  – Marin County supervisor; Steve Schwartz [D]  – nonprofit executive and farmer; Holli Thier [D]  – Tiburon councilmember

AD 27

This Central Valley seat being vacated by Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, who is running for Senate, is a top target for Republicans. The Latino-majority district has more registered Democrats than Republicans but voted for Trump in 2024 after favoring Biden in 2020. 

Candidates:

Mike Murphy [D] – former Merced mayor; Brian Pacheco [D] – Fresno County supervisor; Japjeet Singh Uppal [D] – Livingston councilmember

AD 35

The Kern County-based Latino-majority district, vacated by Democratic Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, who is running for Congress, has also swung rightward: Harris won it by just 0.3% in 2024, whereas Biden carried it by 21% in 2020. There are nearly twice as many registered Democrats than Republicans.

Candidates:

Saul Ayon [R] – McFarland mayor; Andrae Gonzales [D] – Bakersfield city councilmember; Ana Palacio [D] – Emergency room nurse

AD 65

This deep-blue open seat to succeed Assemblymember Mike Gipson, a Gardena Democrat who is termed out, has attracted a flurry of Democratic candidates. Some of the state’s most powerful Democratic groups are split: Compton Unified School District trustee Ayanna Davis is endorsed by the state Democratic Party and several major labor unions, whereas Fatima Iqbal-Zubair, chair of the California Progressive Caucus, is backed by SEIU California and the California Teachers Union.

Candidates:

Eugene Allen [D] – medical doctor; Ayanna Davis [D] – Compton Unified School District trustee; Fatima Iqbal-Zubair [D] – chair of California Progressive Caucus; Lamar Lyons [D] – San Pedro Central Neighborhood Council president; Magali Sanchez-Hall [D] – project manager at UCLA

CalMatters is a nonpartisan and nonprofit news organization bringing Californians stories that probe, explain and explore solutions to quality of life issues while holding our leaders accountable.

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