What impact will the result of Man City vs Arsenal have on the 2025-26 Premier League title race? We use the Opta supercomputer’s projections to help us understand.
While Arsenal don’t need to win at Manchester City on Sunday, it would take them to within touching distance of the Premier League title. But what if they draw, or even lose, at the Etihad Stadium?
Here, we look at how each result would affect the Opta supercomputer’s Premier League title projections.
If Arsenal Beat Manchester City
Title Projections: Arsenal 98%, Manchester City 2%
The Opta supercomputer is finding this game almost too close to call, with Arsenal winning 35.8% and Man City prevailing in 37.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Winning this match isn’t integral for Arsenal, but it would certainly ease their nerves if they did.
Some confidence can be gleaned from recent history against Pep Guardiola’s side, with the tide certainly turning in this fixture lately. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five against City in the Premier League (W2 D3), having lost their previous 12 top-flight clashes with them.
If City lose Sunday’s game, they’ll trail Arsenal by nine points with six games remaining. That means Arsenal would need to collect a maximum of 10 points from their last five matches to secure their first Premier League title since 2003-04.
An Arsenal win would see their projected chances of winning the 2025-26 Premier League title rise to 98%, with City sensationally coming back to secure the title in the remaining 2%.
If the Game Is Drawn
Title Projections: Arsenal 89%, Manchester City 11%
The Etihad Stadium is one of the toughest places to go as an away side. City are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League home games since losing 2-0 to Tottenham in their opening match there in August.
Their record at the Etihad versus Arsenal is excellent, too. Not since a 2-0 defeat to the Gunners in January 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini have they lost at home to them in the league. They are 10 unbeaten against the Gunners in Premier League home games, winning seven and drawing three.
It’s unlikely Arsenal will travel to Manchester with the aim of playing for just a point, but nobody (except City fans) would begrudge them attempting to see out a draw on Sunday.
A share of the spoils would mean Arsenal have got their toughest remaining game out of the way and they’d still hold a six-point advantage over City. Guardiola’s side would still have that game against Crystal Palace in hand, but even if they won that, they’d still need Arsenal to drop at least three points in their final five games to stand a chance of overtaking them in the table.
So, should this game end as a draw, the Opta supercomputer’s title projections would favour Arsenal to a greater degree (89%) than they already do ahead of the match (85.9%).
It’s worth mentioning that there is the potential for an extremely unlikely Premier League title play-off this season, but that would only remain a very slight possibility if this game ends in a 1-1 draw.
Premier League positions are decided in the following order:1. Points2. Goal difference3. Goals Scored4. Points won in head-to-head matches5. Away goals scored in head-to-head matches
As the game at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season ended 1-1, another 1-1 draw would mean that if the two teams somehow ended the campaign level on points, goals scored and goal difference, we’d see a Premier League title play-off.
Has that happened before? No. Would everyone (bar Arsenal fans) want to see that? Yes.
If Manchester City Beat Arsenal
Title Projections: Arsenal 69%, Manchester City 31%
A Man City win in this game would make the title race incredibly exciting.
They would reduce Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League to three points, and they’d still have a game in hand. Beating Arsenal would also help City’s goal difference, which is currently three lower than Mikel Arteta’s side.
City’s 2-0 League Cup final win over Arsenal last month started the Gunners’ run of three successive defeats in domestic competition. That final loss was followed by defeats to Southampton in the FA Cup and Bournemouth in the Premier League. They last lost four consecutively in February/March 2018… and that run included defeats to Man City in the EFL Cup final and Premier League.
Arsenal would remain the Opta supercomputer’s favourites in the title race, but it would reduce their projected chances to 69% from 85.9% at the time of writing.
It might surprise some people that the Gunners would still be projected to win the title in more than two-thirds of the 10,000 simulations even if they lose on Sunday, but hear us out.
City would still need to win three points more than Arsenal in their remaining matches, even though they do have a game in hand (against Crystal Palace), and that would just be enough to finish level on points with Arsenal. Goal difference would then be the deciding factor.
Based on the Opta Power Rankings, the average strength of Arsenal’s remaining opponents is lower than that of the opponents City face, too. So, it might be easier for Arsenal to rack up a better goal difference in those remaining games.
Clearly, a City win would stoke excitement and intrigue, but Arsenal would still be in the driving seat.
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Opta Supercomputer: How Will Man City vs Arsenal Result Affect Teams’ Premier League Title Chances? Opta Analyst.
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