Sir Keir Starmer is in too weak a position to try and stage a major Cabinet reshuffle in the wake of next week’s local election results, senior Labour figures have warned.
Speculation is mounting that the Prime Minister may try and shake up his top team following what is expected to be a damaging day at the ballot box in a bid to assert some authority over his fractious party.
Starmer is understood to want to try and find a way to bring back Angela Rayner into his Cabinet in an attempt to see off a potential leadership challenge, but sources insist that no formal offer has been made to the former deputy prime minister, despite reports to the contrary.
The Prime Minister’s apparent eagerness to find a role for Rayner, who is expected to resolve her tax dispute with HMRC imminently, is being viewed by some within the party as a sign of the power she now wields.
Starmer’s top team undecided about reshuffle
A Labour insider told The i Paper: “Right now, she is the kingmaker.”
The source said that “all the chatter” is around the possibility that Starmer may carry out a reshuffle, with the expectation that soft left MPs, such as former transport secretary Louis Haigh and Rayner would be offered jobs. However, they added it would come down to “whether soft left figures want to participate in that”.
It raises the question of whether Rayner would want a return to Cabinet, and in what position, or whether she felt she had more influence outside, particularly if she disagreed with the direction of the Government.
Her interventions since her resignation have been to shore up the legislation favoured by the left of the party, and which she championed in Government, such as the worker’s rights bill. Her renters rights legislation comes into force on Friday.
Downing Street insiders are reported to be undecided as to whether to hold a reshuffle in the immediate aftermath of the Scottish, Welsh and local elections in England, particularly as results will still be landing throughout next weekend.
But senior Labour MPs have warned any such attempt to overhaul his Cabinet would be too risky at a time when speculation is rife that a leadership challenge could follow the elections, which are expected to see Labour lose thousands of council seats.
One source described the idea as “mental”. “He’s not exactly at a high point of his powers is he?” the MP said.
Highlighting the danger associated with such a move, the MP added: “You’d make maybe 12 people happy and piss off hundreds – even more – while they watch their councils dissolve around them.
“I mean I am not one that is leaned on for advice by the galaxy brains [in No 10], but it would be a monumentally risky and stupid thing to do.”
Another Labour backbencher echoed the comments, saying: “I just don’t see how Keir will have the authority to reshuffle after the results we’re expecting.
“What happens if someone digs in and refuses to go? It all falls apart quite quickly.”
Where would Rayner fit in Cabinet?
Several sources suggested that should the Prime Minister decide to go ahead with a reshuffle, he would be expected to demote several of those on the right of the party to appease his backbenchers.
Cabinet ministers such as Liz Kendall and Peter Kyle were seen as vulnerable because the Labour right were not the “political stakeholders” in the party whom Starmer has to win over, one source said.
Another MP added: “The names that keep coming up as being likely to be demoted are Liz [Kendall] and Peter [Kyle]. Neither is considered to have been particularly effective and they don’t have deep support from within the PLP [parliamentary Labour Party].”
The MP highlighted how fraught with difficulty it would be to bring Rayner back in from the cold, as it could require Starmer to oust his own allies from within the Cabinet.
“The question is if you bring Angela back, where do you put her? I can’t see her fitting anywhere as well as her old department and it is clearly a policy area she is passionate about,” the source said.
Rayner’s successor as deputy leader, Lucy Powell, who is a close ally of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, is another being tipped with a return, although sources close to Powell insisted she has not been formally approached and was focused on the forthcoming elections.
No 10 is expected to pivot its political messaging in the wake of next week’s elections with a greater focus on people’s everyday lives and their wallets in an attempt to kick-start Starmer’s premiership.
It comes as Burnham used an interview with Bloomberg to fire another warning shot at the Prime Minister, insisting that the election results next week must be a “moment of reflection”, and that the aftermath should result in the Government moving “on a different course”.
He also opened the door to staging another attempt to make a return to Westminster.
“I can’t remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back,” he said, before adding: “I’m not ruling it out.”
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