By Tamara Hardingham-Gill, CNN
(CNN) — After deciding to cancel her June trip with friends to Dubai when the emirate became the target of Iranian strikes, Lorna Davis was determined to find a new summer vacation elsewhere for the group.
Davis, who lives in London, began looking into fares for alternative breaks in destinations such as the Maldives, Mauritius and Bali. But she was stunned when she saw how expensive the flights were.
“Prices have gone up…” Davis tells CNN Travel. “At this moment, prices are so high.”
Undeterred, she reasoned that options closer to home would be cheaper, and researched vacations to Greece, but Davis found that even here, the prices were higher than usual, and continuing to go up.
“I’ve been looking all day to try to book something before they hike again.”
As summer gets closer, Davis says that fares keep getting higher and she’s running out of feasible options.
“I’m not sure what is going to happen now,” she adds, stressing that she’s “still trying” but getting increasingly disheartened.
Nearly two months after the United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran, the conflict is having a significant impact on the travel industry, and millions of travelers like Davis are facing uncertainty about the summer escape they’ve been looking forward to all year.
Air ticket prices have been rising as the war causes disruption to fuel supplies and forces up airline running costs. Many carriers are now canceling services no longer deemed profitable.
The rising costs and uncertainty are forcing some to forgo long-haul trips in favor of closer and more affordable destinations. Even those planning self-drive vacations are having to rethink their summer as pump prices also continue to soar.
Soaring travel costs
“There’ll be higher fares, less capacity and less people traveling this summer than expected,” said Dan Akins, an economist from aviation consulting firm Flightpath Economics. “So, none of it is good for the travel industry.”
It’s no mystery why costs are increasing. With the Strait of Hormuz, the main conduit for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, closed to commercial traffic, supplies of jet fuel and gasoline have become disrupted.
Airlines in Europe and Asia, which are more dependent on jet fuel imports, have been hit particularly hard. And while the US is a leading exporter of jet fuel, it’s still at the mercy of price fluctuations. It’s a situation unlikely to ease quickly even if a deal is reached to reopen the Strait.
“Exposure to the largest energy disruption in history is going to mostly be conveyed in the US through pricing,” said Akins.
US carriers, he added, no longer protect themselves from market volatility by locking in prices months in advance. Many international airlines still do, but this offers no protection against shortages.
The situation is now so dire that on April 16, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, declared that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel.
Airspace closures around conflict zones are also having an effect with airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways rerouting flights and subsequently burning more fuel. Many direct routes from Europe to Asia are being forced through a narrow corridor over Georgia and Azerbaijan or onto longer southern paths.
Those travelers flying out for vacations on “lower priced, no-frills kinds of tickets” will be hit the hardest, says Akins, as the unanticipated extra costs to airlines get passed on to passengers.
Added charges
Virgin Atlantic has increased some ticket prices by nearly $500, as well as adding extra fuel surcharges to economy-class tickets. Australian flag carrier Qantas is cutting 5% of its domestic flights, and Cathay Pacific and United Airlines are also reducing flights.
Germany’s Lufthansa Group announced this week that it’s cutting 20,000 short-haul flights over the summer. Other airlines, including Delta, SAS, Air Canada, China Eastern Airlines and Sichuan Airlines have also reduced their schedules. Some are also increasing bag charges.
Booking site Expedia said it had seen travelers altering their behavior because of rising costs, with preferences moving away from popular or longer-haul destinations.
In the US, it says places like New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Honolulu are being substituted with Philadelphia, Palm Springs, Fort Lauderdale and Puerto Rico. Internationally, London, Paris and Rome are being switched to Dublin, Brussels and Belgium.
“With airfare under pressure, travelers who stay flexible, stay closer to home and look beyond the obvious destinations can still unlock meaningful savings without compromising the experience,” Melanie Fish, Expedia Group spokesperson, said in a statement.
US travel service Going has reported that searches to San Jose/San Francisco have increased by 101%. Interest in European destinations like Italy and Portugal were up 20% and 22% respectively, while the United Kingdom has dropped in popularity.
“With airfare unpredictability, the best strategy for travelers is leaning into destinations that are predictably affordable,” said Going travel expert Katy Nastro. “Florida, Mexico, and the Caribbean are, unsurprisingly, seeing the strongest deal activity this year.”
