OKLAHOMA CITY — Devin Booker downloaded the quickly-stated question on what the keys will be for his Phoenix Suns in the first round of the playoffs against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder before pausing and laughing.
“Everything.”
Yep!
Oklahoma City is a leviathan, all rested up for Sunday’s Game 1 after the Suns went through a whole lot and a quick turnaround to get here.
While the league has now accustomed to the brilliance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his squad after we were all so enamored by it the previous two years en route to its first championship, the Thunder kept getting better.
They won 64 games despite being one of the most injured teams in the league. Third-Team All-NBA member last season Jalen Williams played only 33 games. Starting center Isaiah Hartenstein missed 35. Only two guys — Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace — reached 70 appearances.
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Devin Booker's and Jordan Ott's trust in the young Suns pays off
Devin Booker's and Jordan Ott's trust in the young Suns pays off
This is still the league’s best defense by a discernible margin, with two guys in the running for All-Defense spots, and Williams would have had a case to get a repeat nod had he been healthy.
While the Thunder hardly hit the offensive glass, it’s because they don’t have to. Imagine having that luxury. You are so excellent in other areas of the floor that the extra effort and slight risk of crashing to expose your transition defense is not necessary.
OKC boasts the No. 1 turnover percentage and is second in the amount it forces. The Thunder have the second-best opposing free-throw rate, much to the chagrin of everyone else, and is top-10 in their own free-throw rate. They sport an average defensive rebounding rate, where Phoenix will look to exploit one of its few stylistic openings, as it did in the regular season.
But all of this starts with Booker conquering the nightmares he’s had with this matchup since the juggernaut formed.
Over the last three seasons since this incredible Thunder run began, Booker is 1-5 against them while shooting 38.9% and averaging 18.3 points, 6.8 assists and 3.8 turnovers per game. His high for points is 24 and he hasn’t cracked double digits in field goals for any of those six contests.
In that time, Booker has dropped 40-plus on 12 different teams and at least 33 points on every other Western Conference opponent.
The one thing Booker has working for him is the foul line. He’s posting 9.8 FTA/G in those six fixtures, including marks of 15 in two of the last four meetings.
Oklahoma City’s advantageous whistle when it comes to how much physicality it is allowed to get away with has it loathed by just about everyone in the league, but Booker has at least been able to crack the code on how to make it work within his own game.
“That’s what they do,” Booker said of OKC’s physicality. “They pressure every possession. We do that a little bit too, so it’s gonna be a physical series and it’s gonna be fun.”
And lately, Booker is getting the star whistle Valley diehards have been clamoring for, going back a half-decade.
Booker took 23 free throws in the two play-in games, and for the regular season, he created a double-digit output 23 times, six more than any of his previous years.
The bumps and, let’s call it like it is, borderline foul-baiting he’s been trying to get the benefit of that other players in his class receive has been more consistent in the last few months. Golden State’s bench exploded a few times on Friday with some of the calls Booker drew. Congratulations to him on the long-overdue inauguration.
A source of belief for the Suns will lie in a 108-105 victory over OKC on Jan. 4 and a stingy 123-119 loss in Oklahoma City on Nov. 28, during which Phoenix refused to go away in a tight fourth quarter.
The former featured most of the relevant players on each side and was an excellent example of Booker’s strength in this matchup.
It has a case for the Suns’ win of the season, as it was the final cementing of their legitimacy through an identity built on intensity. What stood out in that one was the fouls the Thunder got called for, with them rather despondent most of the night, while the officials apparently respected Phoenix’s own physicality to the point of OKC not getting the leniency it is used to.
The Suns were +10 in free-throw attempts, won the offensive glass 12-2, and went +7 in 3-point makes.
Make no mistake about it, though, this was still OKC. It had an 18-point edge in the mid-second quarter, and the Suns had to drill big shot after big shot, including a career-high eight 3s for Jordan Goodwin. It was one of just three times this year he’s made more than three.
