Trump has survived three assassination attempts. What happens if he dies? ...Middle East

The third attempt on Donald Trump’s life on Saturday has raised fears the US President could be assassinated before the end of his term in 2028, sparking political turmoil, global instability and further violence.

If a president is killed, the line of succession states that power is automatically transferred to his vice president, in this case, JD Vance.

But Vance and other top officials were at the same Washington Hilton dinner where a gunman opened fire, leading to calls for the President to “reconsider” attending the same events as his No 2.

Should both be killed, the presidency would enter uncharted territory – and could pass to a Democrat, a 92-year-old Senator or an unlikely Cabinet minister.

JD Vance would become President

Had the President been killed at the White House correspondents’ dinner, Vance would have automatically assumed the presidency, even before taking the oath.

Vance was rushed from the stage by Secret Service agents on Saturday night and taken to a secure location. Professor Andrew Rudalevige, of Bowdoin College in the US, noted that Trump and Vance were evacuated in different directions, potentially to reduce the risk of both being harmed.

Republican Congressman Michael McCaul said the White House must “reconsider” having Vance and Trump at the same events to avoid them both being killed in a mass casualty event such as a terrorist bombing.

Some Secret Service officials have been reluctant to have the Vice President and the President attend events together off the White House grounds, CNN reported.

David Andersen, a professor of US politics at Durham University, said a reduction in joint appearances would be a “sensible solution to protecting the administration”.

“Traditionally, presidents and vice presidents are not often at the same events very often, both for security reasons and also because it is a waste of political capital,” he said. “If the president is in the room, nobody much cares about the vice president. It is more efficient to have him at an event somewhere else, where he can be the centre of attention.”

White House officials are convening a meeting to “discuss protocol and practices for major events” this week amid calls for security to be tightened at political gatherings and events like this summer’s World Cup, where McCaul warned drones could be a threat.

The transfer of power from President to Vice President has happened eight times in American history. Four US Presidents have been assassinated – John F Kennedy, William McKinley, James Garfield and Abraham Lincoln – and a further four have died of illness while in office, with their Vice Presidents automatically assuming power.

Lyndon B Johnson was sworn in as President while on board Air Force One, just over two hours after the 1963 assassination of JFK, with First Lady Jackie Kennedy present and still wearing clothes covered in her husband’s blood.

The chaos caused by a presidential assassination would be a ripe opportunity for America’s adversaries to advance, said Melanie Garson, an international security expert at UCL, and the US could face cyber attacks or disinformation campaigns from Russia, China and Iran.

There could also be an outbreak of international conflict, as hostile states use America’s distraction to launch military activity overseas, such as a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan.

White House could switch from red to blue

If Vance were killed alongside the President, power would transfer to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, currently Louisiana Congressman Mike Johnson.

But if November’s midterms see control of the House swing to the Democrats as predicted, the US could see an unprecedented “flip” in the presidency in which the new Commander-in-Chief was a Democrat – causing fury in the Maga ranks.

This a scenario would undoubtedly trigger “an enormous amount of controversy and conflict”, said Andersen.

“The newly ascended president would have the ability to remove all of the elected president’s Cabinet officials and appointees, completely nullifying their presidency and the will of the people in the prior election,” Andersen said.

“That is bound to be controversial for anyone who voted for the elected President. In the modern political environment, this would likely stoke outrage and the rapid spread of conspiracy theories about what happened to the recently deceased President and Vice President.”

While unlikely, there is a precedent for this. In the 1800s, when the Whig Party was the primary opposition to the Democrats, two separate elected presidents – William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor – chose to run on “fusion” tickets with former Democrats as their Vice President in order to win the election.

“Both died tragically – Harrison after giving the longest inaugural speech in American history in freezing weather and catching pneumonia, Taylor through suspected food poisoning – and their Vice Presidents ascended to the presidency and then rejected the Whig platform,” Andersen said.

“They dismissed their predecessor’s Cabinet and governed based upon their own political views and not the campaign’s promises. Neither ascended president was renominated for office, and both were one-term presidents with very little legacy, but left a sharply divided nation in their wake.”

One senior Congressional aide told The i Paper that “toxic politics” was the root cause of a string of violent episodes in US public life. “In the last 15 years we’ve seen members of Congress from both parties shot while taking part in official events and endured the trauma of January 6th,” they said.

“Things haven’t gotten better because we haven’t confronted the root issues. Instead of taking about changing our toxic politics, we’re talking about building a ballroom; that isn’t going to change a thing.”

A 92-year-old Senator could become president

McCaul pointed out that the first three people in the line of succession – the President, Vice President and Speaker – could all have been killed in Saturday’s event.

“Had an explosive device gone off, you would have knocked out the president, vice president, Speaker. The three in line of succession,” he told CNN.

Had this happened, power would automatically transfer to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, currently Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley. Pro tempore is a Latin for “for the time being”, with the role conceived as a temporary replacement for the Vice President, who typically presides over the Senate.

Since the mid-20th century, tradition dictates that the role is held by the senior member of the majority party. But this also means they are among the oldest. Grassley is 92 – 13 years older than Trump, whose age has been a source of concern.

“This is a largely ceremonial role, and means that the third in line for the presidency does not even have to be in a real leadership role in the Senate in order to become president,” Andersen said. “They simply have to have won reelection within their state for a long period of time.”

Randomly allocated Cabinet Minister could take presidency

After the Senate president, the role would fall to members of the US Cabinet in the order of their agencies’ creation.

First is the Secretary of State, followed by Treasury, Defence and the Attorney General. In total, there are 18 roles in the line of succession, ending with the Secretary of Homeland Security.

But at least 13 presidential successors – including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Defense Secretary Pete ​Hegseth – were also present at Saturday’s dinner.

After Grassley, the next successor not at the dinner was Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

After Rollins would be Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik, who was named repeatedly in the Epstein files. They revealed that Lutnik was still in touch with the notorious paedophile and alleged sex trafficker ten years after he claimed he had cut off contact with him. Lutnik has denied all wrongdoing.

To preserve the line of succession, one senior official is kept at a secure location away from large events like the State of Union address, in case of a large-scale attack killing the rest of the Cabinet – known as the “designated survivor”.

At this year’s address in February, the designated survivor was Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, who repeated the role during Trump’s last joint session of Congress in March 2025. This is the 17th Cabinet role in the line of succession.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the administration had discussed having a designated survivor for the Washington dinner, but there was no need.

“There were several members of the Cabinet in the line of succession ​who did not attend for various personal reasons. So designating one ​survivor was ⁠not necessary as we have several members who were not there already,” Leavitt said.

What is clear is that the threat to Trump’s life is at a high, and another such attack could rock the foundations of US democracy.

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