Kentucky Derby Contender: Pavlovian .. US Racing ...Middle East

A change in running style (closer to front-runner) and longer races has elevated Pavlovian into a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender. The California-bred trained by two-time Derby winner Doug O’Neill was 1-for-8 running in mostly sprints. In his last two races, the gray colt won the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby and was beaten by a head in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) to qualify to Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Contender: Pavlovian

Can a California-bred win the Kentucky Derby?

Four times it has happened in the 151 editions of the Derby. The popular California Chrome was the last to pull it off, winning not only the Derby but the Preakness Stakes (G1) before running fourth in the Belmont Stakes (G1) in a bid to sweep the Triple Crown.

In Derby 152, Pavlovian will give it a shot after the battle-tested colt finished second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 21 to pick up enough points to qualify for America’s greatest horse race.

Pavlovian a Surprise Derby Qualifier

The Derby will be his 11th career start – more than any other 3-year-old in the field – and his recent running style of gunning for the front has paid off. A maiden winner through his first eight starts, he showed he can run better near or on the lead. He nosed out Express Kid to win the Sunland Park Derby on Feb. 15, then was edged by Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby.

“This horse is learning a whole bunch. I mean, he’s still learning. He can do it all. He can come off the pace, win from the lead,’’ jockey Edwin Maldonado said after the Louisiana Derby. “My horse is a fighter. He had plenty of fight.”

Pavlovian, who was 21-1 in the Louisiana Derby, has an 82 Equibase rating, the lowest of all the Derby contenders. His top Equibase speed figure is 96 from his Louisiana Derby effort.

Look for this son of Pavel to challenge for the early lead or sit just off the pace and hope for the perfect front-running trip.

Kentucky Derby Betting Advice

He’s finished in the top 3 in seven of 10 starts but seems out of his league in this field, even though he’s improved after being fitted with blinkers to keep him more focused. Still hard to imagine he can finish in the top 5. No bet.

Notes

– Doug O’Neill won the Derby in 2012 with I’ll Have Another, who went on to win the Preakness but was scratched and retired the morning of the Belmont, and in 2016 with Nyquist (both owned by Reddam)

– The Cal-bred Derby winners are Morvich (1922), Swaps (1955), Decidedly (1962) and California Chrome (2014) … Edwin Maldonado will be riding in his first Derby.

– Worked 6 furlongs in 1:15.00 on April 19 at Santa Anita.

Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.

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