This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.
Charles asks:
As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.
He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?
Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually. For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.
My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction. Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM. We may have considered three years was the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance. But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.
I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip. I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.
Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration. With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings. For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend. Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.
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