Even after his triples, Dillon Brooks still had to knock down a huge step-back 3, and Booker’s game-winner with the game tied was the decider.
But you saw vulnerability. The Thunder showed desperation throughout that second half, and they only amounted to 20 assists.
The dilemma, of course, is that those were the Suns of old. The thrills of Friday’s playoff advancement contained multitudes of reminders that this is still very much an ill-functioning unit at the moment.
Back when Phoenix beat OKC in January, that was a Suns team that could at least test the Thunder. Maybe it would only go five games. But those guys would snag at least a game and make Oklahoma City earn every single win otherwise.
The Suns will have to channel that form once more for more than just a quarter, which was all they could muster on Tuesday and Friday.
If they don’t, they will get run out of the gym by halftime.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren have only improved, now armed with championship pedigree for this next run. Williams surely would have showcased his own growth, too, had he not gone through two separate nagging injuries. Those three alone would be enough to smash Phoenix, but the largest development for OKC has been its supporting cast.
The lulls in the Thunder’s offense as last postseason went on were due to the lack of a reliable third ball-handler behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. Williams’ own inconsistencies showed at times, too.
Insert Ajay Mitchell, a 2024 second-round pick who would have had a chance at Sixth Man of the Year if he remained healthy.
Mitchell is a smooth-scoring lefty that blends right in with the downhill tenacity of the two other show-runners. Probably the most absurd OKC statistic this year is that when Mitchell played alongside Gilgeous-Alexander in 749 minutes, it outscored teams by 19 points per 100 possessions. That’s even better than the 15.5 net rating for SGA with Williams in 531 minutes.
Wallace made a run for Defensive Player of the Year as the league’s leader in total steals, doing so as teammates of Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso, who at any point in a game can look like the best perimeter defender in the world.
Even if 3-point shooting becomes a slight issue with either Caruso (3.2 3PA/G, 29.2%), Dort (5.4 3PA/G, 34.4%) or Wallace (3.7 3PA/G, 35.1%), Joe (6 3PA/G, 42.3%) continues to make strides being more offensively than a shooter and the Jared McCain (4.6 3PA/G 39.1%) acquisition looms large to swing at least a game or two.
The defense-to-offense transition is a 15-0 run waiting to happen. With how often Booker will get pressured and trapped, he and his teammates have to be smart with not only the ball but their shot decisions. Quick 3s better be the right ones, because if they don’t go in, now you’ve got the Thunder coming downhill at you off a miss.
“Any slip-up, they’ll make you pay for it,” Booker said. “Their runs are dangerous. … It’s gonna be a great test for us.”
Brooks and Jalen Green must avoid tail-spinning. They are prone to submarining the offense over just a few minutes or even a full shift. The Suns have been able to overcome those most of the time. They will not be afforded that luxury against OKC. A bad stint in any quarter could end the game.
A dynamic of the matchup we’ll figure out as it goes on is how the Suns match up with OKC’s size.
Phoenix starting center Mark Williams didn’t get to face Hartenstein in any of the meetings. We could see that in Game 1 on Sunday, but Williams missed Friday’s win due to left foot soreness and it’s unclear if this is just a day-to-day deal or something more.
If Williams does play, he’s got a lot to prove. He did not play well against the top-tier teams, and the more they spaced it out offensively and moved the ball, the more he had issues on defense.
Either way, that’ll make it a huge Oso Ighodaro series. He, Goodwin and other non-scoring threats individually will have to make the Thunder pay. They love playing off those types of players, so the glue guys have to contribute. Getting Grayson Allen back from his left hamstring strain would go a long way in helping that balance.
Ultimately, this is the epilogue of a wonderful surprise that was this Suns season. Our conclusions on the season are done. If this goes as expected, a dominant OKC sweep without the Suns taking any game down to the wire, no harm.
But does this group have one more surprise left in it?
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