Can the Gunners reach back-to-back UEFA Champions League semi-finals? We look ahead to Wednesday’s clash at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Sporting CP prediction and preview.
Sporting CP vs Arsenal: Key Stats
Arsenal are unbeaten against Sporting CP in European competition (W4 D4). They are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the second leg at 61.9%. The Gunners have lost just one of their last 12 matches against Portuguese teams (W6 D5) and are unbeaten in their last eight such home games (W6 D2). Sporting CP have won nine of their 10 previous European two-legged ties against English opposition.Arsenal are halfway towards reaching back-to-back UEFA Champions League semi-finals for the first time, though momentum is certainly not with them ahead of their second leg with Sporting CP.
The Gunners’ hopes of landing a first Premier League title in 22 years were dealt a huge blow last weekend after they lost 2-1 at home to Bournemouth.
It was the third defeat in four matches in all competitions for Mikel Arteta’s side, whose open play xG of 0.19 was their second-lowest in a Premier League home fixture on record.
Second-place Manchester City subsequently took full advantage with a 3-0 victory over Chelsea to cut the gap at the top to six points. Pep Guardiola’s side still have a game in hand, so there is now extra onus on next weekend’s blockbuster showdown between the sides at the Etihad Stadium.
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5 hours ago Oliver HopkinsArsenal, therefore, will be eager to build some positive momentum here by booking their place in the semi-finals.
Arteta’s side hold a 1-0 lead after last week’s first leg at Estádio José Alvalade, where Kai Havertz’s late strike sealed their 10th win in 11 Champions League games this season.
The historic signs are positive for Arsenal, who are unbeaten in their eight meetings with Sporting in European competition (W4 D4), while they have also avoided defeat in their last eight home games against Portuguese opposition (W6 D2).
The Gunners have progressed from 19 of their 20 two-legged knockout ties in Europe when they’ve won the first leg away from home. They have also lost just one of their last 23 European home games, a 1-0 defeat against eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain in last season’s semi-finals.
Arsenal’s have kept 16 clean sheets in their last 22 European matches at the Emirates, and another here would secure only a fourth victory from 10 European Cup/Champions League quarter-final ties.
Sporting, meanwhile, must beat Arsenal for the very first time if they are to reach their maiden semi-final in this competition, though they did progress in the 2022-23 Europa League last-16 tie between the sides on penalties after successive draws.
The Portuguese club have not won in England since beating Middlesbrough 3-2 in March 2005, failing to do so in their 10 attempts since (D5 L5).
Meanwhile, you must go back to September 1970 (4-0 against Floriana) for the last time Sporting won an away match in the knockout stages of this competition. They are winless in 10 since then (D3 L7). They have also won just one of their previous 14 European two-legged ties after losing the first leg at home.
Rui Borges’ side are no strangers to overturning first-leg deficits, though, having recovered from 3-0 down to beat Bodø/Glimt 5-3 on aggregate in the previous round.
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5 days ago David SegarThey have momentum, too. Saturday’s 1-0 victory over Estrela Amadora made it three straight wins in the Primeira Liga, in which they trail table-toppers Porto by five points with a game in hand.
On another promising note, Sporting have won nine of their 10 previous two-legged ties against English opposition, and are now aiming to become the first Portuguese side to win a Champions League quarter-final since José Mourinho guided FC Porto to glory 22 years ago.
The visitors will look for inspiration from the likes of Luis Suárez (five goals, two assists) and Francisco Trincão (four goals, three assists), both of whom have played a key role in their Champions League campaign with seven direct goal involvements apiece.
Luis Guilherme and Fotis Ioannidis are doubtful for the second leg, while Nuno Santos remains absent with a hamstring injury.
Martin Ødegaard should be available for Arsenal, despite limping off in the first leg with a knee injury. The Gunners are waiting to see if Bukayo Saka and Jurriën Timber can shake off muscle problems, though Mikel Merino remains absent.
Sporting CP vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Arsenal are unbeaten against Sporting in European competition (W4 D4); the Portuguese side have faced Arsenal more often in Europe without ever winning than against any other side.
Sporting did prevail in the sides’ only previous two-legged tie, winning their last-16 clash in the 2022-23 Europa League on penalties after two draws.
Arsenal have only lost one of their last 12 European matches against Portuguese opponents (W6 D5) and are unbeaten in their last eight such games on home soil (W6 D2).
Overall, English clubs have won their last 10 Champions League two-legged ties against Portuguese opposition – the most recent exception is Benfica’s 3-0 aggregate victory over reigning champions Liverpool in the 2005-06 round of 16 – as well as the nine previous quarter-final meetings in this competition.
Sporting CP vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer favours a home victory, giving Arsenal a 61.9% of winning this tie inside 90 minutes.
Sporting’s chances of winning are rated at 16.5%, with a draw at 21.6%.
Arsenal vs Sporting CP Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel Magalhães, William Saliba, Ben White, Declan Rice, Martín Zubimendi, Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard, Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyökeres
Head Coach: Mikel Arteta
Sporting CP: Rui Silva, Maximiliano Araújo, Gonçalo Inácio, Ousmane Diomande, Iván Fresneda, Hidemasa Morita, Morten Hjulmand, Pote, Francisco Trincão, Geny Catamo, Luis Suárez
Head Coach: Rui Borges
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Arsenal vs Sporting CP Prediction: Can Mikel Arteta’s Side Get Back on Track by Booking Champions League Semi-Final Spot? Opta Analyst.
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