Two teams will earn automatic promotion to the Premier League. One will surely be runaway Championship leaders Coventry City, but who else will join them? We ask the Opta supercomputer.
Coventry City will be promoted to the Premier League if they avoid defeat at Blackburn Rovers on Friday. Frank Lampard’s side have been outstanding this season, and the Sky Blues will surely return to the top flight for the first time since they were relegated almost 25 years ago.
Behind Coventry, though, there is a fascinating race to join them in the Premier League.
Just three points separate Ipswich Town in second and Middlesbrough in fifth, but who does the Opta supercomputer think will join Coventry in the automatic promotion spots? Ahead of Matchday 43 of the 2025-26 Championship season, we find out.
Who Will Be Promoted to the Premier League?
Ipswich could have really strengthened their place in the top two had they beaten relegation-threatened Portsmouth on Tuesday. However, the hosts caused an upset at Fratton Park, winning 2-0 to prevent the Tractor Boys from pulling away.
Kieran McKenna’s side remain in second place on 75 points, though, and still have a game in hand over those below them. That extra game is a tough fixture away at Southampton at the end of this month, however, so there is still plenty of work to be done.
Ipswich host Middlesbrough on Sunday in another massive clash in the promotion race at Portman Road, before they visit Charlton, West Brom and Saints, finishing their campaign at home to Queens Park Rangers.
When looking at fixture difficulty based on the Opta Power Rating of their opponents, they have the ninth-hardest run-in in the Championship.
Ipswich are looking to bounce straight back into the Premier League after relegation last season, and the Opta supercomputer still fancies them to do so. They earned automatic promotion in 71.9% of its 10,000 season simulations.
Millwall have been a real surprise package this season and remain in the hunt for the automatic promotion places. They are the only team in the top six in the Championship to have never played in the Premier League. The last time the Lions were in the top flight was in the 1989-90 season, when they were relegated from the old First Division.
They head into MD43 in third place, though, just two points behind Ipswich. Alex Neil’s men are at home to QPR on Saturday, before travelling to Stoke City and Leicester City, ending with a home fixture against Oxford United.
According to our fixture difficulty calculations, only West Brom have an ‘easier’ run-in than Millwall, who are given an 11.4% chance of finishing second.
Southampton are the form team in the Championship right now. Tonda Eckert’s side have won 12 and drawn three of their last 15 in the league, including a 3-0 home victory over Blackburn on Tuesday.
Granted, they have an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City as a potential distraction, having shocked Arsenal in the quarters, but Southampton look unstoppable at the moment.
They travel to Swansea City on Saturday before a midweek game at home to Bristol City. After their trip to Wembley, Saints host Ipswich at St. Mary’s in a potentially massive fixture, before heading to Preston North End on the final day.
Southampton’s fixture list is deemed slightly tougher than Ipswich’s, and given they’re still three points behind the Tractor Boys having played a game more, as well as a point behind Millwall, the supercomputer only saw them take second place in 10% of sims.
Middlesbrough are the only other team with a realistic chance of catching Ipswich, but they will surely need to get something from their trip to Portman Road on Sunday if that is to remain the case.
In fact, if Kim Hellberg’s side can win that one, they will be in a fairly strong position. They are deemed to have the third ‘easiest’ run-in even with that tricky game in Suffolk to come. After that, Middlesbrough are at home to Sheffield Wednesday and Watford, before a trip to Wrexham on the final day.
Boro are given just a 6.5% chance of finishing above Ipswich, Millwall and Southampton, though, so will likely have to settle for the play-offs.
Hull City are seven points off second, so it would take a minor miracle for them to sneak in, which they only did in 0.1% of simulations (so, you’re telling me there’s a chance?). The Tigers did at least secure a play-off spot 78.9% of the time, though.
Wrexham only eked their way into the play-offs in 12% of sims, while Derby County did so in 9.6%.
It has been a strong second half of the season for Norwich City, but they appear to have left it too late, only managing to make the play-offs in 0.3% of sims.
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Championship Promotion Race: With Coventry City on Verge of Reaching the Premier League, Who Will Join Them? Opta Analyst.
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