It’s not only those planning to jet off for their summer vacation who are feeling the strain. Soaring gasoline prices will also hit the road trips that are a mainstay of US summer vacations during a year when the country is celebrating its 250th anniversary, hosting soccer’s World Cup tournament and marking the 100th anniversary of its famous Route 66.
“So, you’ve got fewer people traveling by air and fewer people traveling by car, principally based on the cost of travel, either through a ticket or through the gas tank,” Akins said. “That means that this might be the year of staycation.”
Staycation summer?
This certainly seems to be the case in the UK, where family resort chain Butlins has reported a “significant” growth in “demand for staycations” over the summer, a move that CEO Jon Hendry Pickup feels has been “driven by the conflict.” Off-peak breaks are also up 40% year-on-year.
Interest in both domestic and international trips remains strong though. Skyscanner travel expert Laura Lindsay says that the global travel search engine had seen demand increase in March in comparison to last year.
“We’re seeing booking windows are generally shorter at the moment — which we’d expect as travelers are waiting closer to their actual departure date to book — so a week or less and two weeks have seen a good increase in search traffic,” Lindsay told CNN. She advised travelers looking ahead to “remain flexible, stay informed and follow travel advisories.”
“While disruption is understandably frustrating, safety remains the top priority, and airlines are adjusting schedules in response to evolving events,” she added.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian recently told investors that the airline had experienced five of its best sales days ever after the start of the war in Iran.
“They’re seeing what’s happening and thinking, ‘I’m going to go ahead and get my tickets now, if I have to cancel later, I’ll cancel later,’” said Nancy McGehee, professor of hospitality and tourism management at Virginia Tech.
“People are making their decisions now because they see that it’s going to be expensive.”
McGehee stressed the importance of travel insurance in uncertain times, including added cancel-for-any-reason premiums. “That’s a little more expensive,” she said. “But if you do get cold feet, it will cover your reimbursement if you decide you’re not going to travel.”
For travelers determined to go on international trips this summer, McGehee suggests avoiding layovers and instead opting for a direct flight where possible, as with flights being dropped, it may not be so simple to just catch the next one if you miss your connection.
‘Pack your patience’
US travelers have also recently faced long TSA lines, sometimes hours-long, due to a partial government shutdown. After a period of unpaid work, TSA agents are once again receiving paychecks, but officials have warned that the temporary funding solution won’t last.
“I like to say, pack your patience,” said McGehee, adding that from the moment they enter the airport, travelers will be “interacting with people and fellow travelers that have no control over what’s going on, and they’re just trying to do their absolute best.”
Some destinations are now off limits as a result of the Iran conflict. The US State Department’s current advisory for Middle Eastern destinations including Oman, Bahrain, Dubai and Qatar stands at level three: “reconsider travel.” The UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office advises against all but essential travel to the UAE and Bahrain, with caution urged in Oman.
Lydia Benatia from London has been planning a summer trip to Oman with her young family for months, but the current situation has put it in doubt.
“It’s made us quite uneasy about going on a holiday that we were really looking forward to,” Benatia tells CNN Travel. “We’re unsure if we’ll still be able to go.”
While she hasn’t canceled the trip, Benatia stresses that safety is a big concern, adding that she’s “keeping a close eye on developments” for now.
“We’re waiting to see what happens in the coming months before we make a final decision,” she says. “Our holiday provider has said they’ll give us more information closer to the time as to whether we can safely still travel or whether they will cancel.”
While many travelers may be facing disappointment and uncertainty in the summer months, Akins points out that the possibility of having “less people transiting highways and airports” in the coming months will potentially be a brutal blow to tourism-dependent economies.
“Less demand for air travel and retail gasoline affects hotels,” he said. “It affects local gas station owners. It affects restaurants. It affects all the sort of ancillary things that are kind of adjacent to summer travel.”
Akins warns the economic impact of the conflict could last for several years.
“We’ve never faced a supply shock like this,” he says of fuel shortages. “So this is a hard reality to face that doesn’t seem to be going away soon, and no-one really planned for it.”
CNN’s Avni Trivedi contributed to this article.
The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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