It’s an all Premier League clash in this UEFA Europa League semi-final. We look ahead to Thursday’s first leg at the City Ground with our Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has struggled to predict Thursday’s first leg, with Aston Villa just edging it by beating Nottingham Forest across 39% of pre-match simulations. This will be the first all-English European semi-final since Arsenal faced Manchester United in the 2008-09 UEFA Champions League last four. Unai Emery has advanced from his last five UEFA Europa League semi-finals as a manager.It’s an all Premier League affair in this UEFA Europa League semi-final as Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa prepare to face off in the first leg at the City Ground on Thursday.
Last season’s final had two English teams on show as Tottenham overcame Manchester United, and there will be another Premier League representative this year in Istanbul, but will it be Vitor Pereira’s men or the team led by the competition’s most successful manager Unai Emery who will make it?
This will be the first major European semi-final between two English teams since the 2008-09 UEFA Champions League when Arsenal faced Man Utd, which the Red Devils won 4-1 on aggregate.
Forest impressively overcame FC Porto in the quarter-finals to book their fourth major European semi-final, and their first since the 1983-84 UEFA Cup where they lost 3-2 on aggregate to Anderlecht.
Villa eased past Bologna in the last eight, making it to their second major European semi in three seasons, having lost 6-2 on aggregate to Olympiakos in the 2023-24 Conference League.
Emery has won the competition four times (three with Sevilla, one with Villarreal) and has had great success this season so far. Villa have won 11 Europa League matches in 2025-26 – only Porto in 2010-11 (12), Atlético Madrid in 2011-12 (13) and Chelsea in 2018-19 (12) have won more in a single season. That includes winning their last nine in a row – the only English team to win 10 consecutively in major European football is Manchester City between May 2023 and March 2024.
This will be Emery’s seventh Europa League semi-final (since 2009-10) – no other manager has been in more than three. While he lost his first one in 2011-12 with Valencia, the Spaniard has reached the final in each of his last five, with Sevilla (2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16), Arsenal (2018-19) and Villarreal (2020-21).
Emery said at his press conference on Wednesday that he is expecting an “intelligent match” from his opponents.
“They are different, and I expect it to be a long match,” he told reporters. “Why? Because they are performing really well and are now playing with confidence. It is really impressive. They have scored four or five goals in the [recent] matches they have played.
“In the Europa League, the way they are playing is very competitive. In the last two rounds against Porto and Midtjylland, they competed fantastically, even with tight results.
“I expect a difficult match and a very intelligent match. We must play intelligently and try to enjoy it too.”
As Emery alluded to, Forest come into the game in fine form, having thrashed Sunderland 5-0 at the Stadium of Light last Friday. Pereira’s side aren’t quite out of the woods yet in the Premier League relegation battle, but they have won their last three in all competitions, scoring 10 goals.
Villa lost their last game 1-0 at Fulham but are still handily-placed to secure a top-five spot in the Premier League, which would guarantee Champions League qualification for next season.
They also have recent experience of playing at the City Ground. These two drew 1-1 in the Premier League earlier this month, with a Murillo own goal cancelled out by Neco Williams.
In order to find the net on away soil on Thursday, Villa may be reliant on in-form Ollie Watkins, who has been involved in a goal in each of his last four Europa League matches (four goals, one assist). Wayne Rooney is the only Englishman to score or assist in more consecutive appearances (since 2009-10), doing so in seven in a row between February 2012 and November 2016 for Man Utd.
Forest have been in the goals recently, and will hope the creativity of Callum Hudson-Odoi can help them to fashion plenty of chances in this one. The former Chelsea winger is yet to register an assist in the Europa League this season, but only three players have created more chances in the competition than his 23.
As for team news, Murillo will not be ready to return for Forest after he limped off in the recent 4-1 win over Burnley, though Jair Cunha should be available despite coming off in the first half of the victory at Sunderland.
Amadou Onana is a doubt for Villa, with Emery saying the midfielder will be assessed again on Thursday. Boubacar Kamara is still sidelined with injury, while Ross Barkley is ineligible.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last four home games against Aston Villa, all in the Premier League (W2 D2).
As mentioned, they drew 1-1 earlier this month at the City Ground, while Villa last won there in March 2019 in the Championship under Dean Smith.
Villa did beat Forest 3-1 at Villa Park on 3 January, with Watkins and John McGinn (2) scoring the goals for the hosts. Morgan Gibbs-White found the net for the visitors.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer found it hard to separate these two, but has given Aston Villa the edge in this first leg.
The visitors were victorious in 39% of pre-match simulations, with Nottingham Forest winning 35%. The remaining 26% ended as a draw, which was the outcome when they met in the Premier League recently and would leave the tie finely poised ahead of the return leg at Villa Park next week.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Nottingham Forest: Stefan Ortega, Ola Aina, Nikola Milenkovic, Morato, Neco Williams, Ibrahim Sangaré, Nicolás Domínguez, Morgan Gibbs-White, Omari Hutchinson, Dan Ndoye, Chris Wood.
Head coach: Vitor Pereira
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Lucas Digne, Youri Tielemans, Lamare Bogarde, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction: Will Unai Emery Produce More Europa League Magic in All-English Semi-Final? Opta Analyst.
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