The UK could be in for a hot, dry summer as climate scientists predict an El Niño could emerge by as early as May this year.
The incoming pacific weather pattern, which some scientists are branding a ‘super El Niño’, is expected to supercharge extreme weather events and drive up global temperatures.
The impacts on the UK are less predictable than other parts of the world, but the El Niño could increase the likelihood of higher temperatures this summer.
What is the super El Niño?
The tropical pacific naturally transitions between two warm and cool weather patterns, known as El Niño and La Niña.
The cooler phase, La Niña, has been dominant since December 2024, however the warmer phase, El Niño is expected to emerge soon.
On Friday, the World Meteorological Organisation predicted El Niño would return as early as May–July this year.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
There are clues that this upcoming El Niño could be a particularly strong event, leading some to brand it a ‘super El Niño’.
El Niño is associated with higher global temperatures; 2024 is currently the world’s hottest year on record, which occurred during the last El Niño phase.
What is the impact on the UK?
Due to the UK’s distance from the Pacific, the impact of an El Niño is less predictable than in other parts of the world.
“El Niño takes place thousands of kilometres away from north‑west Europe, so its influence on UK weather is indirect. While there are sometimes links between El Niño events and European weather patterns, these are far from guaranteed,” the Met Office said.
Typically an El Niño brings warmer and drier conditions to the UK during summer. It also increases the likelihood of colder winters.
However, many other factors also influence the UK’s weather. Last summer is currently the UK’s hottest year on record, which occurred during a La Niña phase.
What to know when booking your summer holiday
An element of uncertainty is hanging over the summer holidays this year as jet fuel shortages lead airlines to cancel flights and increase prices.
Holidaymakers may also want to consider the potential impact of the El Niño when booking holidays for the rest of this year.
The UK and Europe are among the parts of the world least impacted by El Niño. However, recent years have shown that extreme heat is a factor holidaymakers should still be considering, particularly when booking summer holidays in the Mediterranean.
Among the popular holiday destinations that are likely to be most impacted by El Niño are South East Asia and Australia, which tend to be drier than normal. This can lead to extreme weather events such as drought and forest fires.
On the other side of the Pacific, countries in South America can experience much wetter weather, resulting in flooding.
While the UK won’t be as directly affected, we still experience the impact of extreme weather, for example through increased food prices.
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