Starmer’s leadership rivals are circling. These are the hurdles they’d face to oust him ...Middle East

Rarely are the stakes this high when voters head to the polls in UK local elections.

If Friday’s results are as difficult for the Labour Party as projections suggest, Sir Keir Starmer could face a fresh wave of calls to resign from his own MPs – and even ministers.

Speculation over whether the Prime Minister has enough political capital to carry on has been swirling around Westminister for weeks.

But the one thing that has protected him so far is the paralysis his three main rivals have faced when it comes to staging a challenge.

Based on conversations with a range of political sources, The i Paper has analysed the hurdles Starmer’s three main rivals would have to overcome in order to launch a leadership bid – and can reveal what one candidate in particular might want in return for remaining loyal.

Wes Streeting

Health Secretary Wes Streeting is widely believe to have put in the groundwork to get enough MPs to back him if he were to enter the race to be the next Labour leader at any time.

The MP for Ilford North has long been considered a frontrunner to take over due to the breadth of the support he can command, his political instincts and strong communication style.

But as the soft-left arm of the party seems to be growing in influence, a traditionally more right wing Labour candidate like Streeting is seeing his prospects diminishing.

He was also professionally close to Peter Mandelson before he was sacked as US ambassador, an association which could harm his standing among the wider Labour membership.

Sources close to Streeting have dismissed claims that he has secured the backing of enough MPs to launch a formal challenge at any time, saying: “Wes has said repeatedly, including in several interviews last week that he supports the PM and isn’t preparing to challenge him.”

And he is understood to be spending much of this week campaigning in Redbridge, his local council in East London.

It was here that a pro-Gaza independent candidate came close to kicking him out of the Commons at the last general election.

If Labour can hold off the challenge from a group of similar independents in these elections, it may help Streeting answer the claim sometimes made by his rivals that his own position in Parliament is too shaky for him to take over as leader.

Angela Rayner

The former Deputy Prime Minister has been the subject of a tax probe by HMRC after she was forced to step down from her Cabinet position for failing to pay the correct amount of stamp duty on an £800,000 seaside property in Hove.

A source close to Rayner told The i Paper she did not know when the investigation would conclude – but earlier reporting has suggested it is close to a resolution.

Without a clean slate, it is hard to see how Rayner could either stand for leader or make a return to the Cabinet.

If Starmer formally offered her a Cabinet position to win her loyalty, Rayner is expected to put forward her own conditions for accepting any position.

She has, for example, been looking at policy papers being circulated by MPs calling on the Labour leadership to change course to see off the rise of populists on the left and right.

Both the soft left Tribune Group and the centrist Labour Growth Group (LGG) are due to present Starmer with bolder policy proposals to take forward in the aftermath of what is expected to be a dire set of election results.

The Tribune proposals will be published as a set of essays next week, while the LGG is due to publish a report, currently under the working title “An Honest Day”.

The report is likely to call for changes to taxation, so that it focuses more on taxing land and resources, rather than work and enterprise, and to regulate markets to stimulate greater competition, not to protect incumbents.

Crucially, neither of the Labour factions have warned against attempting to reform the welfare system, with the LGG warning it now “traps, rather than liberates” people on benefits and that a new system should actively reward contribution.

Reports have emerged in recent days citing allies of Rayner calling on the former deputy leader to move against the Prime Minister after Thursday’s elections.

But there is also skepticism among MPs and insiders as to whether Rayner actually wants the top job or would be happy with an influential Cabinet role. Some have suggested that she could form a joint ticket with Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham.

Andy Burnham

Burnham has made no secret of his desire to challenge Starmer but he cannot do so unless he is a member of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) – in other words, an MP.

He attempted to return to Parliament earlier this year and wanted to become the Labour candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election but was blocked from doing so by the party’s ruling body, which has so far been loyal to Starmer.

A Labour insider claimed that Burnham was now laying the groundwork for a leadership bid more methodically than his rushed and unsuccessful attempt to stand in the by-election.

They said those around Burnham were aware that they had not successfully done the groundwork in winning over the party’s National Executive Committee before declaring his intentions.

“His team are very open that they didn’t do the work before Gorton, and they are now,” they told The i Paper said.

Reports over the weekend suggested Burnham had successfully convinced them not to stand in his way should he make a second attempt, but his own team dismissed the claims as “gossip”.

A return to Westminster could open him up to criticism from Manchester residents for abandoning his position as Mayor – and putting political ambition first.

Several Labour MPs have suggested that talk of a Rayner-Burnham leadership pact is overblown, after he was photographed visiting Rayner’s constituency home in Ashton-under-Lyne last month. One Manchester Labour MP said: “I think they’re just good Manc mates.”

A pro-Burnham Labour MP said: “There is a lot of scuttlebutt going around. Much of it fevered speculation and wishful thinking. Pacts need two sides to agree on something. Talking isn’t a pact.”

However, the MP said that “a setting out of positions” may have taken place between the pair.

A Labour insider said they believed MPs had built Burnham up as a “dreamy and perfect” candidate, precisely because he was not currently available. “People can unite around Andy because he’s not here,” they said.

With MPs divided over who should take over if the PM were forced out, and fears over whether a change in leader could spook the bond markets, it is impossible to predict whether Starmer will stay in post. Nevertheless, he is about to face his toughest week in politics.

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