Kentucky Derby Odds: Renegade 4-1 Favorite, Draws Dreaded Rail .. US Racing ...Middle East

Brad Cox-trained Commandment, Further Ado both 6-1

Renegade finished first in New York, Florida, and Arkansas, and now he’s the lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite to come through again in the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 2.

The highly anticipated post-position draw was held Saturday at Churchill Downs, and Renegade drew the unfavorable post 1 in a full field of 20 3-year-olds.

The last Derby winner to break from post 1 was Ferdinand in 1986 – 39 years ago. Last year, Citizen Bull started from the rail and finished 15th; in 2024, Dornoch left the rail and ran 10th.

Renegade, the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher, will be ridden by top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., seeking his first victory in the Run for the Roses.

The biggest task facing Ortiz is getting off to a quick start and staying out of trouble as the field barrels into the first turn, edging inward to gain position. Renegade has a 5-2-2-1 record but finished first in his career debut at Aqueduct and was DQ’d. He also won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs prior to his Arkansas Derby victory.

Commandment, the Florida Derby (G1) winner, and Further Ado, the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner, are the co-second 6-1 morning-line choices. Both are trained by Brad Cox, who also sends out Fulleffort.

Commandment, a son of champion sire Into Mischief, as is Renegade, drew a favorable post 6 and will be ridden by Luis Saez. Further Ado, with three-time Derby winner John Velazquez, leaves from post 18, an outside position Cox was hoping for. Fulleffort, winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), drew the far outside post 20 in what will be his first race on the dirt.

“Very happy with that post (for Further Ado),’’ Cox said. “I wanted him to be outside. It looks like there’s speed inside of him, but ultimately, it’ll be up to Johnny. I think it’s a great draw.”

As for Commandment: “I like 6. Hopefully, he can break and go forward, maybe save ground on the first turn or the second turn.”

Wide open field, even with longshots galore

Chad Brown, who trains lightly raced Emerging Market (Flavien Prat, 15-1), says the field is as wide open as it has been in years.

“There’s clearly a couple of horses that sure are deserving favorites in the race, but there’s no, by no means, an American Pharoah in here, at least up to this point, going into the race,’’ said Brown, seeking his first Derby victory. “Now, whoever wins this race and goes on, maybe one emerges and turns into one of the best 3-year-olds in the last few years, who knows, but going into the race, it does look like there’s a bunch of ways to go.”

Emerging Market, for example, comes into the 1 ¼-mile Derby off two starts, a maiden win, and a victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Derby runners are 0-for-6 coming into the race off two career races.

Bet Baffert? Six-time Derby winner has longshots Potente, Litmus Test

Trainer Bob Baffert has a pair of longshots in his quest for a record-setting seventh Derby win – San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Potente (20-1, post 14) and Litmus Test (30-1, post 4), who moved into the field earlier in the day after Chip Honcho was withdrawn from consideration.

Mott vs. Mott

The father-son Bill Mott-Riley Mott showdown is set, too: Bill’s Chief Wallabee is 8-1 on the morning line, leaving from post 12 under Junior Alvarado; Riley’s Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt (20-1) drew the 11 post, and Wood Memorial (G2) winner Albus (30-1) leaves from post 2.

“I don’t know him right now,’’ Riley Mott quipped after the draw. “He’s become our competition, very formidable obviously. But we’re just focused on our horses and controlling the things we can control, unlike the draw.”

Bill Mott won the Derby last year with Sovereignty and will try to become the first trainer to win the race two years in a row since Baffert in 1997-1998.

Post 5 has produced the most Derby winners

The No. 5 post has produced 10 Derby winners, the most of any post position. Right to Party (30-1), trained by Kenny McPeek, drew gate 5. The 8 and 9 posts have fared well, too, with nine winners each. 

The most unfavorable post is 17, which has yet to produce a winner: Six Speed (50-1), runner-up in the UAE Derby (G2) and invitee via the Euro-Mideast Road to the Derby, leaves from post 17.

Four also-eligibles are listed: Great White, Ocelli, Robusta, and Corona de Oro. Great White would be the first one to move into the field if a scratch occurs during Derby week.

The field for the $5 million Kentucky Derby, from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

Last Updated on 04/25/2026

Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.

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