The UK would struggle to defend the Falkland Islands if Donald Trump followed through on threats to withdraw American support for British sovereignty, analysts have warned.
Washington is said to be mulling a review of its supportive stance towards Britain’s claim over the Falklands, a British Overseas Territory in the south Atlantic Ocean, according to a report.
A leaked internal Pentagon email suggested the US could review its position on Britain’s claim in response to Keir Starmer’s refusal to support Trump’s war against Iran, according to Reuters..
Suspending Spain from Nato and reconsidering support for other European “imperial possessions” were also being floated by the White House as retaliation against states that have not supported the war, the report added.
Trump has repeatedly lambasted many of America’s allies during his time in office, which culminated earlier this year with threats to seize Greenland – a territory of fellow Nato member Denmark.
While the Falkland Islands are not directly covered by the Nato Article 5 collective defence clause – which only applies north of the Tropic of Cancer – losing American diplomatic support for UK sovereignty would represent a major blow for British security in the region.
View of Port Stanley, capital of the Falkland Islands, a British Overseas Territory (Photo by Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images)Downing Street today insisted that the Falkland Islands’ status would remain unchanged, with the Prime Minster’s spokesperson saying “sovereignty rests with the UK and the islanders’ right to self-determination is paramount”.
The Falklands, which lie 300 miles east of Argentina, are the subject of a sovereignty dispute with Buenos Aires, whose forces invaded the islands in 1982.
After 10 weeks and the loss of 649 Argentine military personnel, Argentina surrendered to British forces. However, despite failing to take them, the country still claims sovereignty over the islands, which it calls Las Malvinas.
Britain ‘could not protect Falklands from invasion’
Experts have told The i Paper that the Royal Navy would not be in anywhere near as strong a position to come to the Falklands’ aid if Argentina were to attempt another invasion.
The Royal Navy’s HMS Medway is permanently deployed to the south Atlantic, and the UK also maintains a permanent defence presence on the islands including four RAF Typhoons.
Dr Carlos Solar, senior research fellow in Latin American security at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “The RAF’s four Typhoon jet fighters and the Royal Navy’s HMS Medway are not there to wage war, but to patrol British interest at the scale of what is essentially needed.”
Family members wave banners and Union Jack flags as the Royal Navy’s aircraft carrier HMS Invincible returns to Portsmouth harbour after the Falklands war, in September 1982 (Photo: Bryn Colton/Getty Images)Britain would today be unable to win a conflict on the scale of the Falklands War, experts believe.
Dr Nicholas Westcott, professor of practice in diplomacy at SOAS, told The i Paper: “The UK has no capacity to mount an expedition of the kind we did in 1982.”
Britain’s readiness for war has increasingly been called into doubt by military leaders and experts, with many figures calling on the UK to urgently rearm in the face of growing global threats.
Defence policy consultant Toby Dickinson said Britain had not had the means to protect the islands alone for 30 years. “Defence through deterrence has always been the strategy to make the Falklands work. It would be to make the Argentinians think twice about having a go,” he said.
While the US did not directly intervene in the 1982 Falklands War, it provided diplomatic and logistical support to Britain during the conflict.
The loss of American backing for UK control of the islands would “complicate matters significantly” for British defence of the Falklands, Dr Benjamin Martill, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Edinburgh University, told The i Paper.
He said: “The UK arguably does not have the capabilities to mount a sustained military expedition in the south Atlantic, not least when its resources are stretched by the current war in Ukraine and with Iran.
“Britain has been running its military down for decades and new navel assets have been variously downgraded or delayed.”
A 2013 referendum asking Falkland Islanders if they supported their current status as British overseas subjects was overwhelmingly backed by 99 per cent of voters, with only three people rejecting it at the ballot box.
But successive Argentine governments have vowed that the Falklands will one day be incorporated into Argentina. President Javier Milei, who is ideologically close to Trump, has maintained this stance while saying the process would take “long-term negotiation”.
Argentine President Javier Milei at a ceremony to remember the 44th anniversary of the Falklands war on 2 April in Buenos Aires (Photo: Tomas Cuesta/ Getty Images)Would Argentina launch another military operation?
Dr Johanna Amaya-Panche, senior lecturer in international relations and politics, at Liverpool John Moore University, told The i Paper that reduced US support would “make it easier for Argentina to press its claim more assertively”.
“This could take the form of intensified legal action, broader regional coalition-building, and renewed efforts to frame the dispute as a decolonisation issue,” she explained.
However, she cautioned that Argentina would be unlikely to launch another military operation to seize the islands, as its armed forces lacked the resources and logistics required.
“Argentina is not capable of retaking the islands militarily, and there is no credible indication that it intends to try,” she said.
“Supportive or ambiguous signals from Washington could nonetheless reshape Argentina’s perception of opportunity. Under such conditions, the government of Javier Milei may adopt a more assertive diplomatic or legal strategy, seeking to internationalise the dispute and mobilise external support. This shift would likely operate at the level of rhetoric and diplomacy rather than military planning.”
Dr Solar added: “There is no real threat from Argentina attempting at another annexation. Recent governments in Buenos Aires have consistently steered away from taking a confrontational attitude towards the UK that could militarise the Falkland Islands issue. They have, however, kept their claim active through diplomatic channels where given their current affinity with the Trump administration can exert more influence against the UK’s position.”
A field artillery battery fires during a military exercise in 2007 at Mount Pleasant British base, Falklands (Photo: Daniel Garcia/AFP via Getty Images)Trump’s real tactic
Westcott said Trump’s threats were “fairly meaningless”, and that the UK government would likely ignore the White House’s noises on the matter.
“This is a very familiar Trump tactic,” he said. “Raise a newsworthy and controversial proposal to grab headlines, divert attention and gain some negotiating leverage for other purposes.”
Dr Martill added: “It isn’t clear that Trump will go through with the threat, however. It is very clearly an effort to hit the UK where it hurts, most likely to gain leverage on Nato support for Iran and force the UK into a humiliating dash to Washington with concessions on these areas.”
Dr Solar said that were the UK to lose US support over the Falklands, it would be indicative of the deteriorating “special relationship” at the “highest strategic level”.
He added: “Yet, at the operational level, security for the Falkland Islands is done solely by a British contingent of army, navy and air force troops and they do not rely on US or Nato partners to do so. Washington can support through military co-operation lead by the US Southern Command whose area of responsibility includes South America, however, the Falkland Islands are not officially part of their remit. Thus, the prime security actor over the past four decades has been the British defence and that is not subject to change even if the US pulls their diplomatic supports.”
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